TAR

  • 详情 When Walls Become Targets: Strategic Speculation and Price Dynamics under Price Limit
    This study shows how price limit rules, intended to stabilize markets, inadvertently distort price dynamics by fostering strategic speculation. Through a dynamic rational expectations model, we demonstrate that price limits induce post limit-up price jumps by impeding full information incorporation, enabling speculators to artificially push prices to upper bounds and exploit uninformed traders. The model predicts two distinct patterns: (1) stocks closing at price limits exhibit positive overnight returns followed by long-term reversals, and (2) stocks retreating from upper bounds suffer sharp reversals with partial recovery. Empirical analysis confirms these predictions. A natural experiment from China’s 2020 GEM reform —- which widened the price limit -— further provides causal evidence that relaxed limits mitigate speculative distortions.
  • 详情 Reevaluating Environmental Policies from the Perspectives of Input-Output Networks and Firm Dynamics and Heterogeneity: Carbon Emission Trading in China
    We (re)evaluate the general-equilibrium effects of (environmental) policies from the perspectives of input-output networks and firm dynamics and heterogeneity. Using China’s carbon emission trading system (ETS) as an example, we find that ETS leads to more patent applications, especially the ones associated with low-carbon technologies in the targeted sectors. The effects are muted at the firm level due to selection effects, whereby only larger firms are significantly and positively affected. Meanwhile, larger firms occupy a small share in number but a large share of aggregate outcomes, contributing to the discrepancy between the effects of ETS at the individual firm and aggregate sector levels. The effects also diffuse in input-output networks, leading to more patents in upstream/downstream sectors. We build and estimate the first firm dynamics model with input-output linkages and regulatory policies in the literature and conduct policy experiments. ETS’s effects are amplified given input-output networks.
  • 详情 Capital market liberalization and corporate debt maturity structure: evidence from the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock connect
    Purpose – This paper takes the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect as a quasi-natural experimentand investigates the impact of capital market liberalization on the corporate debt maturity structure. It also aimsto provide some policy implications for corporate debt financing and further liberalization of the capital marketin China. Design/methodology/approach – Employing the exogenous event of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong StockConnect and using the data of Chinese A-share firms from 2010 to 2020, this study constructs a difference-in-differences model to examine the relationship between capital market liberalization and corporate debt maturitystructure. To validate the results, this study performed several robustness tests, including the parallel test, theplacebo test, the Heckman two-stage regression and the propensity score matching. Findings – This paper finds that capital market liberalization has significantly increased the proportion of long-term debt of target firms. Further analyses suggest that the impact of capital market liberalization on thedebt maturity structure is more pronounced for firms with lower management ownership and non-Big 4 audit.Channel tests show that capital market liberalization improves firms’ information environment and curbsself-interested management behavior. Originality/value – This research provides empirical evidence for the consequences of capital marketliberalization and enriches the literature on the determinants of corporate debt maturity structure. Further thisstudy makes a reference for regulators and financial institutions to improve corporate financing through thegovernance role of capital market liberalization.
  • 详情 Carbon financial system construction under the background of dual-carbon targets: current situation, problems and suggestions
    Under the guidance of the dual-carbon target, the development of the carbon financial system is of great significance to compensate for the gap between green and low-carbon investment. Considering the current state of the development of carbon financial system, China has initially formed a carbon financial system, including participants, carbon financial products and macro and micro operation structures, but the system is still in the initial development stage. Given the current restrictions on the development of carbon finance, it can be seen that there are still problems such as unreasonable economic structure, insufficient market construction, single product category, low utilization rate and urgent construction of relevant judicial guarantee system. Therefore, the system should be improved at the economic level and the legal level. The economic level includes adjusting the layout of economic development structure, strengthening the construction of market infrastructure, encouraging the diversification of carbon financial products and strengthening publicity and education promotion strategies. The legal level includes improving the top-level design, formulating judicial interpretation to promote carbon financial trading, promoting commercial law amendment, and promoting the linkage mechanism between specialized environmental justice and carbon finance and other safeguard measures. Finally, improving the carbon finance system is required to promote and protect the orderly development of carbon finance. To promote the reform of the pattern of economic development, the concept of ecological and environmental protection in the financial sector needs to be implemented to form an overall pattern of pollution reduction, carbon reduction and synergistic efficiency improvement.
