Economic policy uncertainty is a key determinant of exchange rate stability. This study investigates the impact of China's categorical economic policy uncertainties on the long-term correlation between onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) Renminbi (RMB) exchange rates. We find that fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU), monetary policy uncertainty (MPU), and exchange rate and capital account uncertainty (EXRPU) have a significant negative effect on this correlation, while trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has no significant impact. Furthermore, CNY and CNH do not effectively diversify risks and provide only limited hedging benefits.

This paper investigates how the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) affects long-term stock–bond correlations in China, employing mixed-frequency data from April 2005 to June 2025 in a DCC-MIDAS-X framework. Results show that higher GSCPI significantly reduces long-term stock–bond correlations, thereby enhancing the hedging property of bonds. This effect is both state-dependent and asymmetric, remaining significant in low-volatility regimes and following negative shocks, while becoming largely muted during high-volatility periods or after positive shocks. However, the impact of GSCPI weakens substantially after China’s 2014 financial liberalization, as global financial factors increasingly drive cross-asset dynamics. Moreover, GSCPI provides incremental information that enhances portfolio diversification and hedging performance.

We use nearly a decade’s worth of panel data from European Union Chamber of Commerce in China business confidence surveys to analyse the deteriorating outlooks of EU firms in China from 2017 to 2025. All firms in China currently face challenges including slow profit growth and deflation. These circumstances have contributed to a rare drop of foreign direct investment into China over the last two years. However, certain challenges are particularly acute for foreign firms, including those from the EU. According to survey results, business sentiment among EU firms operating in China has never been bleaker. Respondents view their profitability, growth opportunities and competitiveness negatively, while fewer respondents than ever plan to expand their Chinese operations. Moreover, significant shares of respondents report recent increases in political pressure from the Chinese state and media, while nearly a third of respondents say they are siloing their Chinese operations, meaning separating them from other global activities. Disaggregated by size, sector, and years of operation in China, insightful differences emerge between the business strategies of EU firms. We broadly classify these into four categories: doubling-down, hedging, hibernating and ready to exit. EU policymakers should consider how to address the challenges EU firms in China face, such as asset-heavy sectors being ‘stuck’ in China and smaller firms lacking the capacity to operate at a loss in China’s market. The EU might need to facilitate transitions for these companies, helping them to reduce exposure to China and diversify into other emerging markets.

Analyzing data from 3,616 Chinese listed firms, we find a strong positive relationship between policy uncertainty and firms’ exchange rate exposure. This result remains robust after controlling for macroeconomic conditions and addressing endogeneity issues. Notably, policy uncertainty’s impact is significantly stronger for firms with a higher degree of international involvement and for poorly-governed firms. Interestingly, firms use financial hedging more intensively and reduce their operational hedging in high-uncertainty periods. Our results suggest that policy uncertainty exacerbates the impact of currency movements on firms’ financial performance, as firms become increasingly involved in international operations. Consequently, firms should strengthen their corporate governance and make effective use of hedging tools.

This study investigates the relationship between trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and market diversification with risk-averse firms. We build a model to demonstrate how a risk-averse firm diversifies risks stemming from escalating TPU through entering new markets whose trade policies are negatively correlated with ones in its alreadyentered markets. The positive effect of TPU on market diversification is moderated if the firm has lower risk hedging ability and/or is less risk-averse. Conditional on the TPU in the already-entered markets, there is an inverted-U relationship between TPU in the new market and the probability of entering it. Using a unique firm-productlevel dataset on Chinese exporters, we find robust evidence supporting our theoretical predictions.

Based on high-frequency data of China's commodity market from 2017 to 2022, this article examines the intraday momentum effect. The results indicate that China's commodity futures and options have significant intraday reversal effects, and the overnight opening factor and opening to last half hour factor are more significant. These effects are driven, in part, by liquidity factors. This trend aligns with market makers' behavior, passively accepting orders during low liquidity and actively closing positions amid high liquidity. Furthermore, our examination of cross-predictive ability shows strong futures-to-options predictability, while the reverse is weaker. We posit options traders' Vega hedging as a key factor in this phenomenon, our study finds futures volatility changes can predict options’ return.

Owing to the liberalisation of financial markets, the impact of international capital flows on the Chinese stock market has become substantial. This study investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), consumer sentiment (CCI), macroeconomic fundamentals (MECI), and money supply (M2) on the correlations between the stock and exchange rate markets. The negative correlation between these two markets has become more pronounced in recent years. Moreover, EPU, GPR, CCI, and MECI negatively impact long-term stock-exchange rate correlations, while M2 has a positive impact. Portfolios of stock-exchange rates effectively reduce risk, especially when considering structural breaks.

We present a novel methodology for constructing portfolios to hedge economic and financial risks arising from climate change. We utilize ChatGPT-4 to identify climate-related conversations during earnings conference calls and connect these time-stamped transcripts with high-frequency stock price data pinpointed to the conversation level. This approach allows us to assess a company’s dynamic exposure to climate change risks by analyzing real-time stock price responses to discussions about climate issues between managers and analysts. Our proposed portfolio, constructed by taking long (short) positions in stocks with positive (negative) market responses to climate conversations, appreciates in value during future periods with negative aggregate climate news shocks. Compared to portfolios constructed using alternative methods, our real-time market response-based portfolios demonstrate superior out-of-sample hedge performance. A key advantage of our approach is its ability to capture time-series and cross-sectional variations in stocks’ rapidly-evolving exposures to climate risk, relying on the timing of when climate-related issues become salient topics that warrant conference call discussions and real-time market responses to such conversations. Additionally, we showcase the versatility of our approach in hedging other types of dynamic risks: namely political risk and pandemic risk.

This study investigates the relationship between trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and market diversification with risk-averse firms. We build a model to demonstrate how a risk-averse firm diversifies risks stemming from escalating TPU through entering new markets whose trade policies are negatively correlated with ones in its already-entered markets. The positive effect of TPU on market diversification is moderated if the firm has lower risk hedging ability and/or is less risk-averse. Conditional on the TPU in the already-entered markets, there is an inverted-U relationship between TPU in the new market and the probability of entering it. Using a unique firm-product-level dataset on Chinese exporters, we find robust evidence supporting our theoretical predictions.

An optimal tax and borrowing plan determines the marginal cost of servicing government debt, p', and makes the government’s debt risk-free. An option to default restricts debt capacity. Optimal debt-GDP ratio dynamics are driven by 1) a primary deficit, 2) interest payments, 3) GDP growth, and 4) hedging costs. Hedging influences debt capacity and debt transition dynamics. For plausible parameter values, we make comparative dynamic quantitative statements about debt-GDP ratio transition dynamics, debt capacity, and how long it would take our example economy to attain that calibrated equilibrium debt capacity.