TAR

  • 详情 Governing water with digital: The institutional configurations of digital ecology enabling high-quality development of water conservancy
    High-quality development of water conservancy (HDWC) is of critical value for safeguarding the stability of production systems, livelihoods, and ecosystems. As the digital revolution intersects with China’s “dual carbon” targets, development of water conservancy must transition from traditional engineering approaches to data-driven ecological models. Drawing on institutional logic theory and employing dynamic qualitative comparative analysis across 30 Chinese provinces, this study examines how digital ecology facilitates the HDWC. The findings reveal that none of digital government, digital infrastructure, digital economy, digital capability, or digital society constitutes a necessary condition for the HDWC. Instead, it is the result of the combined effects of multiple institutional logics. Five configurations leading to HDWC are identified and categorized into four types: government-market-driven model, government-market-society-driven model, market-society-driven model, and government-society-driven model. The consistency of the configurations significantly increased during the study period. Furthermore, their distribution showed substantial regional differences. There are two configurations that inhibit the HDWC, namely the government-market-absence type and the market-society-absence type. Digital society emerges as a critical factor. This research uncovers multiple pathways through which digital ecology can empower HDWC, providing valuable insights for optimizing regional digital environments.
  • 详情 Local Decentralization, Location Endowments, and County-Level Economic Development: Evidence from China's County-to-City Reform Policy
    The relationship between economic decentralization and regional economic growth has attracted wide academic attention. However, existing literature rarely explores the validity and applicability of decentralization theory from the perspective of location endowments. This study takes China’s county-to-city reform - a decentralization policy - as a point of entry to construct a decentralization model incorporating location endowments. Using county-level panel data from 1992 to 2009 and employing a difference-in-differences (DID) approach, the study evaluates the impact of county-to-city reform under the constraint of location endowments on county-level economic development. The findings reveal that the policy effects of local decentralization are constrained by location endowments. Specifically, in regions with poorer location endowments, county-to-city reform significantly inhibits local economic development. Indeed, mechanism analysis further indicates that in such disadvantaged regions, local decentralization under the county-to-city reform generates a “political resource curse” effect, which hinders economic growth through three channels such as distorted fiscal expenditure structures, corruption, and misallocation of land resources. The conclusions of this study provide a valuable perspective for understanding the conditions under which decentralization theory holds, while also offering rigorous empirical evidence for government agencies to design more targeted decentralization policies.
  • 详情 Law and Algorithm-Managed Firms
    Recent technological advancements have enabled the emergence of business organizations fully managed by algorithms, such as decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) or through artificial intelligence (AI), as observed in China’s online food delivery sector. These organizations are collectively referred to as algorithm-managed firms (AMFs). Given machines’ capabilities in data collection and analysis, human directors are increasingly being replaced by algorithms or AI in specific sectors. This article contends that algorithms can effectively take over human directors’ managerial, monitoring, and mediating roles. The diminishing role of human directors raises certain concerns of stakeholder protection. Unlike human directors, algorithm directors or managers would not consider stakeholders’ interests unless clearly instructed to do so. However, the algorithm supplier and the AMFs may lack the incentives to fully consider stakeholders because they do not always internalize the social costs. To address the challenges of AMFs, policymakers need to consider different regulation strategies. First, they must choose between command-and-control regulations and target-based regulations. Command-and-control regulations often do not work well because regulators lack enough information or control over complex algorithms. Instead of setting detailed technical rules, policymakers should adopt target-based regulations that let the algorithm balance various interests and regulate its own operations. Second, policymakers should decide between entity-based and algorithm-based regulations. Algorithm-based regulation is more suitable because it prevents companies from passing costs onto society. The state could consider regulating the composition of the board of directors of the algorithm supplier to ensure that they incorporate the concerns of stakeholders’ interests in the development of the algorithm. Additionally, corporate law doctrines that protect creditors and other stakeholders, such as piercing the corporate veil and limiting liability for corporate torts, must be revisited and modified because their foundational assumptions no longer align with the realities of AMFs.
  • 详情 Exploring the Cost of Carry in Chinese Energy Futures: Does it Interact with the Energy Stock Market?
    The increasing institutional participation and deepening integration of physical trading and financial operations in commodity markets have elevated the interconnectedness of energy futures and equity markets to prominence in both scholarly discourse and industry analysis. Employing the Nelson-Siegel framework and Fama-French factor model, this study examines the dynamic relationships between energy futures holding cost variations and equity returns across coal and oil sectors. Our analysis yields three principal findings: First, the Fama-French three-factor model exhibits robust explanatory power in China's energy sector equity market, revealing significant statistical relationships between holding cost curve parameters—level, slope, and curvature—and industry excess returns. Second, holding cost variations manifest substantial heterogeneity in their impact on stock returns across coal and oil sectors. Third, carrying cost components demonstrate dominance over shock transmission effects in explaining industry stock return volatility, indicating complex, asymmetric interaction mechanisms between futures and equity markets. Drawing from these empirical results, we advance targeted policy prescriptions addressing futures market architecture and financial stability.
