Quasi-natural experiment

  • 详情 Do the Expired Independent Directors Affect Corporate Social Responsibility? Evidence from China
    Why do firms appoint expired independent directors? How do expired independent directors affect corporate governance and thus impact investment decisions? By taking advantage of the sharp increase in expired independent directors’ re-employment in China caused by exogenous regulatory shocks, Rule No. 18 and Regulation 11, this paper adopts a PSM-DID design to test the impact of expired independent directors on CSR performance. We find that firms experience a significant decrease in CSR performance after re-hiring expired independent directors and the effect is stronger for CSR components mostly related to internal governance. The results of robustness tests show that the main results are robust to alternative measures of CSR performance, an extended sample period, alternative control groups, year-by-year PSM method, and a staggered DID model regarding Rule No. 18 as a staggered quasi-natural experiment. We address the endogeneity concern that chance drives our DID results by using exogenous regulatory shock, an instrumental variable (the index of regional guanxi culture), and placebo tests. We also find that the negative relation between the re-employment of expired independent directors and CSR performance is more significant for independent directors who have more relations with CEOs and raise less objection to managers’ decisions, and for firms that rely more on expired independent directors’ monitoring roles (e.g., a lower proportion of independent directors, CEO duality, high growth opportunities, and above-median FCF). The mediating-effect test shows that the re-employment of expired independent directors increases CEOs’ myopia and thus reduces CSR performance. In addition, we exclude the alternative explanation that the negative relation is caused by the protective effect brought by expired independent directors’ political backgrounds. Our study shows that managers may build reciprocal relationships with expired independent directors in the Chinese guanxi culture and gain personal interest.
  • 详情 Creditor protection and asset-debt maturity mismatch: a quasi-natural experiment in China
    Recently, the Chinese Government has strengthened the enforcement of bankruptcy laws to protect creditors’ rights. This study shed light on the effect of creditor protection on asset-debt maturity mismatch by employing a quasi-natural experiment in China. The results show that creditor protection mitigates maturity mismatch, and the effect is more pronounced among financially constrained firms. Results remain robust after the dynamic effects test, placebo test, propensity score matching approach, entropy balancing method, and controlling for COVID-19 shocks. Mechanism tests show that creditor protection decreases the cost of debt and reduces over-investment. The effect of creditor protection is pronounced in private companies, financially independent companies, and companies with secured loans. Creditor rights can alleviate maturity mismatch in firms with medium ownership concentration and managerial ownership levels. Economic consequences studies suggest that creditor protection reduces corporate default risk. This study reveals the mechanism and effect of creditor protection on asset-debt maturity mismatch in emerging markets, providing recommendations to policymakers for assessing and improving bankruptcy law regimes.
  • 详情 Passive investors, active moves: ETFs IPO participation in China
    We examine a unique phenomenon among exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the Chinese stock market, finding that ETFs pervasively participate in initial public offerings (IPOs) to profit from underpricing. The ETF IPO participation passes primary market benefits to retail investors, providing benefits from hard-to-reach investment opportunities. These active moves showing ETFs are not entirely passive highlight the gains of the active management. However, we observe that this activity leads to increased non-fundamental volatility and short-term return reversals, as well as decreased investment-q sensitivity among ETF member stocks, presenting a negative externality. Using a policy shock as the quasi-natural experiment, we establish the causality of these effects, underscoring the dual nature of ETFs active management.
  • 详情 The impact of Strategic Emerging Industries Policy on Corporate Innovation: A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on China's Classification of Strategic Emerging Industries
    Using China's Strategic Emerging Industries Classification (CSEIC), which is enacted in 2018, as a quasi-natural experiment, this study investigates its impact on corporate innovation behaviors. In basic research, we find that: (1) The CSEIC significantly enhances both substantive and strategic innovation; (2) The effect of CSEIC is influenced by the characteristics of the enterprise. Specifically, in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the CSEIC significantly enhances substantive innovation and strategic innovation, while in non-SOEs, the CSEIC only significantly enhances substantive innovation. In further research based on entrepreneurial spirit, we find that: (1) The effect of CSEIC on strategic innovation is suppressed if entrepreneurial patriotism is higher, no matter whether the enterprise is SOEs or non-SOEs; (2) The effect of CSEIC on substantive innovation is enhanced, if and only if entrepreneurial integrity is higher in SOEs or International Vision is higher in non-SOEs. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to foster innovation through targeted support for enterprise leaders, highlighting the need for tailored approaches considering the distinct characteristics of SOEs and non-SOEs.
