SHAP

  • 详情 Urban Riparian Exposure, Climate Change, and Public Financing Costs in China
    We construct a new geospatial measure using high-resolution river vector data from National Geomatics Center of China (NGCC) to study how urban riparian exposure shapes local government debt financing costs. Our base-line results show that cities with higher riparian exposures have significantly lower credit spreads, with a one-standard-deviation increase in riparian exposure reducing credit spreads by approximately 12 basis points. By comparing cities crossed by natural rivers with those intersected by artificial canals, we disentangle the dual role of riparian zones as sources of natural capital benefits (e.g., enhanced transportation capacity) versus climate risks (e.g., flood vulnerability). We find that climate change has amplified the impact of natural disasters, such as floods and droughts, particularly in riparian zones, thus weakening the cost-reducing effect of riparian exposure on bond financing. In contrast, improved water infrastructure and flood-control facilities strengthen the cost-reduction effect. Our findings contribute to the literature on natural capital and government financing, offering valuable implications for public finance and risk management.
  • 详情 Positive Press, Greener Progress: The Role of ESG Media Reputation in Corporate Energy Innovation
    The growing emphasis on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles, particularly in corporate sectors, shapes investment trends and operational strategies, whose shift is supported by the increasing role of media in monitoring and influencing corporate ESG performance, thereby driving the energy innovation. Therefore, based on reported events from Baidu News and patent text information of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2022, this study innovatively applied machine learning and text analysis to measure ESG news sentiment and corporate energy innovation indicators. Combing with reputation, stakeholder, and agency theories, we find that a good reputation conveyed by positive ESG textual sentiments in the media significantly promotes corporate energy innovation, and the effect is mainly realized through alleviating financing constraints and agency problems and promoting green investment. Further analysis shows that ESG news sentiment promotes corporate energy innovation mainly among private firms, non-growth-stage firms, high-energy-consuming firms, and regions with better green finance development and higher ESG governance intensity. From the perspective of ESG news content and information content, greater ESG news attention can also exert an energy innovation incentive effect, in which the incentive effect exerted by positive media sentiment in the environmental (E) and social (S) dimensions, as well as excellent attention, is more robust. This study provides new insights for promoting green and low-carbon development and understanding the external governance role of media in corporate ESG development.
  • 详情 The impact of ESG performances on analyst report readability: Evidence from China
    It has been widely recognized that firms’ environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performances are crucial for shaping their information environments. Nonetheless, the impact of ESG performances on important analyst report attributes still remains clear. Our study reveals that superior firm. ESG performances significantly enhance the analyst report readability. The mechanism analysis demonstrates that this effect is primarily driven by increased information accessibility (the information acquisition channel) and greater analysts’ research efforts (the analyst effort channel). As expected, this effect is more pronounced in firms operating in highly polluted industries, firms with opaque financial infomration and state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Finally, our findings reveal that the release of analyst reports triggers higher market reactions for firms with superior ESG performances. In overall, our study highlights the criticial role of firm ESG performances in boosting financial analysts’ information production process.
  • 详情 From Endowed Trust to Earned Trust: Firms Located in Trusted Regions
    Trust can be obtained by firm location (endowed trust) or behaviors (earned trust). We are interested in whether firms located in trusted regions are more likely to protect stakeholders’ benefits as a strategy to earn trust. Based on a sample of Chinese firms, we find a significant and positive correlation between regional endowed trust and local firms’ environmental and social commitment. We suggest that endowed trust has two effects: 1) shaping local firms’ legal cognition and thus decreasing misconducts; and 2) providing resources and thus mitigating financial constraints, both of which encourage firms to protect the environment and society. Moreover, the positive effect of high endowed trust is weakened when corporate governance or local legal environment is strong.
  • 详情 Unpacking the Green Paradox: The Role of ESG in Shaping the Impact of Digital Transformation on Total Factor Productivity
    Utilizing data from Chinese A-share listed companies, this study investigates the effects of digital transformation (DT) on total factor productivity (TFP) and the moderating function of ESG performance. The results indicate that DT boosts TFP, but ESG performance negatively moderates this effect, revealing the green paradox. A dynamic model of factor allocation efficiency shows that DT improves capital allocation by reducing financing constraints, information asymmetry, and enhancing operational capacity. However, ESG weakens the positive link between DT and operational capacity, thus diminishing its impact on TFP. Similarly, DT increases labor productivity, but ESG undermines this effect by weakening the link between DT and labor efficiency. The positive impact of DT is stronger when firms focus on ‘Practical Application Technologies’ rather than ‘Underlying Technologies’. This effect is especially evident in smaller, asset-intensive, non-state-owned firms, and those located in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Additionally, ESG’s negative moderation is more pronounced where DT exerts a stronger positive influence. A notable distinction emerges: asset-intensive firms gain more from DT in terms of TFP, whereas ESG’s adverse effect is stronger in labour-intensive firms. This study offers a novel perspective on the interplay between DT, ESG performance, and productivity. It provides valuable insights for firms seeking to align digital strategies with ESG goals, thereby fostering technological innovation alongside sustainable development.
