causality

  • 详情 The Safety Shield: How Classified Boards Benefit Rank-and-File Employees
    This study examines how classified boards affect workplace safety, an important dimension of employee welfare. Using comprehensive establishment-level injury data from the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration and a novel classified board database, we document that firms with classified boards experience 12-13% lower workplace injury rates. To establish causality, we employ instrumental variable and difference-in-differences approaches exploiting staggered board declassifications. The safety benefits of classified boards operate through increased safety expenditures, reduced employee workloads, and enhanced external monitoring through analyst coverage. These effects are strongest in financially constrained firms and those with weaker monitoring mechanisms. Our findings support the bonding hypothesis that anti-takeover provisions facilitate long-term value creation by protecting stakeholder relationships and provide novel evidence that classified boards benefit rank-and-file employees, not just executives and major customers. The results reveal an important mechanism through which governance structures impact employee welfare and challenge the conventional view that classified boards primarily serve managerial entrenchment.
  • 详情 Internet tradition and tourism development: A causality analysis on BRI listed economies
    The study aims to explain the economic impact of Internet implication in tourism sector by taking sample of mega project listed countries (which provide big pitch to boost tourism business). Our work find the volatility cause of tourism revenue at country i, by examining the inbound tourist expenditures as a factor of technological infrastructure. We deploy data ranging from 1990 to 2017 and uses error correction model as representative of Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) model after addressing diagnostic tests (for data reliability concern). We found long- and short-run association between tourism expenditure and information and communication technology (ICT) proxies in case of developed economies, while only short-run association in underdeveloped countries. The startling scenario about underdeveloped economies are also confirmed by one-way causation in our analysis. After sensitive analysis at each slot, the study concludes that tourism revenue is streaming low across those boundaries where tourists a
  • 详情 Passive investors, active moves: ETFs IPO participation in China
    We examine a unique phenomenon among exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the Chinese stock market, finding that ETFs pervasively participate in initial public offerings (IPOs) to profit from underpricing. The ETF IPO participation passes primary market benefits to retail investors, providing benefits from hard-to-reach investment opportunities. These active moves showing ETFs are not entirely passive highlight the gains of the active management. However, we observe that this activity leads to increased non-fundamental volatility and short-term return reversals, as well as decreased investment-q sensitivity among ETF member stocks, presenting a negative externality. Using a policy shock as the quasi-natural experiment, we establish the causality of these effects, underscoring the dual nature of ETFs active management.
  • 详情 Does rural banking competition affect agricultural productivity? Causal evidence from China
    Rural banking competition may promote or hinder agricultural total factor productivity (TFP). We analyze a novel dataset on all commercial bank branches in rural China, combined with measures of productivity based on stochastic frontier analysis. To identify causality, we use: 1) an instrumental variable approach based on the administrative division of banks, and 2) a propensity score matching difference-in-difference approach exploiting banking de-regulations in 2009. Both methods reveal that competition has a positive impact on TFP. A heterogeneity analysis finds that the effect is primarily significant along the Beijing-Kowloon railway and its East side. Technology adoption is the typical channel through which lending is hypothesized to impact TFP. We find that the positive effect of competition is larger in areas with greater technology use, but we find an insignificant direct impact of concentration on technology adoption, suggesting the channels of effect may be more complex than previously thought.
  • 详情 Does Analyst Coverage Influence the Effect of Institutional Site Visits on Corporate Innovation? From the Perspective of Information Exploration
    By exploring additional information, both institutional investors’ site visits and analyst coverage can stimulate corporate innovation. However, because analysts are more specialized in information exploration, their existence should weaken the effect of institutional site visits on corporate innovation. By using Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2013, we investigate the effect of institutional site visits on firms’ innovation output, with a focus on its heterogeneity from analyst coverage. We use patent citation records to accurately measure firms’ innovation output. We find that institutional site visits significantly enhance corporate innovation among firms without analyst coverage, among firms with low analyst coverage, while this effect turns insignificant among firms with high analyst coverage. IV estimations confirm the causality. Additionally, we find that our major results exist only among non-SOEs, firms with a lower quality of information disclosure, firms with lower liquidity, and newly listed firms. Overall, this paper helps better understand the interaction between institutional site visits and analyst coverage regarding information exploration.
