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  • 详情 Riding on the green bandwagon: Supply chain network centrality and corporate greenwashing behavior
    This study empirically investigates the impact of supply chain network centrality on corporate greenwashing behavior. By constructing supply chain networks of Chinese A-share listed companies, we find a strong positive correlation between supply chain network centrality and corporate greenwashing behavior, with an increase of approximately 6.20%. The paper identifies the underlying mechanism as the contagion of the green bandwagon effect within the supply chain, which is observed specifically in the downstream network, particularly among corporate-customers. Additionally, we observe that the positive effects are more pronounced in companies with lower information asymmetry, as well as in labor- and capital-intensive industries and regions with disadvantaged economic conditions. These findings offer important insights for improving corporate environmental responsibility and curbing greenwashing practices.
  • 详情 Decoding the Nexus: Industry Litigation Risks and Corporate Misconduct in the Chinese Market
    This study examines the relationship between industry litigation risk and corporate misconduct using China's A-share listed companies’ data from 2007 to 2022. The findings indicate a significant and negative association, where companies in industries with higher median litigation amounts relative to their assets exhibit reduced incidents of misconduct. This suggests that businesses in high-risk litigation sectors may adopt more cautious practices to mitigate legal challenges and protect their reputations. The robustness of these findings is confirmed through a variety of tests, including a quasi-experimental setting of the chief judges rotation implemented in 2008. Furthermore, the study finds that external monitors including financial analysts’ site visits and local law firms moderate the negative relationship between litigation risk and misconduct. We further show that legal enforcement and moral capital are the two channels through which industry litigation risk impacts corporate misconduct. Our findings underscore the role of litigation risk in shaping peer firms' behavior.
  • 详情 Animal spirits: Superstitious behavior by mutual fund managers
    Using a unique dataset from China spanning 2005 to 2023, we investigate how superstitious beliefs influence mutual fund managers’ risk-taking behavior and how this influence evolves over their careers. We find a significant 6.82% reduction in risk-taking during managers’ zodiac years, traditionally considered unlucky in Chinese culture. This effect is particularly pronounced among less experienced managers, those without financial education backgrounds, and those with lower management skills. The impact also intensifies during periods of high market volatility. Our findings challenge the traditional dichotomy between retail and professional investors, showing that even professional fund managers can be influenced by irrational beliefs early in their careers. However, the diminishing effect of superstition with experience and expertise suggests a gradual transition towards more rational decision-making. Our results provide insights into the process by which financial professionals evolve from exhibiting behavior akin to retail investors to becoming the rational actors often assumed in financial theory.
  • 详情 Estimating the Term Premium: Sample Periods Matter
    Estimates of canonical affine term structure model parameters are highly sensitive to sample periods. For example, depending on whether the sample starts in 1961 or 1981, the 5-5 forward risk-neutral rate for September 1981 differs by 4.6 percentage points or 98% of the latter. The estimated response of this rate to high-frequency monetary policy shocks differs by a factor of three, even within a fixed sample for the monetary policy transmission regression. We suggest that a shifting endpoint model can mitigate these issues. Additionally, we provide new estimates of the effects of monetary policy shocks on long-term risk-neutral rates.
  • 详情 Does social media make banks more fragile? Evidence from Twitter
    Using a sample of U.S. commercial banks from 2009 to 2022, we find that the flow of non-core deposits, rather than that of core deposits, becomes more sensitive to bank performance as banks receive increased attention on Twitter. This effect is particularly pronounced during periods of poor bank performance, when Twitter discussions are more influential, and for banks with more liquidity mismatch. Our results suggest that social media, rather than merely disseminating information about bank performance, makes depositors aware of their peers’ attention to banks, thereby intensifying the sensitivity of deposit outflows to weak fundamentals.
