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  • 详情 An Economic Assessment of China’s Climate Damage Based on Integrated Assessment Framework
    Quantifying the economic loss from climate change in China is crucial for understanding the potential costs and benefits of climate policy within the context of carbon neutrality. This study develops a multidisciplinary and integrated assessment framework for climate damage, which uses the Beijing Climate Center Simple Earth System Model (BCC-SESM) to estimate climatic data under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios with the medium Shared Social-economic Pathway (SSP2) scenario in China. This paper estimates climate damage in eight major sectors by a bottom-up approach, makes substantive revisions and calibrations for the sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China based on the FUND model, and formulates the aggregate climate damage function. Results show that under the Business-as-Usual RCP8.5 scenario, by 2050 human health damage accounts for the largest share (61.92%) of the total climate loss, followed by sea-level rise damage (18.57%) and water resources damage (5.84%). Climate damage in non-market sectors reaches 14.64 trillion CNY, which is a 4.8-fold increase over the climate damage of market sectors which is only 3.02 trillion CNY. The total climate damage function for China is a quadratic function of temperature rise, with climate damage of 5.36%, 5.67%, 5.74%, and 8.16% of the GDP by 2050 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 respectively, indicating that the marginal climate damage increases non-linearly with temperature rise.
  • 详情 Twins, Income, and Happiness: Evidence from China
    We estimate the causal effect of income on happiness using a unique dataset of Chinese twins. This allows us to address omitted variable bias and measurement errors. Our findings show that individual income has a large positive effect on happiness, with a doubling of income resulting in an increase of 0.26 scales or 0.37 standard deviations in the four-scale happiness measure. We also find that income matters most for males and the middle-aged. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for various biases when studying the relationship between socioeconomic status and subjective well-being.
  • 详情 Supplier Concentration and Analyst Forecasting Bias
    This study examines the relationship between analyst forecast dispersion or accuracy and supplier concentration of listed firms in China from 2008 to 2019. Our findings suggest that higher supplier concentration is associated with lower analyst forecast dispersion, which can be attributed to the increased attention it receives from analysts. Moreover, this effect is more pronounced when firms have less bargaining power and higher institutional ownership, indicating a greater reliance on the supply chain. Our study highlights the importance of disclosing supply chain information, which provides insight beyond traditional financial information.
  • 详情 A multidimensional approach to measuring the risk tolerance of households in China
    Evidence from the U.S. and Europe suggests that current risk assessment tools used by researchers and financial professionals to determine individuals’ risk tolerance and provide suitable portfolio recommendations may be flawed due to “mis”perceptions of risk. Limited research has examined the reliability of these tools as measures of relative risk tolerance for households in emerging economies like China. This study develops a multidimensional index of risk tolerance specifically tailored for Chinese households using a psychometric approach. The effectiveness of this multidimensional index in predicting individuals’ financial decisions is tested and compared to traditional unidimensional measures of risk tolerance commonly used in developed countries. The findings indicate that multidimensional measures are more consistent and significant predictors of Chinese households’ investment decisions. Additionally, the study uncovers evidence that cultural differences, related to market expectations and social networks, which are often overlooked in U.S. and European models, play a crucial role in shaping individuals' risk perceptions and investment choices in China. Robustness checks were conducted to account for potential endogeneity between risk tolerance and investment decisions. The findings provide valuable insights for researchers and financial professionals seeking to develop more accurate risk assessment tools that capture risk attitudes and perceptions in China and other developing countries. By adopting a multidimensional approach that accounts for cultural and psychosocial factors, these improved tools can enhance the precision of risk evaluation and facilitate more appropriate investment recommendations.
  • 详情 Do Analysts Disseminate Anomaly Information in China?
    This study examines whether sell-side analysts have the ability to disseminate information consistent with anomaly prescriptions in China. I adopt 192 trading-based and accounting-based anomaly signals to identify undervalued and overvalued stocks. Analysts tend to give more (less) favorable recommendations and earnings forecasts to undervalued (overvalued) stocks. On analyzing the information content, I find that analyst recommendations and earnings forecasts are consistent with accounting-based information rather than trading-based information. Analysts make recommendations and earnings forecasts consistent with anomalies, especially when firms experience relatively bad firm-level information. Additionally, undervalued (overvalued) stocks are associated with high (low) analyst coverage. The results indicate that analysts may contribute to mitigating anomaly mispricing and improving market efficiency in China.
