Using annual time series data (1978-2010), the present paper examines the nexus between financial intermediation development and economic fluctuation in China. The time series properties of the data are analyzed by bounds testing approach, ARDL model and vector error-correction model. The empirical results show that, there is long-term negative equilibrium relationship between financial intermediation development and economic fluctuation margin. However, although the short-term dynamics of volatility in economy growth can make adjustments in light of the long-term equilibrium relationship, it is not enough for economic fluctuation margin to revert to the equilibrium only through the error correction mechanism. Meanwhile, using the Granger causality test based on error correction model, the present paper finds the empirical evidence to support unidirectional Granger causality from financial intermediation development to economic fluctuation margin.

The topic about the nexus of economic fluctuation and financial development in China is being on cutting-edge research. Using monthly time series data from 2001 to 2012 in China, the present paper examines the nexus of fluctuation of economic growth and financial development. Based on an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model with exogenous variables, the present paper suggests that financial development has statistically significantly reduced fluctuation of economic growth, which is in line with theoretical expectation that financial development as a shock absorber to mitigate economic volatility.

内容摘要：中国经济发展的重要目标之一就是保持国民经济快速平稳增长，实现这一目标必然要求从战略高度审视经济波动问题，把提高经济增长质量作为经济社会发展的基本优先目标。本文通过构建基于要素投入、货币供应与中国经济波动的AKM模型，采用1953-2004年样本序列数据，运用向量自回归模型（VAR）、脉冲响应函数（IRF）以及Granger Causality Test，实证检验了资本投入、技术进步、货币供应波动与经济波动之间的相互关系。实证结果表明：资本投入波动是经济增长波动的主因，货币供应量波动次之，技术进步引致的经济波动则更为平缓和持久。在较短的时期内，资本存量和货币供应波动更容易引致宏观经济波动，且波幅较大，而技术冲击则从更长的时期内对宏观经济波动产生影响。此外，我国技术进步并不内生于经济增长以及货币供应非中性的推论也值得重视。最后，文章就如何实现我国经济平稳增长提出了简要的政策建议。 Abstract: One of the most important objectives of Chinese economic develoment is to keep GDP growing fastly and stably. Realizing this objective, We must survey the problem of economic fluctuation from a strategic view and treat it as the basic and prior goal of economic and social development. Through formating AKM model and appling VAR IRF and Granger Causality Test with 1953-2004 data, this paper finds:the main reason of economic fuctuation is capital input and money supply follows. In a short term, the fluctuation caused by capital input and money supply is more easier and stronger, while technology impulse always causes macroeconomic fluctuation softly and durable in a long term. Otherwise we should also pay attention to the non-neutrality character of money supply and the non-endogenesis of technology progress . Finally this paper raises some brief countermesures.