Monte Carlo simulation

  • 详情 The pricing of Synthetic CDO based on the Hybrid model
    ABSTRACT:As an important derivative instrument, CDO is playing a crucial role in the financial crisis. With complicated structure, we have developed many pricing models, which all relay on complicated mathematical model. The paper, firstly, introduces the mainstream pricing model----structural model and reduced form model. Then we introduced the Hybrid Models based on two formal models, by discussing the parameter of pricing i.e. default probability, default free risk and default correlation. In this paper, we give the hybrid model by Monte Carlo simulation based on copula function. Finally, we consider the pricing sensitivity on various parameters. According to the result of simulation, the relationship between the tranches price and pricing parameters is various. For the equity tranche and mezzanine tranche, the price and recovery rate have a positive correlation, while the case is inverse for the senior tranche. We also can conclude that, higher default correlation can lower the price of equity tranche, and have an opposite effect on the senior tranche. The influence on the mezzanine tranche isn’t certain. Furthermore, by comparing two different copula function model, we can get that marginal distribution has different effect on the tranches price.
  • 详情 Stock Market Feedback Trading, Fat-tail Distribution
    Feedback is the trading strategy of irrational investors. Positive feedback traders' buying or selling behavior is decided by the stock price of the preceding period. On the presence of positive feedback trading, stock market returns show characteristics which are different from these assumed in the classical financial theory, and thus make the stock market fluctuate extraordinarily. This essay establishes a model with the participation of positive feedback trader and rational trader,. The irrational traders adopt feedback trading strategy. Based on the model, we used Monte Carlo simulation method to produce a time series. We computed the kurtosis, tail-index and the autocorrelation coefficient of the time series and compared with the relevant quantity of Shanghai stock market index time series. It turned out that our model can provide a powerful expression to the fat-tail and autocorrelation characteristics of stock market return.
  • 详情 A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration in China- Markov Switching Approach
    In this paper we use the new developed Markov Switching Unit Root test to examine the status of real and financial integration of China, Japan, the European Union, and the United States based on the empirical validity of real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. We found strong evidence in favour of those parity conditions and hence concluded that real and financial integration between China and other four countries was well established.
  • 详情 HETEROGENEITY, PROFITABILITY AND AUTOCORRELATIONS
    This paper contributes to the development of recent literature on the explanation power and calibration issue of heterogeneous asset pricing models by presenting a simple stochastic market fraction asset pricing model of two types of traders (fundamentalists and trend followers) under a market maker scenario. Statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations shows that the long-run behaviour and convergence of the market prices, long (short)-run profitability of the fundamental (trend following) trading strategy, survivability of chartists, and various under and over-reaction autocorrelation patterns of returns can be characterized by the stability and bifurcations of the underlying deterministic system. Our analysis underpins mechanism on various market behaviour (such as under/over-reactions), market dominance and stylized facts in high frequency financial markets.