详情
Do Implied Volatility Spreads Predict Market Returns in China?The Role of Liquidity Demand
We examine the information content of the call-put implied volatility spread (IVS) of
Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options. Empirically, the IVS significantly and negatively
predicts future SSE50 ETF returns at both weekly and monthly horizons. This predictability
is robust both in-sample and out-of-sample, which stands in contrast to prior evidence from
the U.S. options market. We explore several potential explanations and show that the IVS
is closely linked to the option-cash basis. Its predictability is consistent with the model of
Hazelkorn, Moskowitz, and Vasudevan (2023), where the option-cash basis reflects liquidity
demand common to both options and underlying equity markets.