本文通过构建包含异质性的家庭消费跨期替代弹性的 DSGE 模型，解释了负向 TFP冲击如何引起实际 GDP 增速下行与房价、债务上涨并存的现象，且负向 TFP 冲击的持续性决定了房价、债务是否出现“逆周期”及其规模。本文基于以下逻辑：负向 TFP 冲击导致收入下滑，消费跨期替代弹性异质性使得部分家庭有倾向于减少住房支出去平滑消费，相对地另一部分家庭倾向于增加住房投资，一方面，随着消费恢复住房需求快速回升，实际住房价格由低到高，同时利率下行，财富从储蓄者向借贷炒房者转移，形成住房财富两极分化，这种分化同时强化了储蓄家庭的居住需求和借贷炒房家庭的投资需求；另一方面，金融中介通过吸收部分家庭的储蓄并向另一类家庭放贷，通过利差不断积累净值，更高的净值对应更多的住房贷款，二者共同推动房价的持续上升。冲击的早期，两类家庭提供更多劳动获得可支配收入，劳动意愿上升部分抵消了产出下滑，随着住房价格上升及信贷繁荣，家庭减少劳动时间，实际产出随之下降，形成房价与债务的“逆周期”现象。央行通过盯住利差，或在货币政策规则中引入金融中介杠杆因子等途径干预信贷能够消除房价与家庭债务的“逆周期”现象。最后，从信贷错配的角度出发，房价上涨是预算软约束下财政刺激、不确定性上升引起的“副作用”。

Although big data technologies such as digital contact tracing and health certification apps have been widely used to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, little empirical evidence regarding their effectiveness is available. This paper studies the economic and public health effects of the "Health Code" app in China. By exploiting the staggered implementation of this technology across 322 Chinese cities, I find that this big data technology significantly reduced virus transmission and facilitated economic recovery during the pandemic. A macroeconomic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model calibrated to the micro-level estimates shows that the technology reduced the economic loss by 0.5% of GDP and saved more than 200,000 lives by alleviating informational frictions during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Using proprietary individual level loan data, this paper explores the economic consequences of the 2009 bank entry deregulation in China. Such deregulation leads to higher screening standards, lower interest rates, and lower delinquency rates for corporate loans from entrant banks. Consequently, in deregulated cities, private firms with bank credit access increase asset investments, employment, net income, and ROA. In contrast, the performance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) does not improve following deregulation. Deregulation also amplifies bank credit from productive private firms to inefficient SOEs due mainly to SOEs’ soft budget constraints. This adverse effect accounts for 0.31% annual GDP losses.

This paper investigates the link between firm headquarters location and firm stock return co-movements in a sample of Chinese firms spanning the years 1999 to 2007. The empirical results show a strong co-movement pattern of firms located in the same province. Moreover, both firm-level and provincial-level factors are found to influence this co-movement, including firm size and ownership structure at firm level and GDP per capita and financial depth at provincial level. A subsample of firms listed in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange shows that better firm-level information quality reduces local co-movements.

through the analysis of the input and output of goods, industrial chain is considered in this paper: for any commodity in the industry chain and GDP, and the final product price are equal, so the impact on the consumption of GDP is directly; influence of investment to GDP is more complicated, because the investment specific effects on the GDP not only depends on the input factor, output rate, organic composition of capital, need to realize through the consumption way to; the use of modern computing technology, analysis of different commodities industry chain, can accurately measure related to consumption, investment on GDP specific effects, related to the entity economy monetary demand.