  • 详情 A welfare analysis of the Chinese bankruptcy market
    How much value has been lost in the Chinese bankruptcy system due to excessive liquidation of companies whose going concern value is greater than the liquidation value? I compile new judiciary bankruptcy auction data covering all bankruptcy asset sales from 2017 to 2022 in China. I estimate the valuation of the asset for both the final buyer and creditor through the revealed preference method using an auction model. On average, excessive liquidation results in a 13.5% welfare loss. However, solely considering the liquidation process, an 8% welfare gain is derived from selling the asset without transferring it to the creditors. Firms that are (1) larger in total asset size, (2) have less information disclosure, (3) have less access to the financial market, and (4) possess a higher fraction of intangible assets are more vulnerable to such welfare loss. Overall, this paper suggests that policies promoting bankruptcy reorganization by introducing distressed investors who target larger bankruptcy firms suffering more from information asymmetry will significantly enhance welfare in the Chinese bankruptcy market.
  • 详情 The Unintended Real Effects of Regulator-Led Minority Shareholder Activism: Evidence from Corporate Innovation
    We investigate the unintended real effects of regulator-led minority shareholder activism on corporate innovation. We use manually collected data from the China Securities Investor Services Center (CSISC), a novel regulatory investor protection institution controlled by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) that holds 100 shares of every listed firm. We find that by exercising its shareholder rights, the CSISC substantially curtails the innovation output of targeted firms. This effect is amplified in cases involving a high level of myopic pressure and few innovation incentives. We further observe variation in the real effects of different intervention methods. Textual analysis reveals that CSISC intervention with a myopic topic and negative tone contributes to a decrease in innovation. The results of a mechanism analysis support the hypothesis that regulator-led minority shareholder activism induces managerial myopia and financial constraints, impeding corporate innovation. Furthermore, CSISC intervention not only diminishes innovation output but also undermines innovation efficiency. In summary, our findings suggest that regulator-led minority shareholder activism exacerbates managerial myopia to cater to investors and financial constraints, ultimately stifling corporate innovation.
  • 详情 Dissecting the Sentiment-Driven Green Premium in China with a Large Language Model
    The general financial theory predicts a carbon premium, as brown stocks bear greater uncertainty under climate transition. However, a contrary green premium has been identified in China, as evidenced by the return spread between green and brown sectors. The aggregated climate transition sentiment, measured from news data using a large language model, explains 12%-33% of the variability in the anomalous alpha. This factor intensifies after China announced its national commitments. The sentiment-driven green premium is attributed to speculative trading by retail investors targeting green “concept stocks.” Additionally, the discussion highlights the advantages of large language models over lexicon-based sentiment analysis.
  • 详情 COVID-19 exposure, financial flexibility, and corporate leverage adjustment
    This study examines how firm-level exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic affects the speed of leverage adjustment among 3260 US-listed firms from 2019q1 to 2022q1. Using a novel measure of COVID-19 exposure, we find that higher exposure significantly reduces the speed at which firms adjust their leverage towards target levels. This effect is more pronounced for financially constrained firms and those operating in competitive markets. We further show that COVID-19 exposure adversely impacts corporate liquidity, default risk, and financial flexibility. Our findings highlight the role of exogenous shocks in shaping corporate financing decisions.
  • 详情 Target's Earnings Purity and M&A Premium: Evidence from China
    The study introduces 'earnings purity,' a concept based on the 'gold content' of target earnings, to evaluate its impact on merger and acquisition (M&A) premiums. Our findings reveal that targets with higher earnings purity command increased valuations and premiums. Further analysis of the information effects uncovers a U-shaped relationship between earnings purity and negotiation duration, suggesting that elevated premiums might not always be justified. The heterogeneity test indicates that the effect of a target firm's earnings purity on M&A premiums is more pronounced in cross-border and inter-industry M&As. However, it is less influential in cases with larger target firms and better external conditions. These results highlight the dual aspects of M&As, presenting them as both advantageous and potentially hazardous.
  • 详情 Reevaluating Environmental Policies from the Perspectives of Input-Output Networks and Firm Dynamics and Heterogeneity: Carbon Emission Trading in China
    We (re)evaluate the general-equilibrium effects of (environmental) policies from the perspectives of input-output networks and firm dynamics and heterogeneity. Using China’s carbon emission trading system (ETS) as an example, we find that ETS leads to more patent applications, especially the ones associated with low-carbon technologies in the targeted sectors. The effects are muted at the firm level due to selection effects, whereby only larger firms are significantly and positively affected. Meanwhile, larger firms occupy a small share in number but a large share of aggregate outcomes, contributing to the discrepancy between the effects of ETS at the individual firm and aggregate sector levels. The effects also diffuse in input-output networks, leading to more patents in upstream/downstream sectors. We build and estimate the first firm dynamics model with input-output linkages and regulatory policies in the literature and conduct policy experiments. ETS’s effects are amplified given input-output networks.