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  • 详情 Risk Spillovers between Industries - New Evidence from Two Periods of High and Low Volatility
    This paper develops a network to analyze inter-industry risk spillovers during high and low volatility periods. Our findings indicate that China's Industrials and Consumer Discretionary exhibit the greatest levels of spillovers in both high and low volatility states. Notably, our results demonstrate the "event-driven" character of structural changes to the network during periods of pronounced risk events. At the same time, the economic and financial network exhibits clear "small world" characteristics. Additionally, in the high volatility stage, the inter-industry risk contagion network becomes more complex, featuring greater connectivity and direct contagion paths. Furthermore, concerning the spillover connection between finance and the real sector, the real economy serves as a net exporter of risk. The study's findings can assist government agencies in preventing risk contagion between the financial market and the real economy. The empirical evidence and policy lessons provide valuable insights for effective risk management.
  • 详情 An Option Pricing Model Based on a Green Bond Price Index
    In the face of severe climate change, researchers have looked for assistance from financial instruments. They have examined how to hedge the risks of these instruments created by market fluctuations through various green financial derivatives, including green bonds (i.e., fixed-income financial instruments designed to support an environmental goal). In this study, we designed a green bond index option contract. First, we combined an autoregressive moving-average model (AMRA) with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model (GARCH) to predict the green bond index. Next, we established a fractional Brownian motion option pricing model with temporally variable volatility. We used this approach to predict the closing price of the China Bond–Green Bond Index from 3 January 2017 to 30 December 2021 as an empirical analysis. The trend of the index predicted by the ARMA–GARCH model was consistent with the actual trend and predictions of actual prices were highly accurate. The modified fractional Brownian motion option pricing model improved the pricing accuracy. Our results provide a policy reference for the development of a green financial derivatives market, and can accelerate the transformation of markets towards a more sustainable economic development model.
  • 详情 Firm Engagement in Belt and Road Initiative and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Evidence from China
    We construct firm-level indicators to capture the engagement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, henceforth) via textual analysis. We find that higher firm engagement in BRI predicts higher stock returns in the subsequent 12 months. The top 10% high-BRI firms have 12.42% higher annual returns than bottom 10% low-BRI firms in China A-Share market. Additionally, two fundamental channels of increased earnings and reduced liabilities explain the higher expected returns of high-BRI firms. Furthermore, we reveal that the phenomenon is more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises. For large-cap firms, BR Report is a more effective indicator for predicting future stock returns, while BR Beta performs better for small-cap firms. These findings contribute to the measurement of firm engagement in BRI and its impact on the stock market.
  • 详情 Does ETF improve or impede firm ESG performance
    This paper investigates the effect of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the ESG performance of their underlying firms. Using data from China, we find that ETFs enhance the ESG performance of their underlying firms. This finding remains consistent after several robustness and endogeneity tests. Further, we show that the effect is more pronounced for non-SOEs, firms in low-polluting industries, and firms at growth and maturity stages. Studying the mechanisms behind these results, we find that ETFs mitigate the corporate agency problems, enhance the willingness of managers to invest in ESG, and improve the ESG performance.
  • 详情 中国房地产市场前景分析(Analysis of China's Economy System Faiure)
    2010年中国一些大城市的房地产市场成交量大幅下降。基于对一些基本经济学思想的理性重构和对房地产价格泡沫的分析叙述,我得出结论,这应该是由于获利消失投资需求和不断增长供给之间的巨大缺口,未来中国将可能爆发金融危机。我建议政府应该减持国有股份。
  • 详情 Centralized customers hurting employees? Customer concentration and enterprise employment
    Based on the sample data of Chinese listed companies, this paper finds that the increase in customer concentration significantly reduces the level of enterprise employment. The research results are robust to a series of tests. Further analysis shows that the increase of financing constraints, the increase of enterprise risk and the decrease of profitability are the mechanism of customer concentration affecting enterprise employment. In addition, the negative correlation between customer concentration and enterprise employment is stronger for enterprises with small size, fierce industry competition, and increasing economic policy uncertainty.
  • 详情 The Unintended Real Effects of Regulator-Led Minority Shareholder Activism: Evidence from Corporate Innovation
    We investigate the unintended real effects of regulator-led minority shareholder activism on corporate innovation. We use manually collected data from the China Securities Investor Services Center (CSISC), a novel regulatory investor protection institution controlled by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) that holds 100 shares of every listed firm. We find that by exercising its shareholder rights, the CSISC substantially curtails the innovation output of targeted firms. This effect is amplified in cases involving a high level of myopic pressure and few innovation incentives. We further observe variation in the real effects of different intervention methods. Textual analysis reveals that CSISC intervention with a myopic topic and negative tone contributes to a decrease in innovation. The results of a mechanism analysis support the hypothesis that regulator-led minority shareholder activism induces managerial myopia and financial constraints, impeding corporate innovation. Furthermore, CSISC intervention not only diminishes innovation output but also undermines innovation efficiency. In summary, our findings suggest that regulator-led minority shareholder activism exacerbates managerial myopia to cater to investors and financial constraints, ultimately stifling corporate innovation.
  • 详情 High Quality or Low Quality? The Impact of CSR on Green Innovation from Perspectives of Willingness and Ability to Innovate
    Green innovation is increasingly becoming a key way to address environmental issues. Due to the negative impact of green patent bubbles on sustainable development, this paper emphasizes the significance of green innovation quality. Using data from China’s A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2020, this paper investigates the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on green innovation quality. The findings suggest that CSR promotes high-quality green innovation while inhibiting low-quality green innovation. Willingness to innovate and ability to innovate are the mechanisms through which CSR influences high-quality green innovation.
  • 详情 Housing Price and Credit Environment: Evidence from China
    In this paper, we use a unique dataset of the List of Dishonest Judgment Debtors to explore the impact on the social credit environment of the increasing housing prices in China. We find that housing price has a negative impact on the local credit environment. Dominance analysis suggests that housing price contributes to the model R-squared (R2) by an overwhelming majority, suppressing any other economic or social factors in explaining the deteriorating credit environment. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the rule of law and moral standards mitigate the negative influence of high housing prices, while income inequality exacerbates the influence.
  • 详情 Measuring Systemic Risk Contribution: A Higher-Order Moment Augmented Approach
    Individual institutions marginal contributions to the systemic risk contain predictive power for its potential future exposure and provide early warning signals to regulators and the public. We use higher-order co-skewness and co-kurtosis to construct systemic risk contribution measures, which allow us to identify and characterize the co-movement driving the asymmetry and tail behavior of the joint distribution of asset returns. We illustrate the usefulness of higher-order moment augmented approach by using 4868 stocks living in the Chinese market from June 2002 to March 2022. The empirical results show that these higher-order moment measures convey useful information for systemic risk contribution measurement and portfolio selection, complementary to the information extracted from a standard principal components analysis.