利率工具作为央行货币政策的重要组成部分，也是实施货币政策的主要手段之一。中央银行根据货币政策实施的需要，适时地运用利率工具，对利率水平和结构进行调整，以此影响社会资金供求状况，调节微观经济主体的具体经济行为，进而实现既定的货币政策目标。 自2008年经济危机以来，中国人民银行多次利用存款准备金率和利率工具对国家宏观经济进行调节，特别是2010年以来为了应对由之前过度宽松货币政策导致的严重通胀形势，央行5次提高存贷款基准利率，12次提高存款准备金率至21.5%的历史高位。尽管如此，但是国内利率水平依然处在低位，实际利率持续为负。存准率过度提高导致货币供给大幅减少，利率水平维持低位使货币需求上升，这样扭曲的货币政策导致了我国宏观经济在各方面的失衡，并且遭到了来自各界的非议。究竟利率工具的宏观经济调控效果如何呢，为何央行不愿意使用价格型货币政策工具——利率进行调控呢？虽然目前存准率工具的使用次数要远多于利率工具，但是随着今后利率市场化改革的深入推进和我国金融体制的开放改革，今后利率调控工具将会成为央行调节宏观经济运行节奏的主要手段。因此，研究利率政策调控对宏观经济的影响将有助于我们明确利率调控的效果、认清宏观经济变化的原因，在利率市场化的背景下也能够为央行制定科学的货币政策提供决策依据。 本文是按照“回顾改革以来利率政策的调整历史→实际利率变动对主要宏观经济目标的实证检验→影响利率政策效果的原因分析→增强利率调控效果的政策建议”的基本思路，展开全文的分析讨论。在对改革开放三十年以来的利率政策历史回顾分析的基础上，采用定性和定量分析相结合的方法，对利率变动与经济增长率、通货膨胀率以及城镇登记失业率进行实证检验，得出不同阶段实际利率的变化对不同宏观经济目标的影响。在此基础上得出全文结论，实际利率与经济增长率的关系从正相关逐渐发展为负相关，与通胀率则是显著的负相关，而实际利率与城镇登记失业率则呈现很弱的相关性。然后具体分析影响我国利率政策调控宏观经济效果的原因，主要包括利率管制政策、金融市场发展建设及经济主体行为三个方面。最后在前文讨论的基础上提出增强利率调控效果的政策建议，主要包括放松利率管制、继续推进利率市场化改革、完善货币市场发展建设、加强央行宏观调控能力等方面。 Interest rate policy is an important component of monetary policy，also the one main instruments of monetary policy implementation．According to the People’s Bank of China monetary policy needs in a timely manner，use of interest rate tools，include the level of interest rates and interest rate structure in order to affect the supply and demand of funds，micro-economic regulation of the main acts，and to achieve monetary policy objectives． After 2008 world economic crisis, the interest rate and deposit-reserve ratio has been changed more times to adjust China’s macroeconomic. Especially since 2010 to cope with the serious inflation caused by the prior overly lax monetary policy, the central bank raised the benchmark deposit and lending interest rates 5 times and 12 times to raise the deposit reserve ratio to 21.5% highs. In spite of this, but the domestic interest rate level is still low, the real interest rate is negative for longtime. Money supply is greatly reduced by the excessive increase of deposit reserve ratio, and monetary demand rises because the level of interest rates remains low. Such distortion of the monetary policy in our country makes our macro economy imbalance in all aspects, and has received criticism from all walks of life. How about the interest rate tool of macroeconomic regulation and control effect, why the central bank is not willing to use price monetary policy tools -- interest rate regulation? Although the deposit-reserve ratio has been changed more than the interest rate, but with the market-oriented reform of interest rate and financial system, interest rate regulation will be the main method of macroeconomic adjusting control. So studying on macroeconomic effects of real interest rate would help us to be more clearly knowing the results of the interest rate policy and understanding the reasons for changes in the economy. Furthermore，in our country, the interest rate is not fully market-oriented, the study is also helpful for authorities to make the correct monetary and interest rate policy. “Review the history of interest rate policy adjustment from Reform and Opening up→the empirical test of real interest rate on the main macroeconomic goals→the reasons analysis which have influence on the effects of interest rate policy→the policy recommendations which make interest rate regulation more effective" This is the main train of thought of this paper, around which expand the analysis and discussion. Based on the review of the history of interest rate policy after Reform and Opening-up from 1980, used the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, through analyzed the effects of real interest rates which impacted on the three macroeconomic objectives, include the GDP growth rate、the inflation rate and the urban registered unemployment rate, we get the result that in different stages, the interest rate policy have different impacts on economic objectives. At the last, we get the whole conclusion and analyzed the reasons which caused interest rate policy to be ineffective on the macro economy. Finally, according to China’s financial market, this paper gave some reform suggestions which can make interest rate policy to be more effective on macro economic adjusting control.

The forecast ability of term structure is tested in this paper with the data of interbank treasury yield curve of Chinabond. The results show that there are positive relationships between term structure and the changes of future macro economy, i.e. GDP, consumption, production and inflation, which is similar with the studies of the developed countries. The term structure can predict the mid-term economic growth well, even considering the effects of monetary policy and another leading indicator. With the regression results, the out-of-sample predictions show a lower and decreasing growth rate in the next two years, implying greater challenges to the policy-makers.