  • 详情 Cream-skimming in Private Loan Market: Evidence from the Opening of High-Speed Railway
    This study investigates the association between the expansion of formal finance through the opening of high-speed railway (HSR) and the risk of private lending in China, using data from China Judgments Online. The study employs a difference-in-differences approach and reveals that the cities connected by HSR have a greater risk of private lending and that the formal finance expansion leads to a cream-skimming effect on private lending. The HSR enhances the efficiency of product supply and pricing of formal financial institutions, which results in the expansion of banks. However, private lending relies heavily on social networks, which limits the direct effect of HSR on it. Consequently, the formal finance expansion facilitated by HSR has a significant cream-skimming effect on private lending, which increases the risk of private lending. These results make a significant contribution to the existing literature on the economic implications of formal financial expansion for private lending.
  • 详情 Climate warming risk and urban-rural income inequality: Evidence from prefecture-level cities in China
    This paper investigate whether and how local climate warming affects urban-rural income inequality. Our empirical results reveal that a rise in Climate warming risk leads to an increase in urban-rural income inequality, which is largely unaffected by a battery of robustness checks and endogeneity concerns. The analysis of economic mechanisms shows that climate warming risk impacts urban-rural income inequality mainly by reducing the output of the primary sector. Notably, we uncover evidence that the amplifying effect of climate warming risk is not homogeneous across the cross-section, particularly pronounced in prefectures with lower urban-rural integration and poorer rural financial services, but with high share of rural population. Overall, our research confirms the notion that climate warming risk has an important implication in shaping Chinese urban-rural income inequality.
  • 详情 Digital Economy, CO2 Emissions and China’s Environmental Sustainable Development— An analysis based on TVP-VAR model
    The growth of digital economy and sustainable development of environment are important issues related to high-quality economic development in the new era. This paper selects the yearly data of China from 2007 to 2021, constructs the China’s Environmental Performance Index, and establishes the TVP-VAR model to investigate the dynamic time-varying relationship between digital economy growth, CO2 emissions, and sustainable development of environment in short, medium and long-term. The results show that the relationships among them are time-varying at all terms. Specifically, in first, the growth of the digital economy exerts a negative impulse on CO2 emissions, and the short-term effect is greater than the long-term effect. Secondly, there exist positive impulses between the growth of the digital economy and sustainable development of environment. And CO2 emissions has a negative impact on sustainable development of environment. Thirdly, they have same influencing tendencies at certain time points, but different impact degrees. The impact of the digital economy development on environmental sustainable development has significantly increased since the COVID-19 outbreak. Therefore, the development of digital economy can effectively reduce CO2 emissions and promote the sustainable development of the environment.
  • 详情 Blockchain+Audit: An Important Tool for Enterprise Internal Control and Risk Management
    Establishing a comprehensive risk management system and establishing a sound and effective internal control mechanism are important conditions for the survival and healthy development of enterprises. Enterprises should continue to innovate their internal control mechanisms, continuously improve and strengthen their internal control and risk management functions, continuously improve their internal control effectiveness, and assist in high-quality development of enterprises. The article elaborates that the digital transformation of auditing helps to achieve internal audit goals and improve the effectiveness of internal control; Blockchain technology, due to its excellent characteristics of distributed decentralization, authenticity, transparency, and tamper resistance, will help transform the methods of financial and accounting business and audit supervision; The application of blockchain technology in the field of auditing will inevitably lead to the reshaping of audit work models; Blockchain technology will become a trigger point for the audit revolution, comprehensively empowering audit and risk management work. The article introduces JD's blockchain ABS standardization solution, while Tencent and TCL Group's industrial blockchain solve the reliable transmission of trust and value at low cost, confirming that the close combination of blockchain technology with enterprise finance and auditing can assist internal control and play an important risk prevention and control role in enterprise operations. The "blockchain+audit" can achieve online real-time audit, risk assessment and warning, and data analysis becomes the core of audit content; Blockchain+auditing will become an important tool for internal control and risk management in enterprises.
  • 详情 Why China's Housing Policies Have Failed
    This paper reviews the current housing crisis in China and explores the roles of supply-demand imbalances and local governments in the real estate sector. To prevent the housing downturn from further dragging down economic growth, Beijing suspended the financing restrictions on developers imposed in August 2020. These restrictions, known as the “three red lines” that limited new borrowing by developers, led Chinese property developers to default on a record number of debt obligations and triggered the most serious housing slump China has seen since 1998. The property sector saw its value added decline by more than 5 percent in 2022, even as the overall economy grew at 3 percent. But the current dynamics in the housing market reflect a repeated pattern: Loosening financing restrictions on developers and using housing as a macroeconomic stabilization tool risks reinforcing the boom-bust housing cycle. China’s real estate sector is a systemic problem. Without serious reforms to address concerns such as supply-demand imbalances and local governments’ deep connections with real estate, housing slumps like the one in 2022 may recur.