Developing an early warning model for company financial crises holds critical significance in robust risk management and ensuring the enduring stability of the capital market. Although the existing research has achieved rich results, the disadvantages of insufficient text information mining and poor model performance still exist. To alleviate the problem of insufficient text information mining, we collect related financial and annual report data from 820 listed companies in mainland China from 2018 to 2023 by using sophisticated web crawlers and advanced text sentiment analysis technologies and using missing value interpolation, standardization, and data balancing to build multi-source datasets of companies. Ranking the feature importance of multi-source data promotes understanding the formation of financial crises for companies. In the meantime, a novel Attention-based Fuzzy Neural Network (AFNN) was proposed to parse multi-source data to forecast financial crises among listed companies. Experimental results indicate that AFNN exhibits significantly improved performance compared to other advanced methods.

Based on 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in mainland China, this paper explores the temporal and spillover effects of the provincial COVID19 pandemic on stock returns. The results show that stock returns are significantly and negatively correlated both with the pandemic in the firm’s headquartered province (referred to as, local province), and the pandemics in other provinces (referred to as, non-local provinces). By multiple time dimensions analysis, we find that at the weekly (monthly) level, the impact of the pandemic in local province on stock returns is larger (weaker) than the pandemics in non-local provinces, showing the temporal (spillover) effects. Mechanism analysis shows that COVID-19 can quickly reduce investors’ attention to stock market. The heterogeneity analysis shows that firms owned by state, with bad CSR, or a higher proportion of shares held by the largest shareholder are more affected by COVID-19. After replacing samples and time intervals, the results remain robust.

This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy to the stock market through investors’ discount factors. To isolate this channel, we investigate the effect of US monetary policy surprises on the ratio of prices of the same stock listed simultaneously in Hong Kong and Mainland China, and thereby control for revisions in cash-flow expectations. We find this channel to be strong and asymmetric, with the effect driven by surprise monetary policy interest rate cuts. A 100 basis point surprise cut results in a 30 basis point increase in the ratio of stock prices over 5 days. These results suggest significant slow-moving reductions in stock market risk premia following accommodating monetary policy surprises.

This paper investigates the impact of two global crises, the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis, on herding behavior in the Chinese and U.S. stock markets. We find no evidence of herding behavior during these two global crises in the U.S. stock market, yet significant herding emerges under the COVID-19 crisis in Chinese mainland stock market. Additionally, the observed herding behavior in mainland China is primarily driven by sentiment. Our results reveal and explain the differences in the effects of financial crisis and public health crisis on herding behavior, as well as variations between emerging and developed stock markets.

Mainland China traditionally maintained the one-share-one-vote (OSOV) principle. Since 2019, however, Chinese authorities have introduced rules supporting the dual-class equity structure (DCES) for “innovative enterprises.” Due to concerns about investor-protection issues, China’s DCES currently operates as a “stringent permit system,” and as of the end of June 2023, only eight corporations have achieved listings with DCES adopted. This article provides a broad and profound policy analysis of the Chinese DCES system, including empirical analyses on the eight existing DCES cases. Also, this article explores the legal and economic aspects of investor-protection issues with respect to the China’s DCES. Regarding DCES rules in the context of investor protection, this article examines “three sets of investor safeguard measures”: (1) “three numerically speciffed rules” (this article calls the three rules the “10% equity rule,” the “10-time voting-right rule,” and the “2/3 voting-right rule”); (2) “sunset provisions” (such as event-driven sunset and time-based sunset); and (3) “rules converting special-voting shares (shares with higher voting rights) into shares with one vote” (such as conversion in mergers and a conversion in an amendment of the charter). Due to the concerns about the prevailing practice of tunneling in China, this article argues in favor of the “DCES with enhanced investor protection.” To foment founders’ entrepreneurship and allow more corporations with the DCES, however, this article recommends that the Chinese authorities gradually relax the implementation of the current DCES system of de facto stringent permit system. The future relaxation of the stringent permit system will also be beneffcial for China because, as a result of the escalated tension with the U.S., China has already lost a substantial portion of its reliable DCES-IPO markets in the U.S. Also, DCES-IPO markets in Hong Kong is still inactive. Thus, the establishment of viable DCES-IPO markets will soon be necessary in Mainland China.

China’s housing purchase restriction (HPR) policy imposes administrative restrictions on households’ home purchase eligibility to curb speculative demand. We quantify households’ willingness to pay (WTP) to re-acquire such eligibility. The empirical results based on the staggered DID specification suggest that when local governments implement the HPR policy, the transaction prices of judicial housing auctions legally exempted from HPR increase by 18.91%. This HPR-exempted qualification premium can be converted to an estimate of 22.48% of the transaction price as buyers’ WTP for home purchase eligibility. The heterogeneity analysis also suggests that the WTP significantly increases when speculative incentives are stronger in the housing market. If policymakers in mainland China consider replacing the HPR policy with an additional buyer transaction tax like that in Singapore and Hong Kong, China, the WTP estimates can serve as the benchmark in setting the tax rate.

This paper uses high frequency option data to investigate the information content of option trading of AH cross listed stocks (A-shares traded in mainland China and H-shares traded in Hong Kong) and the role of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect in this issue. Measuring the informed trading with order imbalance, we find that the order imbalance of stock options traded in Hong Kong contains incremental information that predicts the return of corresponding A-shares traded in Shanghai after controlling for the cross-market return and volume factors proposed by Gagnon and Karolyi (2009). More important, this predictive power strengthens after the Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect, which is also supported by the evidence of comparison between the two stock crashes exactly before and after the connection. During the 2015 stock crash, the spillover effect of the two markets is significantly stronger than that during the 2008 financial crisis.

Since September 1, 2014, the renminbi (RMB) offshore market in Taiwan has been started on according a cross-strait MOU. A completed RMB market in the Chinese Economic Area therefore has been established. Due to political and economic disruptions, such as the aftermath of the global tsunami, mainland China’s stock market crash and RMB exchange rate reform in 2015, as well as failure of the Service Trade Agreement between Taiwan and mainland China in 2016, the arbitrage opportunities among the three RMB markets can be explored. This paper evaluates the convergence and divergence of RMB market returns by the sigma-convergence (or log t) test, which provides a more precise indication for market return convergence than does the traditional unit root test. Policy implications for the RMB arbitrage are also provided.

China's stock market (the "A share market'') has a lower correlation with the global market and is less affected by international financial contagions than any other major economy. The inclusion of mainland China stocks into an international portfolio increases its Sharpe ratio. However, we find that Chinese stocks providing the most diversification benefits also carry the most policy risk for international investors. Holding Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong does not reap the same diversification benefits. While global market integration and the increase in foreign ownership can diminish diversification benefits, mainland China stocks still provide valuable diversification opportunities for international investors up till the most recent time in late 2010s.

China?s recent removal of short selling and margin trading bans on selected stocks enables testing of the relative effect of margin trading and short selling. We find the prices of the shortable stocks decrease, on average, relative to peer A-shares and cross-listed H-shares, suggesting that short selling dominates margin trading effects. However, there is negligible short sales activity and contrary to the regulators? intention, and recent empirical evidence, liquidity declines and bid-ask spreads increase in these shortable stocks. Consistent with Ausubel (1990), together these results imply uninformed-investors avoid these stocks to reduce the risk of trading with informed-investors.