Delta

  • 详情 Navigating the Post-COVID Market: A Prospective Analysis of Foreign Trade in the Pearl River Delta, China
    This paper aims to evaluate the market prospects for foreign trade enterprises in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China in the post-COVID era. Despite challenges posed by the pandemic, the market outlook for PRD is positive with global economy projected to recover and high demand for high-tech products such as elect ronics, machinery, and chemicals from developed countries. PRD businesses have adapted to changing market conditions and disruptions in the supply chain, and the Chinese government’s “Dual Circulation” strategy presents new opportunities for PRD foreign trade enterprises by boosting domestic consumption and market demand. To maintain competitiveness, businesses in the region need to adapt to the new normal and take advantage of market opportunities. [译]本文旨在评估后疫情时代中国珠江三角洲(PRD)地区外贸企业的市场前景。尽管疫情带来了挑战,但PRD的市场前景仍然乐观,全球经济预计将复苏,发达国家对电子、机械和化学品等高科技产品的需求也很高。PRD企业已经适应了不断变化的市场条件和供应链的中断,而中国政府的“双循环”战略通过促进国内消费和市场需求,为PRD外贸企业提供了新的机遇。为了保持竞争力,该地区的企业需要适应新常态,并利用市场机遇。
  • 详情 Differential Characteristics of Carbon Emission Efficiency and Coordinated Emission Reduction Paths Under Different Economic Development Stages: Evidence from China's Yangtze River Delta
    Regional carbon emission efficiency has differentiated characteristics under different economic development stages and patterns, and it is significant to identify such characteristics and formulate corresponding policies for high-quality regional development. Based on input-output data related to economic development and energy consumption, a comprehensive evaluation model of Super-SBM and Malmquist-Luenberger (ML) index was constructed to evaluate the spatial and temporal changes and driving forces of CEE, on the basis of which a proposal for collaborative carbon emission reduction zoning is proposed. The results indicated that the carbon emission efficiency (CEE) of the YRD shows a fluctuating upward trend with obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics, and the changes in CEE were closely related to the stage of economic development. The annual average CEE value during each period exhibited positive changes, indicating that economic development gradually shifted toward low carbonization. Moreover, the improvement of CEE gradually shifted from being driven by efficiency change to being driven by technological change. Finally, based on the carbon emissions and CEE characteristics of different cities, a carbon-neutral synergistic path is proposed in terms of industrial transformation, green development and technological support.
  • 详情 Does options trading convey information on futures prices?
    This paper studies the presence of informed trading in Taiwan stock index options (TXO) and analyzes the informational role of foreign institutions in incorporating information into Taiwan stock index futures (TX). We have found that only the option-induced part (OOI) of the total TX order imbalance can predict future TX prices, and the OOI calculated from open-buy TXO, defined by Ni et al. (2008), provides incremental predictability. This finding shows that the price predictability stems from the information flow resulting from option transactions rather than from liquidity pressure. We conclude further that option transactions from foreign institutions provide the most significant predictability, out-of-the-money option transactions in particular. These empirical results show that option transactions conducted by foreign institutions have played the primary role in conveying the information inherent in the TXO market to the TX market, foreign institutions being delta-informed traders. Retail investors, the major players in both the TXO and TX markets, have done almost nothing of significance with regard to TXO information transmission into the TX market, with the exception of some near-the-money and out-of-the-money options.
  • 详情 Venture Capitalist Directors and Managerial Incentives
    We examine the effect of board members with venture capital experience (i.e., VC directors) on executive incentives at publicly listed firms. VC directors serving on the compensation committee are associated with greater CEO risk-taking incentives (i.e., vega) and greater pay-for-performance sensitivity (i.e., delta). These effects are more substantial if VC directors are from highly reputable VC firms. Using Regulation S-K requirements to disclose attributes of nominated directors as an instrument, we show that these results are causal. We also document that prior finding of greater research intensity and innovation when VC directors serve on boards of public firms are in part explained by the presence of increased risk-taking incentives of the CEO instilled by such directors. Lastly, we find that having VC directors on nominating and/or governance committees is associated with a higher likelihood of forced CEO turnover.
  • 详情 Is warrant really a derivative? Evidence from the Chinese warrant market
    This paper first studies the Chinese warrant market that has been developing since August 2005. Empirical evidence shows that the market prices of warrants are much higher systematically than the Black-Scholes prices with historical volatility. The prices of a warrant and its underlying asset do not support the monotonicity, perfect correlation and option redundancy properties. The cumulated delta-hedged gains for almost all expired warrants are negative. The negative gains are mainly driven by the volatility risk, and the trading values of the warrants for puts and the market risk for calls. The investors are trading some other risks in addition to the underlying risk.
