This paper studies the economic impact of introducing a personal bankruptcy regime, using China’s recent pilot reforms as a natural experiment. We exploit the staggered rollout of personal bankruptcy frameworks across Chinese cities and construct a novel dataset of bankruptcy case filings, combined with survey-based measures of credit access and official firm registration records. Our difference-in-differences estimates show that the reforms significantly improve small business credit access - business loan take-up increases by 1.3 % (21% relative to pre-reform mean), with no offsetting rise in interest rates. Effects are concentrated among non-corporate firms, firms with less employees and female entrepreneurs. Moreover, the reform is also associated with a 9.7% increase in new firm registrations. To interpret these findings, we develop a simple but novel theoretical model in which personal bankruptcy reduces the downside risk of entrepreneurial failure while preserving creditor recoveries. These findings underscore how debtor protection policies, when designed to reduce enforcement costs without expanding exemption rights, can enhance credit supply and entrepreneurial activity.

This paper examines why tax incentives fail to stimulate participation in China's third-pillar commercial pension insurance, emphasizing the role of rational inattention. Using household survey data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) spanning 2014-2022 and a difference-in-differences-in-differences (DDD) design, we find that pilot policy generated a statistically insignificant average effect on participation, with rational inattention - proxied by financial literacy - explaining much of its ineffectiveness. We develop a dynamic consumption-portfolio model featuring costly information acquisition, and then resolve limitations of standard models through a dynamic framework with distinct savings channels and policy-focused rational inattention. The models show that rational inattention distorts perceptions of tax benefits and wage growth, raising participation costs, while multiple savings channels dilute incentives. Only households with higher financial literacy substantially respond to the policy. Our results reveal how cognitive frictions undermine pension reform and offer implications for designing behaviorally-informed retirement schemes.

We combine a new collection of microdata from China with a natural policy experiment to investigate the extent to which reductions in rural-urban migration barriers affect flows of trade and investments between cities and the countryside. We find that increases in worker eligibility for urban residence registration (Hukou) across origin-destination pairs increase rural-urban exports, imports, capital inflows and outflows, both in terms of bilateral transaction values and the number of unique buyer-seller matches. To quantify the implications at the regional level, we interpret these estimates through the lens of a spatial equilibrium model in which migrants can reduce buyer- seller matching frictions. We find that a 10% increase in a rural county’s migration market access on average leads to a 1.5% increase in the county’s trade market access and a 2% increase in investment market access. In the context of China’s recent Hukou reforms, we find that these knock-on effects on market integration were on average larger among the urban destinations compared to the rural origins, reinforcing incentives for rural-urban migration.

The reform of the IPO registration system is a crucial step toward the maturity, improvement, and marketization of the securities market. In recent years, the trend of corporate financialization has become increasingly evident. Based on data from firms listed on the ChiNext Market and the Main Board, this paper constructs a Propensity Score Matching-Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DID) model and an RDD-DID model to examine the impact of IPO registration system reform on corporate financialization and analyze its underlying mechanisms from multiple perspectives. The estimation results of both models indicate that the IPO registration system reform has significantly increased firms’ financialization levels. Furthermore, a series of robustness checks confirm the reliability of the findings. The mechanism analysis reveals that the reform has promoted corporate financialization by lowering listing thresholds, alleviating financing constraints, and intensifying market competition. Meanwhile, its information disclosure mechanism has to some extent curbed financialization. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the reform’s promoting effect is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises, firms with lower growth potential, and those with weaker corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance. This study enriches the literature on the policy impact of IPO registration system reform, provides a new perspective on how such reforms influence corporate financialization, and offers important implications for curbing excessive financialization in real-sector enterprises, deepening IPO registration system reform, and further improving capital markets.

We construct a daily Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index by applying GPT-4o to Chinese news articles. Our method outperforms traditional models in several validation tests, including a test based on a suite of machine learning models. Applying this index to household-level data, we find that after monetary easing, an important group of homebuyers (who have a college degree and are aged between 30 and 50) in cities with more optimistic housing sentiment have lower responses in non-housing consumption, whereas for homebuyers in other age-education groups, such a pattern does not exist. This suggests that current monetary easing might be more effective in boosting non-housing consumption than in the past for China due to weaker crowding-out effects from pessimistic housing sentiment. The paper also highlights the need for complementary structural reforms to enhance monetary policy transmission in China, a lesson relevant for other similar countries. Methodologically, it offers a tool for monitoring housing sentiment and lays out some principles for applying generative AI models, adaptable to other studies globally.

