The development of industrialization runs through the history of the People’s Republic of China. In the early years of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the Soviet Union provided important help for China’s industrialization construction, capital lending, talent training and technology transfer. By analyzing the proportion of China’s industrial output value in the total output value and the output of major industrial products during the period of the Soviet Union, it shows that the assistance of the Soviet Union had a very positive role in promoting the realization of ChinaIs industrialization, and helped China to lay the foundation of industrialization. In addition, some problems in accepting the Soviet Union’s aid to China also deserve our attention when promoting the new industrialization. The research explores both the internal and external factors that led to China’s acceptance of Soviet assistance. The study examines the political, economic, and historical contexts that created a favorable environment for such aid, analyzes the various modes and scales of the assistance implemented, and presents statistical data that underscore the transformative social and economic achievements derived from this partnership. Furthermore, the paper highlights the contributions of quantitative analyses in understanding the aid’s impact, discusses the experiences and lessons learned from the Soviet aid period, and assesses the evolving dynamics of Sino—Soviet relations, particularly the gradual divergence in economic development models. The findings shed light on how Soviet aid laid the groundwork for China’s industrialization while also foreshadowing future ideological and developmental separations.

This paper examines whether subjective macroeconomic expectations predict equity risk premia in China. Using professional macro forecasts from the Wind database over 2011- 2023, we construct a composite macroeconomic expectation index via PLS. We find that the index significantly and positively predicts future equity premia both in-sample and out-ofsample, implying a countercyclical equity premium. The predictive power is robust to a wide range of macro-financial controls and delivers economically meaningful gains in portfolio allocation. Further analysis shows that controlling for forecast errors does not attenuate predictability, and the subjective index largely subsumes the information in realized macro variables, suggesting that it captures forward-looking macroeconomic conditions rather than belief bias. Cross-sectional and long-horizon results reinforce this interpretation.

The robustness of the securities market is a necessary condition for ensuring the stable operation of the financial market, and stock price fluctuations have always been a major concern for academia and investors. One of the main influencing factors of stock price fluctuations is macroeconomic monetary policy. As one of the important control tools of macroeconomic monetary policy, the impact of benchmark interest rates on stock price fluctuations cannot be ignored. This paper takes Chinese A-shares as the research object, analyzes the impact of benchmark interest rate changes on stock price fluctuations, and further introduces investor sentiment as a mediating variable to analyze its role in the transmission process of monetary policy. This paper selects monthly data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2018 to 2024 and conducts empirical tests by constructing direct effect models and mediating effect models. The research results show that: First, benchmark interest rates have a significant negative impact on stock price fluctuations; second, benchmark interest rates can indirectly affect stock price fluctuations by influencing investor sentiment, with investor sentiment playing a partial mediating role. The research conclusions of this paper help to deepen the understanding of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy's impact on securities prices, and provide micro-evidence for monetary policymakers to assess the impact of policy adjustments on capital market stability, while also providing a reference for investors to understand the risk characteristics of the securities market under changes in the interest rate environment.

We construct a text-based measure of war-related diplomatic sentiment from 154,185 foreignministry communications across the 15 largest world economies. The daily index tracks military escalations and ceasefires, varies across countries, and predicts newspaper-based geopolitical risk more than the reverse. Adverse Chinese rhetoric foreshadows stronger southbound reallocation into Hong Kong equities and weaker Stock Connect flows; a one-unit decline shifts daily flows by $42.4 million towards outflows, operating through a relative-price channel widening the AH premium rather than onshore declines. In monthly cross-country analyses, only the U.S. shows safe-haven behavior; adverse rhetoric raises Chinese and U.S. trading volume and U.S. volatility.

We propose a clustering-based dimensionality reduction approach to minimum variance portfolio optimization. Rather than constructing the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio over the full stock universe, which is subject to severe estimation error due to high-dimensionality, we apply Ward’s hierarchical clustering to partition stocks into groups of similarly behaving assets, select one representative per cluster, and optimize on the resulting low-dimensional sub-universe. We show theoretically that clustering preserves the factor structure and yields a better-conditioned covariance matrix than random selection. Empirically, on the Chinese A-share market, the proposed strategies substantially outperform the full-universe benchmark, with gains robust to transaction costs.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission is allowing firms to use externally financed funds for share repurchases, a recent measure to enable listed companies address valuation pressures and protect investors; however, its implications for corporate marketing decisions remain unclear. Using an event sample of Chinese listed firms that conducted open-market repurchases between 2009 and 2024, this study empirically examines how this market activity financed by different sources influence marketing decisions and explores the underlying mechanisms. The findings show that compared with firms using internal cash for repurchases, those relying on debt financing are inclined to resist myopic marketing decisions, and this negative relationship is pronounced under high analyst coverage and when privately owned listed firms are controlled by family entrepreneurs. These results remain robust after replacing the dependent variables and applying propensity score matching. Overall, this study shows that debt financing to support share repurchases has a long-term beneficial governance impact as it improves earnings quality and protects investor interests, and offers a new perspective on the relationship between financing-based repurchases and marketing myopia, and provides useful policy insights for evaluating the effectiveness of China’s refinancing regulations related to share repurchases, while guiding further refinement.

