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  • 详情 Target's Earnings Purity and M&A Premium: Evidence from China
    The study introduces 'earnings purity,' a concept based on the 'gold content' of target earnings, to evaluate its impact on merger and acquisition (M&A) premiums. Our findings reveal that targets with higher earnings purity command increased valuations and premiums. Further analysis of the information effects uncovers a U-shaped relationship between earnings purity and negotiation duration, suggesting that elevated premiums might not always be justified. The heterogeneity test indicates that the effect of a target firm's earnings purity on M&A premiums is more pronounced in cross-border and inter-industry M&As. However, it is less influential in cases with larger target firms and better external conditions. These results highlight the dual aspects of M&As, presenting them as both advantageous and potentially hazardous.
  • 详情 Do Retail Investors Exploit Predictive Information from Institutional Trading?
    This paper provides new evidence on the predictive power of retail trading for future stock returns using tick data from the Chinese stock market. We explore sources of the predictive power from the novel perspective that sophisticated retail investors may exploit predictive information by observing limit order book and inferring institutional trading intentions. Employing a two-stage decomposition approach, we decompose the retail order imbalance into four components and find that the component related to retail investors’ perception of institutional trading intentions significantly contributes to the predictive power of the retail order imbalance for future returns, accounting for more than 15%.
  • 详情 The Impact of Population Aging on Corporate Digital Transformation: Evidence from China
    This paper examines the relationship between population aging and corporate digital transformation from the perspective of demographic changes. Generally, the findings indicate that population aging notably contributes to corporate digital transformation, mainly through increasing labor costs, including expected and actual labor costs. Further analysis suggests that the above effects are significantly weakened in samples of firms with lower levels of regional intellectual property protection, higher corporate financial constraints, and shorter-sighted managerial decision-making. Moreover, the economic consequences test implies aforementioned favorable effects can enhance corporate total factor productivity.
  • 详情 Do Active Chinese Equity Fund Managers Produce Positive Alpha? A Comprehensive Performance Evaluation
    We examine the performance of actively managed Chinese mutual Funds over the period 2002-2020. Using the bootstrap-based false discovery technique, we find that 19.25% of Chinese actively managed mutual funds produce positive-alpha, which contrasts with existing studies documented by others in developed markets. Our findings survive a battery of robustness tests. Unlike in developed markets, equilibrium accounting may not hold in China as the Chinese stock market is dominated by retail investors instead of mutual funds, and thus the mutual funds in China can be more skilled at the expense of the retail investors. We find supportive evidence of the applicability of the bootstrap-based false discovery rate method by conducting simulations.
  • 详情 Is There an Intraday Momentum Effect in Commodity Futures and Options: Evidence from the Chinese Market
    Based on high-frequency data of China's commodity market from 2017 to 2022, this article examines the intraday momentum effect. The results indicate that China's commodity futures and options have significant intraday reversal effects, and the overnight opening factor and opening to last half hour factor are more significant. These effects are driven, in part, by liquidity factors. This trend aligns with market makers' behavior, passively accepting orders during low liquidity and actively closing positions amid high liquidity. Furthermore, our examination of cross-predictive ability shows strong futures-to-options predictability, while the reverse is weaker. We posit options traders' Vega hedging as a key factor in this phenomenon, our study finds futures volatility changes can predict options’ return.
  • 详情 Institutions and Social Attitudes: The Origin and Impact of State Ownership Preferences in China
    This study examines the enduring effects of China’s planned economy on contemporary social attitudes. By leveraging spatial disparities in the historical distribution of state-owned enterprises and external shocks such as the First Five-Year Plan and the Third Front Construction movement, we find that a one percentage point increase in the historical SOE proportion of industrial output corresponds with a 0.57% to 0.89% increase in the contemporary preference for state-owned sectors. The results are robust after controlling the contemporary SOE employment share, and this effect does not apply to the younger generation born after the marketization reform. Furthermore, we provide evidence that city-level state ownership preferences significantly impact the likelihood of SOEs receiving subsidies, with this effect notably amplified in cities governed by locally-born leaders, but the share of locally-born leaders has been trending down.
  • 详情 Understand the Impact of the National Team: A Demand System Approach
    The Chinese government has actively traded in the stock market through governmentsponsored institutions, the National Team, since the 2015 market crash. I adopt Koijen and Yogo’s (2019) demand system approach in China’s stock market to understand the impact of government participation. Estimation results indicate the government tilts towards large, less risky, and SOE stocks. During the crash, government participation indeed stabilized the market: the large-scale purchases reduced the cross-sectional market volatility of annual return by 1.8% and raised the market price by 11%. When the market ffuctuation returns to normal, the government acts more like an active investor; its price impact remains high but does not contribute to the cross-sectional volatility. Based on the theoretical framework of Brunnermeier et al. (2020), I investigate the interaction between the Nation Team and retail investors to reveal the government trading strategy. No evidence shows that government participation signiffcantly distorts market information efficiency.
  • 详情 Return-Based Firm-Specific Sentiment Measure under the Unique 'T+1' Trading Rule in China
    Although sentiment-driven investors are believed to play an important role in the Chinese stock market, there are very few sentiment measures at the individual stock level based on their trading activities. Due to the unique “T+1” trading rule in China, the low overnight return of stocks reflects intensified trading activities from short-term speculators. Therefore, we construct a sentiment measure for individual stocks based on the close-to-open return (CTO). We find that CTO positively predicts future stock returns in the cross-section, supporting the idea that low CTO, as an indicator of sentiment-driven excess demand, leads to lower subsequent returns. This finding is not driven by firm-specific news and alternative explanations based on risks, investor attention, or investor underreaction. Further analyses suggest that investors overpay for low-CTO stocks because of their inherent preference for this type of stock.
  • 详情 Cooperative Culture and the Birth of Modern Enterprises in China: Evidence from the Signing of the Treaty of Shimonoseki
    The Treaty of Shimonoseki was signed in 1895 and led to the deregulation of Chinese private enterprise investment in state monopolized industries. Newly founded enterprises necessitated cooperation amongst member-owners for access to primitive capital. A spirit of cooperative behavior thus resulted in the birth of enterprises in China. We used Chinese prefecture-level panel data between 1880 and 1899 to demonstrate that an increase in the number of enterprises brought by the deregulation is more likely to form in regions that culturally nurture cooperative behavior. We also found a persistent influence of cooperative culture on foundation of enterprises today.
  • 详情 ESG Report Textual Similarity and Stock Price Synchronicity: Evidence from China
    This study examines the influence of ESG report textual similarity on stock price synchronicity within the Chinese A-share market. Using advanced textual analysis methods, including TF-IDF and LDA, we measure the textual similarity of ESG reports among industry peers. Our results reveal a positive association between ESG report textual similarity and stock price synchronicity, suggesting that ESG reports with high textual resemblance may not convey distinct market information. This research underscores the importance of textual distinctiveness in ESG reports and offers a fresh perspective on the role of non-financial information, particularly related to CSR, in stock pricing dynamics. By emphasizing the significance of ESG report textual distinctiveness, we contribute to the broader discourse on ESG disclosure behaviors and their implications for capital market efficiency.