  • 详情 What's New this Time? The Market Reaction of China to Trump's Tariff Policy
    We investigate the stock market reaction in China to Trump’s tariff policy announcement on April 2, 2025. We find that the tariff policy reduced stock prices of Chinese firms except those in the agricultural sector. Large-cap stocks, value stocks, stocks of high profitability firms, and stocks of state-owned enterprises experienced smaller negative impacts. Stocks with higher institutional holdings by mutual funds and Social Security Funds exhibited higher resilience, possibly due to these investors' superior capability in selecting stocks and forecasting trade war risks. In contrast, stocks held by Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) did not exhibit such resilience.
  • 详情 Optimizing Tourism Resource Allocation Efficiency and Pathways to High-Quality Development in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
    In the context of digital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a pivotal driver for enhancing tourism resource allocation efficiency and promoting the high-quality development of the tourism industry. Grounded in the Technology–Organization–Environment (TOE) framework, this study constructs a multidimensional indicator system by integrating heterogeneous data sources, including Baidu search indices, corporate annual reports, and policy documents. Using a balanced panel dataset covering 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2015 to 2023, we empirically examine the mechanisms through which AI penetration affects the efficiency of tourism resource allocation. The super-efficiency SBM-DEA model is employed to measure allocation efficiency, while the spatial Durbin model (SDM) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) are used to identify spatial spillover effects and regional heterogeneity. Furthermore, tourist satisfaction is quantified using a natural language processing (NLP)-based sentiment index derived from online reviews. The results indicate that AI penetration significantly improves tourism resource allocation efficiency, with stronger effects observed in regions with advanced technological infrastructure. Smart tourism pilot policies demonstrate significant spatial spillover effects, positively influencing scenic areas within a 100-kilometer radius. However, diminishing marginal returns are evident, highlighting capacity absorption thresholds and institutional constraints. Based on the empirical findings, the study proposes targeted policy recommendations, including the establishment of provincial tourism data hubs, promotion of AI toolkit systems, enhancement of scenic area evaluation mechanisms, and reinforcement of collaborative governance between government and enterprises. These insights aim to provide both theoretical and practical guidance for the intelligent transformation and coordinated regional development of China’s tourism industry.
  • 详情 How does digital transformation enhance competitive advantage? An Empirical Study on Enterprises in Northwest China Based on PLS-SEM
    The northwest region of China faces many practical challenges, and its digital economy lags behind other areas of China. Digital transformation is a new source of competitive advantage in the digital economy era, which can help northwest enterprises rebuild their competitive advantage in the digital age, accelerate the development of the digital economy in the northwest region, bridge the digital gap between the East and the West, and promote the high-quality development of the national digital economy. In this study, the PLS-SEM method is used to collect data from 172 enterprises across five provinces in northwest China, to deeply analyze the mechanism and path through which digital transformation reshapes enterprise competitive advantage, identify the key sticking point hindering digital transformation in northwest China, and then propose more targeted strategic suggestions. It is found that the resource base of enterprises in northwest China is generally weak, making it difficult to deliver direct competitive advantage; existing enterprise resources can provide basic conditions for digital transformation and resource-orchestration capability; although digital transformation cannot directly create competitive performance, it can indirectly deliver competitive advantage by positively affecting resource-orchestration capability; resource-orchestration capability directly and significantly affects enterprise competitive performance and is the core competency for enterprises to build digital resilience.
  • 详情 Fintech Financial Accelerator: Evidence from a Social Media Field Experiment in China *
    We conduct a field experiment in China, o↵ering small business owners a conditional social media advertising subsidy. Beyond boosting business revenue and employment, the inter-vention significantly increases access to fintech credit: treated firms are more likely to open online stores and obtain online loans, while bank credit remains una↵ected. Our findings reveal a “fintech accelerator” mechanism—digital marketing drives sales growth that directly improves firms’ eligibility for fintech lending—demonstrating how targeted digital interven-tions can enhance financial inclusion and reshape credit allocation for small businesses.
  • 详情 Hedge Fund Shadow Trading: Evidence from Corporate Bankruptcies
    Serving on the official unsecured creditors' committee (UCC) of a bankrupt firm provides hedge funds with access to material nonpublic information (MNPI), which can facilitate their informed trading across firms and asset markets. We find that hedge funds increase equity turnover and execute more large trades in the quarters following UCC membership. In contrast, hedge funds do not exhibit such trading behavior after accessing public information about bankrupt firms or holding the bankrupt firm's debt without committee involvement. Importantly, these large trades often target firms with close economic ties to the bankrupt entity. Returns from these MNPI-driven trades are substantial.
  • 详情 Regulatory Shocks as Revealing Devices: Evidence from Smoking Bans and Corporate Bonds
    I study whether workplace smoking bans change how bond investors assess firm risk. Using staggered state adoption across U.S.\ states from 2002 to 2012 and a heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences design, I find that smoking bans increase six-month cumulative abnormal bond returns by about 90 basis points. The average effect is only the starting point: the response is much larger for speculative-grade issuers and firms with low interest coverage, indicating that investors reprice the policy where downside operating risk matters most for debt values. Mechanism tests point most clearly to improved operating performance and lower worker turnover, while broader financial-constraint, liquidity, and duration channels remain close to zero. Alternative estimators, placebo diagnostics, and geographic spillover checks all support the interpretation that workplace smoking bans trigger targeted credit-risk reassessment rather than a generic regional shock. My findings connect public-health regulation to capital-market outcomes and show how non-financial policy shocks can reveal economically meaningful information about corporate credit risk.