This research study primarily examines the digital transformation’s internal mechanism promoting enterprises’ total factor productivity (TFP) based on the matching and learning mechanism. Afterward, this research article empirically examines the digital transformation’s influential mechanism on enterprises’ TFP, using the Chinese listed companies’ data on the “A” stock market for the time period ranging from 2007 to 2019. The major study findings are as follows: (1) the improvement of the digital transformation significantly increases enterprises’ TFP. The proposed conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness- and the endogeneity test. (2) Furthermore, mechanism analysis reveals that digital transformation effectively enhances enterprises’ TFP by eliminating resource misallocation in the industry. In addition to this, digital transformation relies on the mechanism of “learning by doing” to promote the technological innovation’s spillover effect; hence, effectively enhancing enterprises’ TFP. (3) Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the digital transformation’s impact on enterprises’ TFP is heterogeneous in the context of enterprise size, enterprise type, and enterprise ownership. Lastly, this study puts forward that government bodies should intensify the construction and investment in digital infrastructure, promote a series of institutional reforms, and support digital technological R&D practices.

We study the role of firm heterogeneity and imperfect competition for global production networks and the gains from trade. We develop a quantifiable trade model with two-sided firm heterogeneity, matching frictions, and oligopolistic competition upstream. More productive buyers endogenously match with more suppliers, thereby inducing tougher competition among them to enjoy lower input costs and superior performance. Transaction-level customs data confirms that downstream French and Chilean firms import higher values and quantities at lower prices as upstream Chinese markets become more competitive over time, with stronger responses by larger firms. Moreover, suppliers charge more diversified buyers lower mark-ups. Counterfactual analysis indicates that entry upstream benefits high-productivity buyers, while lower matching or trade costs benefit all buyers, with the biggest boost to mid-productivity buyers. All three shocks generate sizeable welfare gains, especially under package reforms. Global production networks thus mediate bigger effects and cross-border spillovers from industrial and trade policies.

In China, inadequate levels of cross-regional investment represent a challenge. Our study uses the bailout reform initiated in China in 2014 to test whether market-oriented reforms of this type can help stimulate national economic integration. We observed that following a bond default event, nonlocal listed firms tend to establish a higher proportion of subsidiaries in the province where the default occurred. This phenomenon can be attributed to China’s bailout reform signaling a reduction in local protectionism in financial and product markets. Meanwhile, we found that the effects of bond defaults on cross-regional investment are more pronounced under the following conditions: when the impact of the bond default is greater; when the economic and fiscal conditions of the province where default occurs are better; when local protectionism in the home province is higher; and when the degree of asset specificity of the listed firms is lower. Finally, we found that China’s bailout reform has led to positive economic consequences, including reduced operational risks and improved total factor productivity (TFP) of firms. Overall, our paper supplements the literature on bond defaults and cross-regional investment.

This study documents how the political hierarchy plays a significant role in determining corporate environmental governance. By conducting difference-in-differences analysis to investigate listed firms in China, this study demonstrates that local and central SOEs headquartered in jurisdictions far removed from central government supervision have worse environmental governance than POEs. Verticalization reforms implemented in 2016 enable provincial environmental protection bureaus to direct lower-level bureaus. Local governments cannot control environmental protection bureau leaders for economic development. This study finds that the corporate environmental governance of local SOEs has significantly improved following the reform, as local environmental protection bureaus no longer have conflicts of interest with local governments. However, the reform has not resulted in improvements to corporate environmental governance in central SOEs, whose executives occupy higher status than provincial Environmental Protection Bureau leaders, nor in POEs, which were already managed before the reform. Further evidence indicates that local SOEs experience an increase in abatement investments and relationship building expenses following the reform. Lastly, our study reveals that verticalization reform costs are negligible. Local SOEs have not experienced a decline in financial performance or corporate valuation. This study suggests that policymakers should consider the political ranking of government agencies and enterprises to improve environmental governance.

This paper investigates how domestic policy uncertainty stemming from discretionary fiscal policy disrupts the efficient capital allocation across firms. While fiscal policy represents the government’s reaction to economic conditions, its volatility presents firms with considerable uncertainty about conditions affecting their future profitability and consequently disrupts firms’ decisions on investment in the presence of capital adjustment costs. Using firm-level data from Chinese manufacturing industries spanning from 1998 to 2007, we find that reducing fiscal policy volatility leads to a decrease in the dispersion of marginal revenue product of capital, accounting for 8.9 percent of the observed improvement in capital allocation during the sample period. In addition to various fiscal reforms to curb fiscal policy volatility directly, policies contributing to lower capital adjustment costs and lower reliance of firms on government expenditure can alleviate the adverse effects caused by fiscal policy volatility.