This paper empirically evaluates the impact of a Government-Initiated Non-Profit Ecommerce Platform (GNEP) on specialty agricultural sales, focusing specifically on Pu’er tea in China. Using a difference-in-differences methodology and a comprehensive panel dataset that covers over 90% of local tea farmers, we uncover a marked substitution effect. The implementation of GNEP leads to an average decline of 11.22% in offline household sales, while online sales see an uptick of 16.88%. Further analysis confirms a universal channel shift from offline to online sales, irrespective of both production levels and tea quality. Contrary to expectations, the overall tea sales volume remains largely stable post-launch. Additionally, premium-quality teas experience a 2.42% price boost online, while regular teas show a 0.40% decrease compared to offline prices. Mechanism analyses further indicate that the increase in online sales is driven primarily by the intensive margin instead of the extensive margin. Although the platform does not significantly expand the number of farmers engaging in online sales, it succeeds in offering a cost-effective avenue for diversifying product offerings and achieving higher prices for premium-quality products. Our study illuminates the transformative role of e-commerce platforms in rural economic development and provides essential insights for policymakers and practitioners.

The past decade has witnessed a phenomenal rise of digital wallets, and the COVID-19 pandemic further accelerated their adoption globally. Such e-wallets provide not only a conduit to external bank accounts but also internal payment options, including the ever-popular Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL). We examine, for the first time, e-wallet transactions matched with merchant and consumer information from a world-leading provider based in China, with around one billion users globally and a business model that other e-wallet providers quickly converge to. We document that internal payment options, especially BNPL, dominate both online and on-site transactions. BNPL has greatly expanded credit access at the extensive margin through its adoption in two-sided payment markets. While BNPL crowds out other e-wallet payment options, it expands FinTech credit to underserved consumers. Exploiting a randomized experiment, we also find that e-wallet credit through BNPL substantially boosts consumer spending. Nevertheless, users, especially those relying on e-wallets as their sole credit source, carefully moderate borrowing when incurring interest charges. The insights likely prove informative for economies transitioning from cash-heavy to cashless societies where digital payments and FinTech credit see the largest growth and market potential.

This paper examines the impact of the carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) on directed technological change in the context of Chinese pilot schemes. We focus on firms’ heterogeneity in driving innovation and explore policy variations across pilots. Using a matched difference-in-differences design with a zero-inflated Poisson model, we find that the low-carbon innovation is driven by firms at the intensive margin. On average, a firm files 0.16 additional low-carbon patents annually at the intensive margin. In addition, when looking across pilots, the effect on low-carbon innovation is significant in two pilots, Beijing and Shanghai. We further find that, when looking at firms with different productivity levels measured by output per worker, the pilot ETS encourages low-carbon innovation at the intensive margin but reduces entry into low-carbon innovation at the extensive margin for the more productive firms. Our results suggest that innovation inertia matters, and future policies should encourage smaller firms covered by ETS to start innovation in low-carbon technologies.

We study the consequences of market uncertainty on international trade. An increase in foreign market uncertainty dampens China's aggregate exports on both the extensive and intensive margins. The adverse effects are more pronounced in industries facing tighter financial constraints than in others. We propose a dynamic trade model to explain the facts. Greater uncertainty depresses a firm's expected value of exporting and borrowing capacity, leading to fewer exporters and a smaller average size of exports. Under calibrated parameters, the uncertainty shock accounts for a sizable fraction of China's trade collapse in the 2008 financial crisis and the recent trade war.