Forecast Disagreement

  • 详情 High Frequency Evolution of Macro Expectation and Disagreement
    This paper investigates the high-frequency dynamics of macroeconomic expectations and disagreement among professional forecasters. We propose a novel mixed-frequency estimation approach that integrates daily asset returns with quarterly expectation data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Our findings indicate that consensus forecasts are updated efficiently according to Bayes' rule, independent of prior forecasts. By employing "representative forecasters" as proxies for real-world agents, we derive a simple yet intuitive evolution equation for disagreement, revealing that changes in disagreement are primarily driven by different interpretations of new information. Furthermore, we reconstruct daily series of expectations and disagreement concerning macroeconomic growth, achieving impressive R2 values of 93.3% and 84.5% against the true quarterly series.