  • 详情 Banking Liberalization and Analyst Forecast Accuracy
    We study how bank liberalization affects analyst forecast accuracy using two interest rate deregulations in China—the removal of the cap on bank lending rates in 2004 and the removal of the floor in 2013—as quasi-natural experiments. Our results show that the analyst forecast accuracy for high-risk firms decreases significantly after the removal of the lending rate cap, whereas analyst forecast accuracy for low-risk firms increases significantly after the removal of the lending rate floor. Moreover, interest rate liberalization affects forecast accuracy through operational risk and information asymmetry channels. Furthermore, the impact was concentrated on firms whose actual performance fell short of performance expectations and those that received more bank loans. Our findings imply that interest rate liberalization policies may have unintended consequences for analyst forecasts.
  • 详情 Nudging Corporate Environmental Responsibility Through Green Finance? Quasi-Natural Experimental Evidence from China
    Green finance has drawn increased worldwide attention from policymakers as a financial mechanism that could potentially encourage corporations to actively engage in sustainable activities. However, despite a growing body of studies investigating the economic outcomes of green financial policies, there is still a lack of research that systematically quantifies the social welfare implications of green finance. Hence, this study aims to fill this research gap by establishing the causal effect of green finance on corporate environmental responsibility. Exploiting the "bottom-up" enforcement of the green finance pilots in 2017 in China as a quasi-natural experiment and the difference-in-difference-in-difference identification strategy, we find that green finance significantly enhances corporate environmental responsibility performance in high-polluting industries relative to their counterparts, and this evidence continues to survive a battery of robustness checks. Moreover, we explore three underlying mechanisms that possibly explain this beneficial effect: risk-taking, external governance and financing channels. Furthermore, we uncover that corporate environmental responsibility serves as a plausible non-economic channel that combines green finance with economic benefits by stimulating green innovation, promoting total factor productivity and expanding market share. Overall, our study offers new insights on both the economic and non-economic consequences of green finance on business performance.
  • 详情 Has the Digital Transformation of Enterprises Enabled the Improvement of Total Factor Productivity? Empirical Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies
    As digital transformation strategies have emerged as a primary approach for enterprises to enhance their Total Factor Productivity (TFP), it is crucial to empirically examine the impact of these strategies on TFP. For this purpose, this study considers these transformation strategies as a quasi-natural experiment and employees a propensity score-weighted difference-indifferences methodology on data from Chinese firms listed on the A-share market between 2007 and 2020. The key findings include: (1) digital transformation has a significant positive influence on TFP; (2) Generalized boosted regression trees analysis reinforces this finding after controlling for other TFP determinants; (3) notably, non-state-owned and technology-intensive enterprises exhibit a more distinct enhancement in TFP following digital transformation. These results underscore the need for firms to increase investment in research and development capabilities and digital competencies.
  • 详情 Does Air Pollution Cause a Reduction of Housing Prices? New Evidence Using Central Environmental Protection Inspection as a Quasi-Natural Experiment
    This paper investigates the causal effects of air pollution on housing prices in China using a dataset of 65 cities from 2014 to 2021. We employ the central environmental protection inspection (CEPI) as a quasi-natural experiment for air pollution index to show a negative causal relationship between air pollution and housing prices. We also find that this causal relationship is more pronounced for less-developed, manufacturing-intensive and tourismrelied cities. Our results reveal the response to central environmental protection inspection on improvement in regional air pollution protection but its by-effects on housing markets, as the impact is limited if the inspection is conducted repeatedly, suggesting its unsustainability as a regulatory tool.
  • 详情 High-Speed Rail, Information Asymmetry, and Corporate Loan: Evidence from China
    The opening of high-speed rail (HSR) has significantly boosted business development in China. This study constructs a credit rationing model based on the theory of information asymmetry, and takes the opening of HSR as a quasi-natural experiment to empirically examine its impact on the investment and financing decisions among firms with different risk profiles using data from A-share listed companies from 2005 to 2019. The findings reveal that HSR opening significantly reduces corporate short-term loans while increasing long-term loans, without affecting loan costs. Lowriskfirms, as opposed to high-risk ones, experience notable reductions in short-term loan amounts and extended loan terms post-HSR opening. This is attributed to HSR mitigating information asymmetry between banks and firms. Additionally, HSR opening suppresses "short-term debt for long-term use" behaviors, thereby enhancing investment efficiency and quality. The study empirically supports the idea of leveraging HSR's economic stimulus in terms of firm investment and financing.
  • 详情 Can Green Credit Policy Alleviate Inefficient Investment of Heavily Polluting Enterprises? A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the Green Credit Guidelines
    Using the formal implementation of the 2012 Green Credit Guidelines (GCG) as an exogenous shock to construct a quasi-natural experiment, we study the impact of green credit policies on the inefficient investment of heavily polluting firms in China's listed companies from 2008 to 2020. We find that green credit policies can significantly alleviate the inefficient investment of heavily polluting enterprises. By reducing agency costs and long-term liabilities, green credit policies mitigate the problem of inefficient investment in heavily polluting firms. Moreover, the mitigating effect of green credit policies on the inefficient investment of heavily polluting enterprises has significant heterogeneity in terms of property rights, internal characteristics.