  • 详情 On the Pricing and Hedging of Volatility-linked Notes
    This paper investigates the pricing and hedging of a new volatility derivative in Mainland China, called volatility-linked notes. Firstly, we describe its underlying volatility-historical volatility of SHSCI and its specific clauses, then calibrate the underlying volatility using GARCH(1,1). It finds that the mean-reverting phenomenon of SHSCI volatility exists. Secondly, we propose two pricing model using replicated method and Monte-Carlo simulation, respectively. It works out similar outcomes. Finally, a Delta-hedging scheme of the volatility-linked notes is shown, however, the estimated result is not satisfactory as the absence of more efficient hedging instruments like index future.
  • 详情 An Empirical Assessment of Empirical Corporate Finance
    We empirically evaluate 20 prominent contributions to a broad range of areas in the empirical corporate finance literature. We assemble the necessary data and then apply a single, simple econometric method, the connected-groups approach of Abowd, Karmarz, and Margolis (1999), to appraise the extent to which prevailing empirical specifications explain variation of the dependent variable, differ in composition of fit arising from various classes of independent variables, and exhibit resistance to omitted variable bias and other endogeneity problems. In particular, we identify and estimate the role of observed and unobserved firm- and manager-specific characteristics in determining primary features of corporate governance, financial policy, payout policy, investment policy, and performance. Observed firm characteristics do best in explaining market leverage and CEO pay level and worst for takeover defenses and outcomes. Observed manager characteristics have relatively high power to explain CEO contract design and low power for firm focus and investment policy. Estimated specifications without firm and manager fixed effects do poorly in explaining variation in CEO duality, corporate control variables, and capital expenditures, and best in explaining executive pay level, board size, market leverage, corporate cash holdings, and firm risk. Including manager and firm fixed effects, along with firm and manager observables, delivers the best fit for dividend payout, the propensity to adopt antitakeover defenses, firm risk, board size, and firm focus. In terms of source, unobserved manager attributes deliver a high proportion of explained variation in the dependent variable for executive wealth-performance sensitivity, board independence, board size, and sensitivity of expected executive compensation to firm risk. In contrast, unobserved firm attributes provide a high proportion of variation explained for dividend payout, antitakeover defenses, book and market leverage, and corporate cash holdings. In part, these results suggest where empiricists could look for better proxies for what current theory identifies as important and where theorists could focus in building new models that encompass economic forces not contained in existing models. Finally, we assess the relevance of omitted variables and endogeneity for conventional empirical designs in the various subfields. Including manager and firm fixed effects significantly alters inference on primary explanatory variables in 17 of the 20 representative subfield specifications.
  • 详情 模型风险及其对衍生品定价的影响
    本文通过模拟交易员对冲衍生品空头的盈亏情况来研究模型风险以及它给衍生品定价和复 制带来的影响。本文检验了在参数复制和传统的 Delta 复制两种复制策略下,其复制误差与 模型选择、真实测度的漂移项和真实状态变量等的关系。本文还详细讨论了参数复制策略和 Delta 复制策略的优劣,以及模型风险对这两种复制策略的影响。?
  • 详情 Is Warrant Really a Derivative? Evidence from the Chinese Warrant Market
    China launched her warrant market in August 2005 in the split share structure reform of listed companies. As up to now, equity trading on margin and short-sale of any form are still prohibited in China. This warrant market enables investors to trade on information that otherwise might be prohibitively expensive to trade on. The Chinese warrant market created top trading volume and turnover with only a handful of different warrants traded. This paper first studies the Chinese warrant market. Empirical evidence shows that the market prices of warrants are much higher systematically than the Black-Scholes prices with historical volatility. Moreover, the paper documents ample evidence that the one-dimensional diffusion model does not apply well in the Chinese warrant market. The prices of a warrant and its underlying asset do not support the monotonicity, perfect correlation and option redundancy properties. The paper also studies the cumulated gains of a delta-hedged warrant portfolio. In the Chinese warrant market, the cumulated delta-hedged gains for almost all expired warrants are negative. The negative gains are mainly driven by the volatility risk, and the trading values of the warrants for puts and the market risk for calls. The investors are trading some other risks in addition to the underlying risk.
  • 详情 香港股票市场波动率风险溢酬实证研究
    本文通过构造恒生指数看涨期权的动态delta中性组合估计了香港股票市场的波动率风险溢酬,并对其时变的特征和影响因素进行了分析。我们发现,香港股票市场上的确存在显著为负的波动率风险溢酬,说明香港市场上的波动率的确是随机的,是市场中存在的另一个风险源。而香港投资者是厌恶波动率风险的,并通过购买股指期权规避这一风险,香港市场上的股指期权并非股票现货的冗余证券。不仅如此,香港股票市场上的波动率风险溢酬还是时变的,其最重要的影响因素是股票现货市场的波动率,股市当前的波动率越大,投资者对未来波动的预期和风险厌恶程度越高,越愿意为规避波动率风险支付更高的风险溢酬。