  • 详情 IPO Lottery, Mutual Fund Performance, and Market Stability
    This paper examines how profits from mutual funds’ participation in initial public offerings (IPOs) shape fund performance, investor flows, and market stability in China. Using comprehensive fund–IPO matched data from 2016 to 2023, we decompose fund returns into an IPO-lottery component and residual performance. At the aggregate level, IPO allocations add 2.05% to annualized excess returns; net of IPOs, excess return is −0.35% per year. At the individual level, the contribution of IPO profits varies substantially across funds and is most pronounced among mid-sized funds, inflating perceived managerial skill. Funds with higher IPO-driven gains attract greater inflows despite the absence of performance persistence, leading to capital misallocation. At the market level, IPO-profit-induced trading (PIT) predicts short horizon price run-ups that dissipate and reverse over subsequent months, while raising both total and idiosyncratic volatility. Overall, IPO profits temporarily enhance reported performance but erode market stability by propagating non-fundamental shocks through secondary markets.
  • 详情 The Optimality of Gradualism in Economies with Financial Markets
    We develop a model economy with active financial markets in which a policymaker's adoption of a gradualistic approach constitutes a Bayesian Nash equilibrium. In our model, the ex ante policy proposal influences the supply side of the economy, while the ex post policy action affects the demand side and shapes market equilibrium. When choosing policies, the policymaker internalizes the impact of her decisions on the precision of the firm-value signal. Moreover, financial markets provide a price signal that informs the government. The policymaker learns about the productivity shocks not only from firm-value performance signals but also from financial market prices. Access to information through both channels creates strong incentives for the policymaker to adopt a gradualistic approach in a time-consistent manner. Smaller policy steps yield more precise information about the productivity shock. These results hold robustly for both exogenous and endogenous information models.
  • 详情 Extrapolative expectations and asset returns: Evidence from Chinese mutual funds
    We examine how mutual funds form stock market expectations and the implications of these beliefs for asset returns, using a novel text-based measure extracted from Chinese fund reports. Funds extrapolate from recent stock market and fund returns when forming expectations, with more recent returns receiving greater weight. This recency tendency is weaker among more experienced managers. At the aggregate level, consensus expectations positively predict short-term future market returns, both in and out of sample. At the fund level, expectations are positively related to subsequent fund performance in the time series. In the cross-section, however, superior performance arises only when funds accurately forecast market direction and adjust their portfolios accordingly. This effect is stronger for optimistic forecasts and among funds with greater exposure to liquid stocks. Our findings highlight the conditional nature of belief-driven performance, shaped jointly by forecasting skill and the ability to implement views in the presence of execution frictions such as short-selling and liquidity constraints.
  • 详情 How Does Media Environment Affect Firm Innovation? Evidence from a Market-Oriented Media Reform in China
    Exploiting a unique market-oriented media reform initiated in 1996 in China, we investigate the role of media environment in affecting firm behaviour. We find robust evidence that market-oriented media environment is conductive to firm innovation, with the reform promoting patent quantity and quality substantially. The effect is more pronounced for firms with higher information asymmetry. Matching firm data with 1.3 million news reports, we find the market-oriented media reform significantly improves the criticalness and unbiasedness of news coverage and shapes an innovation-friendly environment. Our findings highlight economic outcomes of relaxing media control and underline substantial gains from deepening the reform.
  • 详情 ESG and Stock Price Volatility Risk: Evidence from Chinese A-Share Market
    This paper investigates whether Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance influences the stock idiosyncratic risk and extreme risk. We find that the ESG performance of listed companies significantly reduces the stock idiosyncratic risk and extreme risk. Furthermore, we identify that this mitigating effect is shaped by the nature of enterprise ownership and the firm life cycle. Through additional mechanistic analysis, we confirm that ESG performance affects the stock price volatility risk of listed companies by reducing levels of corporate earnings management and bolstering corporate reputation, thereby alleviating both idiosyncratic risk and extreme risk in stock prices.