Whether risk aversion is time varying and countercyclical is central to modern asset pricing, yet evidence remains limited and is based mainly on experimental, survey, or aggregate stock market data. We provide individual-level evidence from 10 million Chinese auto insurance contracts from 2011 to 2017, estimating policyholders’ risk aversion from deductible choices. We find that risk aversion is time varying and countercyclical. The estimates are negatively related to lottery and stock trading, positively related to insurance sales and bond trading, and vary with psychological factors, including seasonal mood, “zodiac year,” and calendar events.

This paper constructs a call pressure index (CP) from China's SSE 50 ETF option market and finds a robust U-shaped nonlinear predictability for directional option returns as measured by log returns. The effect reflects that extreme call pressures—whether unusually low (reversal) or high (momentum)—contain information, while moderate levels are dominated by noise trading. Robustness checks using delta-hedged returns confirm that predictability stems primarily from directional exposure rather than volatility dynamics. The predictability is stronger in high-volatility and down-market states and survives controlling for implied skewness, variance risk premium, and other common predictors. A simple timing strategy based on rolling-window forecasts achieves a Sharpe ratio of 0.97, which further increases to 2.43 after applying a prediction threshold. A parsimonious volume-based indicator captures unique predictive information beyond complex proxies, offering a feasible path for emerging markets lacking proprietary order flow data.

The Full Guaranteed Purchase System began to replace the subsidy system as the core policy for promoting renewable energy integration, designating grid companies as the sole entity responsible for the physical integration of renewable energy. Meanwhile, the Tradable Green Certificates system provides environmental benefits for renewable power generators through market mechanisms. Therefore, exploring the strategic choices of various entities under the dual policy interventions, and uncovering the mechanisms for realizing electricity energy value and green value under different integration models, is of great significance for advancing China’s renewable energy integration. Based on China’s actual conditions, this study integrates the features of both policies and constructs a three-party evolutionary game model involving government, power generators, and grid enterprises to simulate their interactions and identify key factors influencing strategic choices. The results show that active government regulation effectively encourages positive strategies from both generators and grid companies, and that active power integration by grid companies further promotes green power generation. A “stepwise complementary” relationship exists among reputation gains, reputation losses, and regulatory costs: higher reputation gains can offset decision-making resistance arising from increased regulatory costs. Green power generation costs and innovation costs have significant negative effects on strategic choices, while the guaranteed purchase price has a significant positive effect on generators’ active strategies. The penalty parameter plays a key positive role in grid companies’ active strategies, and the guaranteed purchase price significantly influences their active integration behavior. This paper provides recommendations for motivating all entities actively participate in the consumption process.

Bankruptcy abuse prevention has been criticized for increasing foreclosure rates, imposing negative impacts on housing markets, and aggravating the financial crisis. By contrast, this paper documents that bankruptcy abuse prevention reduces household debt overhang, a phenomenon harmful to home values and housing markets. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, we find that households in recourse states increased their home improvement and maintenance expenditures after the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act, a period during which the households paid considerable attention to the downside risk of the housing market, and that the effects vary by home equity level. The results remain unchanged with alternative specifications and cannot be explained by credit changes, judicial and nonjudicial foreclosures, homestead exemption, house sales, or heterogeneous expectations. Last but not least, we use entropy balancing to eliminate the differences between the treatment and control groups and get similar results. 预防破产滥用的政策被认为推高止赎率、对住房市场造成负面影响以及加剧金融危机而饱受批评。与之相反，本文证明破产滥用预防能够缓解家庭债务积压（debt overhang）—— 而债务积压恰恰是一种损害房屋价值与住房市场的现象。采用双重差分（DID）分析，我们发现：在《破产滥用预防与消费者保护法案》（BAPCPA）实施后，**追索权州（recourse states）**的家庭增加了住房改善与维护支出；该时期家庭对住房市场的下行风险高度关注，且上述效应因房屋净值水平的不同而存在异质性。在多种替代设定下结果依然稳健，且不能被信贷变化、司法与非司法止赎、宅基地豁免、房屋销售或异质性预期所解释。最后，我们使用熵平衡（entropy balancing）方法消除处理组与控制组之间的差异，同样得到了一致的结果。