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  • 详情 中国A股市场不确定性溢价与融资融券的不对称性
    本文基于Jurado et al.(2015)提出的大数据分析方法,提出了基于中国整体经济和金融市场不确定性的个股不确定性的度量方法,并检验了在存在卖空限制的中国A股市场中的不确定性的定价,着重研究了融资融券的不对称性对个股不确定性定价的影响。股票特质性波动率刻画了股票收益率中不能被市场风险因子解释的波动,通常被用于度量不确定性,本文提出其中与宏观金融不确定性的相关部分才会在市场中被定价。本文提出利用股票收益率与宏观金融不确定性指数的绝对相关系数来刻画在市场中被定价的个股不确定性,并发现不确定性越高的股票预期收益越低,即不确定性溢价在A股为负,这与Miller(1977)的理论相一致,即在存在卖空限制的市场上,不确定性越大的股票其价值被高估程度越大,因此预期收益率越低。本文进一步发现融资融券限制放开之后,不确定性的负溢价略有降低,市场的定价效率有所改善但并不明显,反映了市场中存在的卖空限制和隐性卖空成本较高,及其对市场定价效率的负面影响。因此,在中国A股市场合理地放开融资融券限制,特别是有效降低融券成本、引入长期投资者提供优质券源,能够降低融资融券的不对称性,改善市场的定价效率,从而更好地发挥金融市场的资源配置作用。
  • 详情 The Real Effects of China’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions Trading Program
    China’s emissions trading system applies a two-stage emissions intensity-based compliance quota allocation scheme different from the cap-and-trade systems prevalent in developed economies. It was designed to accommodate the country’s socioeconomic complexities and implemented following a learning-by-doing approach. Compliance firms significantly expanded green investment and production workforce. Their climate decisions are influenced by state ownership and regional heterogeneity. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and less liberal market firms increased hiring, but not investment; non-SOEs and more liberal market firms grew investment. There are mixed welfare effects: compliance firms maintained productivity and efficiency; however, ordinary workers’ real wages were reduced, more prominent in SOEs.
  • 详情 Research on Spillover Effect of Foreign Market Risk on Chinese Capital Market from Perspective of Full Financial Opening-up
    Starting from document research, this paper analyzes the mechanism of the risk spillover effect from developed capital markets to the Chinese capital market. After that, this paper conducts an empirical study on the risk spillover effect of developed capital markets on the Chinese capital market by using the DCC-GARCH model. Then the impact degree of global major stock market fluctuations on the Chinese stock market is measured. The analysis shows that there exists a significant risk spillover effect of developed capital markets on the Chinese capital market, but the effect began to weaken after the financial crisis and the size of the spillover effect can be affected by macro factors such as geographical locations, foreign trade, and foreign investment.
  • 详情 The Prospect Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Empirics
    We propose a Capital Asset Pricing Model where investors exhibit prospect preferences. In equilibrium, we find that agents seek an optimal trade-off between expected returns, variance, and skewness. All assets in the economy are then priced by a three-factor model, which augments the security market line with two factors that respectively capture positive and negative coskewness with the market portfolio. Using U.S. stock market data, we find evidence consistent with these predictions. In additional tests, we find that the results are stronger among stocks traded by less sophisticated investors. Overall, prospect preferences have a substantial effect on stock prices.
  • 详情 Implied Equity Premium and Market Beta
    We extend the ex-ante mean-variance (SVIX) asset pricing models of Martin (2017) and Martin-Wagner (2019) to a mean-variance-asymmetry (AVIX) framework by incorporating higher-moment and co-moment risk in asset pricing. Our proposed AVIX model is risk-neutral with left-tail asymmetries in returns to correct the SVIX approach's downside bias. We derive an option implied market beta of a stock as the weighted average of the betas of SVIX and AVIX. Empirically, the implied beta has significant predictability of risk/return relationship We develop an investible portfolio (MKT*) that mimics realized outcomes on the implied market index adjusted for volatility asymmetry.
  • 详情 Relative Investor Sentiment
    We propose a new investor sentiment index by estimating the differences in variance,skewness, and kurtosis from realized stock returns and option implied moments. We show that our index cannot be explained by risk factors such as market risk, firm size, value, or profitability. Furthermore, we present evidence that this correlation can be exploited for momentum strategies, which perform significantly better during high-stimulation periods. In fact, our methodology can be extended to a daily sentiment measure and stock-specific sentiment indices.
  • 详情 When Price Discovery and Market Quality Are Most Needed: The Role of Retail Investors During Pandemic
    Using the Boehmer, Jones, Zhang, and Zhang (2021) algorithm, we identify a broad swath of marketable retail investor orders in the U.S. market during the pandemic. The marketable retail trading volumes rapidly rise from $325 billion in 2019 to $852 billion at mid-2020, and stay high for the next two years. The retail order flows positively predict cross-sectional returns over various horizons, and are associated with wider future effective spreads and higher future volatilities, as well as less market participations by high frequency traders and short-sellers. We find supportive evidence for informed and uninformed retail hypotheses.
  • 详情 Tracking Retail Investor Activity
    We provide an easy method to identify purchases and sales initiated by retail investors using recent, widely available U.S. equity transactions data. Individual stocks with net buying by retail investors outperform stocks with negative imbalances by approximately 10 basis points over the following week. Less than half of the predictive power of marketable retail order imbalances is attributable to order flow persistence; contrarian trading (a proxy for liquidity provision) and public news sentiment explain little of the remaining predictability. There is suggestive (but only suggestive) evidence that retail marketable orders contain firm-level information that is not yet incorporated into prices.
  • 详情 Can Shorts Predict Returns? A Global Perspective
    Using multiple short sale measures, we examine the predictive power of short sales for future stock returns in 38 countries from July 2006 to December 2014. We find that the days-to-cover ratio and the utilization ratio measures have the most robust predictive power for future stock returns in the global capital market. Our results display significant cross-country and cross-firm differences in the predictive power of alternative short sale measures. The predictive power of shorts is stronger in countries with non-prohibitive short sale regulations and for stocks with relatively low liquidity, high shorting fees, and low price efficiency.
  • 详情 Reputation Concerns of Independent Directors:Evidence from Individual Director Voting
    Using a director-level dataset of board proposal voting by independent directors of public companies, we analyze the effects of career concerns and current reputation stock on independent directors in their voting behavior. Younger directors and directors in their second (and last) terms, who have stronger career concerns, are more likely to be aligned with investors rather than the managers. Their dissenting behavior is eventually rewarded in the market place in the form of more outside career opportunities. Directors with higher reputation stocks (measured by positive news media mentioning and the number of directorships) are also more likely to dissent. Finally, we find that career concerns are significantly stronger among directors who already enjoy higher reputation.