SHAP

  • 详情 Delegation under Risk in IPO Pricing: Evidence from China’s Subscription Reform
    This paper develops a delegation-based framework to explain how institutional design shapes pricing incentives under risk. Using China’s 2016 IPO reform—which abolished prefunding requirements and transferred payment obligations from investors to underwriters—as a natural experiment, we show that introducing subscription-payment risk (SPR) renders underwriter’s partial residual claimants with respect to unpaid allocations. Building on Baron’s (1982) delegation model, we argue that the reform amplifies information asymmetry and induces underwriters to adopt more conservative pricing strategies to manage perceived payment risk. Empirically, IPOs exposed to SPR exhibit greater underpricing and lower offer prices, particularly when investor bids reflect stronger valuation pessimism. The effect tends to be less pronounced for reputable underwriters and when foreign institutional investors participate. Overall, the evidence demonstrates how risk redistribution and institutional frictions jointly shape underwriter behavior and pricing efficiency in primary equity markets.
  • 详情 Digital Signals in the Market for Corporate Control: How AI Transformation Affects M&A Outcomes in China
    This study examines the role of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in the market for corporate control using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2011 to 2021. We construct a novel firm-level AI Index through textual analysis of annual reports and find that AI adoption significantly enhances both the likelihood of becoming an acquisition target and the valuation premiums commanded in M&A transactions. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation increase in the AI Index is associated with a significant increase in the probability of being acquired and higher deal premiums measured by price-to-earnings multiples. We identify two channels through which AI adoption creates value recognized by the M&A market: an efficiency channel, whereby AI reduces agency costs and improves profitability, and an innovation channel, evidenced by increased high-quality patent output. The persistence of these effects over time further suggests that AI adoption generates substantive improvements in firm fundamentals rather than serving as a transitory informational signal. Importantly, we document significant heterogeneity across ownership structures: the positive effects of AI adoption are substantially weaker for State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) than for non-SOEs. Our findings contribute to the literature on digital transformation and corporate finance by demonstrating that AI adoption serves as a value-relevant firm attribute that shapes outcomes in the market for corporate control.
  • 详情 Political Accountability and Local Government Debt: Evidence from China *
    This study investigates how the interaction of political accountability and local officials’ career incentives shapes the market for Municipal Corporate Bonds (MCBs) in China, taking the 2017 local government debt personal responsibility rule as a quasinatural experiment. We develop a stylized incomplete-information bargaining model to analyze how the rule reshapes the bargaining equilibrium by rendering officials’ observable characteristics credible signals of bailout incentives. Using a dataset of prefecture-level MCBs from 2008 to 2020, we empirically test the model’s predictions and focus on separating officials’ incentive effects from their inherent ability. Our core findings show that post-announcement of the rule, each additional year of a local party secretary’s remaining time to retirement, a proxy for bailout incentives, reduces MCB spreads by approximately 2.5 basis points and increases issuance volume by about 2.0%. These effects are significantly amplified in fiscally stressed cities. Notably, under the 2017 rule, cities led by party secretaries with stronger bailout incentives can expand MCB issuance, which is contrary to the rule’s original intent to rein in local borrowing.
  • 详情 Mandatory Industry Disclosure, Proprietary Costs, and Bond Credit Spreads: Evidence from China
    A central premise of mandatory disclosure regulation is that greater transparency reduces information asymmetry and lowers borrowing costs. We challenge this premise by examining industry-level operational disclosure - a regulatory form that reveals horizontally comparable information across peer firms rather than refining individual firm fundamentals. Exploiting the staggered introduction of mandatory industry-specific disclosure guidelines by Chinese stock exchanges between 2013 and 2019, we find that enhanced industry disclosure significantly widens bond credit spreads by approximately 54 basis points - the opposite of what standard disclosure theory predicts. This counterintuitive effect is more pronounced in non-homogeneous industries, among smaller firms, and for bonds restricted to institutional investors. Mechanism tests confirm two opposing channels: disclosure reduces information asymmetry while simultaneously intensifying product market competition by exposing strategically sensitive operational metrics. Our evidence challenges the one-size-fits-all approach to disclosure regulation and highlights that the competitive implications of disclosed information - not merely its quantity - shape credit risk pricing.
  • 详情 Beyond Democratic Assumptions: Altruism, Political Citizenship and State-Society Relations in Contemporary China
    This study challenges democratic citizenship theory by examining altruistic behaviour in authoritarian China. We find that financial resources influence prosocial engagement primarily through psychological mediators such as long-term planning and self-discovery, rather than directly providing material means for participation. Communist Party membership shapes specific domestic ideological orientations, but not attitudes toward market regulation or income equality, while cultural tradition emerges as a stronger predictor of certain political attitudes than party affiliation. Cluster analysis identifies three distinct citizen profiles: (1) future-oriented altruists; (2) status-driven contributors; and, (3) short-termpragmatists, revealing motivational heterogeneity within authoritarian publics. These findings suggest that authoritarian citizenship operates through psychological mediation and plural motivational pathways fundamentally different from democratic societies, with potential applicability to other single-party regimes where states actively structure prosocial behaviour. The study contributes to comparative authoritarianism literature by theorizing how regime type moderates the relationship between socio-economic resources, political identity, and civic engagement.
