Analyzing data from 3,616 Chinese listed firms, we find a strong positive relationship between policy uncertainty and firms’ exchange rate exposure. This result remains robust after controlling for macroeconomic conditions and addressing endogeneity issues. Notably, policy uncertainty’s impact is significantly stronger for firms with a higher degree of international involvement and for poorly-governed firms. Interestingly, firms use financial hedging more intensively and reduce their operational hedging in high-uncertainty periods. Our results suggest that policy uncertainty exacerbates the impact of currency movements on firms’ financial performance, as firms become increasingly involved in international operations. Consequently, firms should strengthen their corporate governance and make effective use of hedging tools.

Owing to the liberalisation of financial markets, the impact of international capital flows on the Chinese stock market has become substantial. This study investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), consumer sentiment (CCI), macroeconomic fundamentals (MECI), and money supply (M2) on the correlations between the stock and exchange rate markets. The negative correlation between these two markets has become more pronounced in recent years. Moreover, EPU, GPR, CCI, and MECI negatively impact long-term stock-exchange rate correlations, while M2 has a positive impact. Portfolios of stock-exchange rates effectively reduce risk, especially when considering structural breaks.

In this paper, we show that only the systematic component of exchange rate expectations of professional investors is a strong predictor of the cross-section of currency returns. The predictability is strong in short and long horizons. The strategy offers significant Sharpe ratios for holding periods of 1 to 12 months, and it is unrelated to existing currency investment strategies, including risk-based currency momentum. The results hold for forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months, and they are robust after accounting for transaction costs. The idiosyncratic component of currency expectations does not contain important information for the cross-section of currency returns. Our strategy is more significant for currencies with low sentiment and it is not driven by volatility and illiquidity. The results are robust when we extract the systematic component of the forecasts using a larger number of predictors.

This study explores how foreign competition impacts the capital structure of domestic firms. While import competition is associated with a decrease in domestic firms’ leverage, we propose a novel perspective concerning the positive effect of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on leverage. FDI competition can boost demand for debt via productivity spillover to domestic firms, and also increase supply of debt by inducing lenders to herd toward foreign investors. Using Chinese firm-level data, we find that the positive effects of industry inward FDI on domestic firms’ leverage are more pronounced in high-tech industries and industries where foreign investors exhibit a high degree of herding behavior. Our instrument variable approach, employing industry exchange rates and import tariffs, supports these findings. Additionally, we reveal that the positive effect of FDI on local firms’ leverage is amplified when the firms have stronger absorptive capacities, receive foreign capital, and experience more human capital transfers from foreign rivals.

This paper examines whether China’s switch back and forth from fixed to floating exchange rates in 2005 and 2008 changed the contribution to stock price discovery by foreign and domestic investors. During that time, mainland investors could only trade the RMB-denominated A-shares in the domestic Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, while the dual-listed HKD-denominated H-shares were available only to overseas investors. Using intraday data on overlapping trading hours, we find that the switch from a fixed rate to managed floating in July 2005 increased the H-shares’ contribution to price discovery; while the exchange rate regime reversal in July 2008 allowed the domestic stocks to regain their dominance in information shares. These results imply that, in a market subject to restrictions on capital flows, a flexible exchange rate regime increases the propensity of investors to trade foreign-issued stocks to speculate on the RMB exchange rate, which raises overseas investors’ contribution to price discovery.

The RMB exchange rate policy follows a “two-pillar” rule, with the market pillar reflecting foreign exchange market conditions and the basket pillar stabilizing the RMB index. This paper documents a clear pattern of regime-switching in the policy coefficients on the market pillar. And the regime-switching patterns are driven by macroeconomic variables, the intraday market condition as well as the news on trade conflicts. In a Markov-switching rational expectations model, we demonstrate that regime-switching rules expand the policy parameter’s space over which a unique equilibrium exists and the self-fulfilling depreciation is ruled out. Thus, this paper rationalizes the use of counter-cyclical factor— a policy tool proposed to stabilize the RMB exchange market.

As a bridge between Chinese mainland and international financial markets, the Stock Connect program allows investors on both sides to gain mutual access. By analyzing how cross-border flows respond to macro-related shocks, we show that compared with possibly homemade foreign investors, genuine foreign investors are more likely affected by the U.S. monetary shocks, the exchange rate risk, the U.S. market performance as well as the cross-market valuation disparity. The paper highlights the importance of profiling different groups of cross-border participants over market integration.

Since September 1, 2014, the renminbi (RMB) offshore market in Taiwan has been started on according a cross-strait MOU. A completed RMB market in the Chinese Economic Area therefore has been established. Due to political and economic disruptions, such as the aftermath of the global tsunami, mainland China’s stock market crash and RMB exchange rate reform in 2015, as well as failure of the Service Trade Agreement between Taiwan and mainland China in 2016, the arbitrage opportunities among the three RMB markets can be explored. This paper evaluates the convergence and divergence of RMB market returns by the sigma-convergence (or log t) test, which provides a more precise indication for market return convergence than does the traditional unit root test. Policy implications for the RMB arbitrage are also provided.

This paper analyzes international portfolio selection with exchange rate risk based on behavioural portfolio theory (BPT). We characterize the conditions under which the BPT problem with a single foreign market has an optimal solution, and show that the optimal portfolio contains the traditional mean–variance efficient portfolio without consideration of exchange rate risk, and an uncorrelated component constructed to hedge against exchange rate risk. We illustrate that the optimal portfolio must be mean–variance efficient with exchange rate risk, while the same is not true from the perspective of local investors unless certain conditions are satisfied. We further establish that international portfolio selection in the BPT with multiple foreign markets consists of two sequential decisions. Investors first select the optimal BPT portfolio in each market, overlooking covariances among markets, and then allocate funds across markets according to a specific rule to achieve mean–variance efficiency or to minimize the loss in efficiency.

We examine the impact of renminbi revaluation on foreign firm valuations, considering two surprise announcements of changes in China’s exchange rate policy in 2005 and 2010 and employing data on some 6,000 firms in 44 economies. Stock returns rise with renminbi revaluation expectations. This reaction appears to reflect a combination of improvements in general market sentiment and specific trade effects. Expected renminbi appreciation has a positive effect on firms exporting to China but a negative impact on those providing inputs for the country’s processing exports. Stock prices rise for firms competing with China in their home market but fall for firms importing Chinese products with large imported-input content. There is also some evidence that expected renminbi appreciation reduces the valuation of financially-constrained firms, presumably because appreciation implies reduced Chinese purchases of foreign securities. The results carry over when we consider ten instances of market-perceived changes in prospective Chinese currency policy.