美国推行超常规赤字财政政策和宽松货币政策应对全球金融危机，世界各 国尤其是持有大量美元债权的国家对美元国际储备资产安全性极其关注， 探索国际储备货币 稳定性具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。 本文着重研究国际货币体系演变和美元国际储备资 产稳定性，并探讨规避“特里芬”难题的条件。理论研究表明，在布雷顿森林体系下，当美 国经济增长率与美国黄金储备占 GDP之比增长率之和大于或者等于美元收益率时， 美元国际 储备具有内在稳定性， “特里芬”难题可以规避；相反的，当美国经济增长率与美国黄金储 备占 GDP 之比增长率之和小于美元收益率时，美元国际储备不具有稳定性， “特里芬”难题 必然激化。在现代国际货币体系下，当实际经济增长率大于或者等于通货膨胀率与美元收益 率之和时， 美元国际储备与实际 GDP之比的动态路径将收敛， 美元国际储备具有内在稳定性； 相反的，当实际经济增长率小于通货膨胀率与美元收益率之和时，美元国际储备稳定性将难 以保证。实证研究表明，美国黄金储备增长率一直低于美元收益率，同时，世界黄金储备增 长率尽管高于同期的美国黄金储备增长率，但仍然一直低于美元收益率水平，表明以美元主 导的布雷顿森林体系难以逃脱崩溃的厄运。布雷顿森林体系崩溃以后，美国实际经济增长率 都小于通货膨胀率与美元收益率之和， 表明在现代国际货币体系下美元国际储备稳定性偏离 可持续水平。未来美国婴儿潮引发的“银发海啸”及医疗保险、医疗救助将促使财政债务压 力更大，美元收益率由于国债规模膨胀而持续上升，如果没有出现新的技术革命，那么未来 美国实际经济增长率小于通货膨胀率与美元收益率之和的趋势将难以改变， 美元主导现代国 际货币体系的稳定性难以维持。

2004年“831大限”以来中国房地产市场进入一个全新的增长期，房地产逐渐成为国民 经济支柱产业。房价快速上涨的同时是投资的迅速加快，2009年房地产投资对于全国 GDP增长的贡 献超过20%，而在部分一线城市这一份量甚至达到40%。本文在Abraham（1995）关于影响房地产价 格增长率的宏观经济变量的基本面计量模型的基础上，结合中国国情建立房地产价格投机度模型。 模型将房地产增长率分为由基本面因素驱动的价值与由投机度驱动的泡沫值两部分，动态地刻画 了基本面的增长、投资（投机）的推动以及泡沫的修正等宏观因素共同作用下的完整的房 地产周期，有效地梳理了房地产增长中的理性与泡沫成分。结合中国国情，我们定量分析了 M2 增长对于中国房地产市场价格周期中的泡沫成分的高度敏感性，并结合动态模拟，显示在未来 M2 增速可能的稳步回落对房地产价格冲击。基于此，我们提出稳定当前房地产价格增长率势在 必行，否则未来房地产市场的平稳性的保障难度将更大。同时，我们的研究为监管部门应对 系统性风险的宏观审慎监管提供了基于房地产市场的有效依据。

Spatial imbalance of technology, which refers to unevenness or disproportionality in a spatial distribution of technology, is of key importance in the harmonious and balanced development of the world economy. This study is an attempt to develop a comparable map-independent analysis that measures spatial distribution, deviation angle, shift distance, direction and velocity of the gravity center (location-related spatial imbalance analysis) from an international range. Analyzing respectively on the gravity centers of different attribute values of 44 countries or regions and studying on the effects of the gravity centers of GDP, FDI and population on the technology center of gravity, it comes to the following conclusions: (1) the imbalance of spatial distribution is existing and will lasts for a long time; (2) the spatial distributions of GDP, FDI, and population don’t coincide with that of technology in longitude and latitude only except that the latitude distribution of FDI coincide with latitude and longitude distribution of technology; (3) the distributions of gravity centers of technology and population approximately record a south-east extending; (4) the distributions of gravity centers of GDP and FDI take on a loop-line movement with a clockwise rotation; (5) the gravity centers of GDP, FDI, population are positively associated with the gravity center of technology in latitude rather than in longitude. (6)Besides, the average velocity of different gravity centers is approximately 300km per year except that the gravity center of GDP shifts at an average speed of a little more than 9km per year. Combining analyses of the spatial distribution, deviation angle, shift distance, direction and velocity with the calculation of the coordinates’ correlation coefficients of the gravity centers, the hypotheses are partially supported. This study provides insight into the possible relationships between spatial distribution of technology, harmonious economic development and population spatial shift, and generates some interesting avenues for future research.