  • 详情 From Invoicing to Anchoring: How RMB Swap Lines Shape Exchange Rate Anchoring in Small Open Economies
    This paper studies whether and how policies that promote a currency’s use in international invoicing can also strengthen its role as an anchor currency in other economies’ exchange rate baskets. We exploit the establishment of swap lines by the People’s Bank of China as a natural setting to examine this mechanism. First, we estimate countries’ implicit currency baskets and the weights assigned to the RMB. We then use a staggered difference-in-differences design to assess the effect of initiating swap line agreements on the RMB’s weights in these baskets. Our results indicate that RMB weights increase by approximately 5% about nine months after a swap line is introduced and remain persistently higher thereafter. Finally, we develop a three-country DSGE model to interpret these findings, showing that by promoting RMB invoicing, swap lines reinforce the RMB’s role as an anchor currency for exchange rate stabilization.
  • 详情 Beyond Technological Determinism: Institutional Capacity and Faculty Empowerment Driving Digitalizing in Higher Education-Evidence from Northwest China
    Digitalization is widely promoted as a means to enhance faculty development, yet in resource-constrained regions like Northwest China, structural inequalities persist. This qualitative case study examines how national policy, institutional capacity, and faculty agency interact to shape digital support in higher education. Drawing on institutional records and interviews with faculty from two universities, the study reveals stark disparities in funding, infrastructure, and training strategies. Research-intensive institutions benefit from policy-backed resources and expert-led programs, while regional universities rely on low-cost lectures and collaborations. Faculty report limited autonomy, disciplinary biases, and insufficient support for emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. In this regional context, these findings challenge assumptions of resource neutrality and technological determinism in digital education policy. The study proposes a governance-oriented framework that emphasizes institutional responsibility, faculty empowerment, and context-sensitive digital strategies. It offers insights for policymakers and institutions seeking to advance equitable and sustainable faculty development in digitally transforming higher education systems.
  • 详情 How Trust Shapes the Fate of Natural Resources Co-Management? Applying Trust Theory To Two Communities in the S Protected Area in China
    Community-based natural resource governance is often promoted in the name of sustainability, yet long-term outcomes remain elusive. This study examines the impact of various types of trust as the underpinning factor for the long-term resilience of collaborative resource governance. Using a four-type trust framework, dispositional, affinitive, rational, and procedural, the study compares trust trajectories across the prior to-, during-, and post-project phases of matsutake mushroom management in two communities within the S National Protected Area, Yunnan Province, China. Drawing on qualitative interviews and comparative case analysis, the study finds that while neither community sustained co-management mechanisms in full, X Village retained partial continuity through embedded procedural and rational trust. In contrast, Y village experienced accelerated institutional decline after project withdrawal, as market changes and weak enforcement undermined collective norms and trust in formal structures. These findings underscore that institutional resilience is shaped not only by institutional design but also by the evolution and interaction of trust types over time. By tracing trust trajectories across project stages, this study contributes a micro-level explanation of how trust mediates post-project governance outcomes. It emphasizes the importance of layering trust and embedding it within local social and institutional practices. The findings highlight the need to consider how co-management strategies can support trust continuity after project withdrawal, particularly by acknowledging the underlying structural conditions that shape trust resilience.
  • 详情 Determinants of Firm Survival Using Machine Learning: Evidence from the Pearl River Delta, China
    Firm survival, as a key indicator of regional economic resilience, has gained increasing attention in the context of global economic uncertainty and the deep adjustments in industrial structures. In the Pearl River Delta (PRD), a core region of China’s Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, the characteristics of firm life cycles are crucial for understanding spatial development inequalities and institutional effects in emerging economies. This study focuses on firms in the PRD, using full life-cycle data from registration, operation, to deregistration. An XGBoost regression model is employed, incorporating the SHAP explanation algorithm, to systematically analyze the main factors influencing firm survival. The results show that: (1) Firm establishment time is the primary factor influencing survival, with significant “survival threshold” and “growth leap” effects—mature firms exhibit a distinct survival advantage; (2) Among spatial structure variables, moderate industry specialization and diversity enhance firm survival rates, while excessive concentration and diversification show diminishing or negative returns, reflecting an “ecological threshold” effect; (3) External shocks have a significant suppressive impact on startups, while policy support and capital size show limited explanatory power; (4) The ownership structure, especially state-holding, has a positive moderating effect on firm survival in specific contexts, indicating that private enterprises’ flexibility and adaptability can compensate for institutional gaps. This study offers insights into the spatial heterogeneity of firm survival mechanisms, providing quantitative evidence for regional economic policy adjustments and firm resilience-building. Recommendations include promoting differentiated policies, optimizing industrial ecological spatial layouts, and piloting systems to enhance survival resilience, especially for mixed-ownership firms.
  • 详情 Value Investment and Gambling: An Integrated Asset Pricing Model Based on Q and Salience Theory
    We interpret industry discount rates as proxies for value investment, grounded in Q theory, while capturing gambling preferences through salience theory. Integrating these perspectives, we propose a novel asset pricing model (ST-ICAPM) that unifies value investment and salience factors, evaluating its pricing efficacy across Chinese industries from 2004 to 2023. Empirical results show that investment factors tend to negatively predict future returns, while growth factors command risk premia. However, profitability factors exhibit limited explanatory power. Investor expectations are primarily driven by profit growth, emphasizing the need to enhance profit stability for a value-oriented market. Salience intensity, especially when measured via eigenvector centrality within industry networks, serves as a strong negative predictor of returns, emphasizing the importance of conceptual connections over purely economic linkages in shaping investor behavior. Robust tests confirm that the ST-ICAPM outperforms benchmark models (FF3, CARHART4, FF5, ICAPM, and STCAPM) in terms of pricing power. Our findings emphasize the need to promote value investing and restrain gambling behavior as essential strategies to cultivate a resilient capital market in China.