  • 详情 Sustainable Dynamic Investing with Predictable ESG Information Flows
    This paper proposes the concepts of ESG information flows and a predictable framework of ESG flows based on AR process, and studies how ESG information flows are incorporated into and affect a dynamic portfolio with transaction costs. Two methods, called the ESG factor model and the ESG preference model, are considered to embed ESG information flows into a dynamic mean-variance model. The dynamic optimal portfolio can be expressed as a traditional optimal portfolio without ESG information and a dynamic ESG preference portfolio, and the impact of ESG information on optimal trading is explicitly analyzed. The rich numerical results show that ESG information can improve the out-of-sample performance, and ESG preference portfolio has the best out-of-sample performance including the net returns, Sharpe ratio and cumulative return of portfolios, and contribute to reducing risk and transaction costs. Our dynamic trading strategy provides valuable insights for sustainable investment both in theory and practice.
  • 详情 企业 ESG 表现对绿色创新绩效的影响研究 ——来自中国 A 股上市公司的证据
    摘 要:本文基于利益相关者理论、信号传递理论和委托代理理论分析了企业 ESG 表现对绿色创新绩效可能的影响及其机制,并以 2009—2021 年中国 A 股上市公司为样本,实证分析了企业 ESG 表现的绿色创新效应。从机制分析发现,ESG 表现主要通过缓解融资约束、提高人力资本水平促进企业绿色创新绩效。从拓展性研究发现,ESG 表现的三个子维度都有助于提升绿色创新绩效,且公司治理表现的提升效应最强;ESG 表现不仅提高企业策略性绿色创新绩效、独立绿色创新绩效,还可提升实质性绿色创新绩效、合作绿色创新绩效。
  • 详情 Partnership as Assurance: Regulatory Risk and State–Business Equity Ties in China
    Recent studies highlight the resurgence of state capitalism, with the state increasingly acting as equity investors in private firms. Why do state--business equity ties, including partial and indirect state ownership in private firms, proliferate in weakly institutionalized contexts like China? While conventional wisdom emphasizes state-driven explanations based on static evidence, I argue that regulatory risk reshapes business preferences, prompting firms to seek state investors and expanding state--business equity ties. These ties facilitate information exchange and signal political endorsement under regulatory scrutiny. Focusing on China's crackdown on the Internet and IT sectors, difference-in-differences analyses of all investments from 2016 to 2022 reveal a rise in state--business equity ties post-crackdown. In-depth interviews with investors along with quantitative analysis, demonstrate that shifts in business preferences drive this change. This study shows the resurgence of state capitalism is driven not only by the state but also by businesses in response to regulatory risks.
  • 详情 Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index: A Generative AI Approach and An Application to Monetary Policy Transmission
    We construct a daily Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index by applying GPT-4o to Chinese news articles. Our method outperforms traditional models in several validation tests, including a test based on a suite of machine learning models. Applying this index to household-level data, we find that after monetary easing, an important group of homebuyers (who have a college degree and are aged between 30 and 50) in cities with more optimistic housing sentiment have lower responses in non-housing consumption, whereas for homebuyers in other age-education groups, such a pattern does not exist. This suggests that current monetary easing might be more effective in boosting non-housing consumption than in the past for China due to weaker crowding-out effects from pessimistic housing sentiment. The paper also highlights the need for complementary structural reforms to enhance monetary policy transmission in China, a lesson relevant for other similar countries. Methodologically, it offers a tool for monitoring housing sentiment and lays out some principles for applying generative AI models, adaptable to other studies globally.
  • 详情 Legal Information Transparency and Capital Misallocation: Evidence from China
    This paper investigates how transparency in lawsuit information affects capital allocation and aggregate industrial production. Greater transparency enhances the availability of information about firms' fundamentals, which can influence resource distribution. We exploit regional variations in courts' compliance with mandated judicial document disclosures in China, implemented since 2014, as a natural experiment. For firms with initially high marginal revenue products of capital (MRPK), a 10-percentage-point increase in legal transparency results in a 4.4% increase in physical capital and a 7.9% reduction in MRPK, relative to firms with lower MRPK. Additionally, regions with higher transparency experience a rise in aggregate output. Further analysis differentiating firms by ownership type, public listing status, and industry-level contract intensity enhances the robustness of our findings.