Treasury futures

  • 详情 Price Discovery in the Round-the-Clock U.S. Treasury Market
    We evaluate the efficacy of price discovery in the round-the-clock U.S. Treasury market. Using a comprehensive intraday database, we explore informational role of trades over the 24-hour day. We find that information asymmetry is generally highest in the preopen period and lowest in the postclose period. Information asymmetry in the overnight period is comparable to that in the regular trading period. However, on days with macroeconomic announcements, information asymmetry peaks shortly after the news release at 8:30. Moreover, information asymmetry is higher on Monday morning and higher immediately before than after the open of U.S. Treasury futures trading. Although volume is low after hours and trading cost is relatively high, overnight trading generates significant price discovery. Results suggest that overnight trading activity is an important part of the Treasury price discovery process.
  • 详情 Convexity-Based Hedging with Treasury Futures: A Model and Numerical Analysis
    Traditional hedge of bond duration and convexity are incorrect. We derive correct hedge ratios by capturing the neglected volatility linkage between Treasury futures and cheapest-to-deliver Treasuries. Our hedge-ratio equations specify each hedge instrument’s contribution against short-term spot and forward rate exposures. Our numerical analysis indicates that traditional hedge substantially overhedges. The relative overhedge is especially large in hedging high coupon bond when the hedge horizon is long, the term structure is steep, or the cheapest-to-deliver is a high coupon Treasury. The results are robust to various maturity of bond and the cheapest-to-deliver Treasuries.