  • 详情 When Local and Foreign Investors Meet Chinese Government's Risk Perception About Covid-19
    This paper examines the different responses of local and foreign investors to host government risk perceptions in the context of extreme events. We develop COVID-19 attention indices that capture attention related to COVID-19 according to China Central Television (CCTV) news program and further construct the government’s risk perception (GRPC) measure about COVID-19. Given the cross-listed AH-shares in China, we find that GRPC caused the extreme movement of stock markets by applying the multi-quantile VaR Granger causality approach. The results show that the reaction of cross-listed stocks in the A-share market is more inflexible than that in the H-share market during the outbreak period of the pandemic, foreign investors follow GRPC as a weather vane than local investors, and both types of investors are more concerned about the pessimism of GRPC. In the period of epidemic normalization, local and foreign investors prefer the optimistic attitude conveyed by the Chinese government.
  • 详情 Monitoring Fintech Firms: Evidence from the Collapse of Peer-to-Peer Lending Platforms
    In recent years, numerous Chinese peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms have collapsed, prompting us to investigate the regulation and monitoring of the fintech industry. Using a unique dataset of P2P lending platforms in China, we examine the effect of government monitoring on platform collapses. Exploiting platforms’ locational proximity to regulatory offices as a proxy for government monitoring, we show that greater geographical distance results in a higher likelihood of platform collapse. Specifically, for every 10% increase in the driving distance from the platform to the local regulatory office, the likelihood of collapse increases by 10.2%. To establish causality, we conduct a differencein-differencesanalysis that exploits two exogenous shocks: government office relocation and subway station openings. We further explore two underlying channels: the information channel through which greater regulatory distance reduces the likelihood of regulators’ onsite visits and the resource constraint channel, through which greater regulatory distance significantly increases the local regulatory office’s monitoring costs. Overall, this study highlights the importance of onsite regulatory monitoring to ensure the viability of online lending platforms.
  • 详情 Common Ownership and Knowledge Spillovers in Developing Countries: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms
    Common institutional ownership can enhance knowledge spillovers by increasing portfolio firms’ awareness about each other’s innovation. By investigating listed electronic hardware firms in China for 2000-2016, we find that when common ownership by mutual funds is higher between a firm pair, it is more likely that these two firms cite each other’s patents. To confirm causality, we show that even the exogenous increase in firms’ common ownership following their inclusion into the stock index still positively influences the citing likelihood. We also find that such citations are taken place in a timely manner. Additionally, this positive effect is robust when the effects of overlapping board members and common ownership by other types of institutional investors are controlled for. This effect is more pronounced among nonneighboring firms, when non-neighboring firms are close to their common owners, when common owners hold shares longer, and when firms’ executives have lower incentive to communicate (i.e., SOEs). Last, we find that common ownership by mutual funds also enhances knowledge spillovers through third-party patents. This paper deepens the understanding of knowledge spillovers among firms in developing countries.
  • 详情 Analysis of Tail Risk Contagion Among Industry Sectors in the Chinese Stock Market During the Covid-19 Pandemic
    The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted substantial impacts on global financial markets and the economy. This study explores the impact of two pandemic outbreaks in China on its stock market industries. It employs the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model to compute tail risks across 16 selected industry sectors. Additionally, risk correlation networks are constructed to illustrate the risk correlations among industry sectors during different phases of the two outbreaks. Furthermore, risk contagion networks are built based on the Granger causality test to examine the similarities and differences in the contagion mechanisms between the two outbreaks. The findings of this study show that (i) the two outbreaks of COVID-19 have resulted in tail risks for most industries in the Chinese stock market. (ii) The risk correlation network became more compact because of both outbreaks. The impact of the second outbreak on the network was less severe than that of the first outbreak. (iii) During the first outbreak of COVID-19, the financial industry was the primary source of risk output; during the second outbreak, the concentrated outbreak in Shanghai led the industries closely related to the city's economy and trade to become the most significant risk industries. These findings have practical implications for researchers and decision-makers in terms of risk contagion among stock market industries under major public emergencies.
  • 详情 Does analyst coverage affect corporate ESG performance? Evidence from China
    In the new wave of sustainable finance, firms are under increasing pressure from stakeholders to engage in ESG activities, among which the role of financial analysts is a key driving factors of corporate sustainability. This paper investigates the effect of analyst coverage on corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance. Using the dataset of listed firms in China from 2009 to 2020, we find that analyst coverage significantly improves the target firm’s ESG scores. We validate three non-mutually exclusive channels through which analyst coverage encourages ESG engagement: (1) encourage firms’ awareness on ESG issues via ESG-oriented information production; (2) alleviate ESG undervaluation and strengthen the financial relevance of ESG performance; (3) mitigate financial constraints to support corporate ESG activities. We establish causality with an instrumental variable estimation and a difference-in-differences approach. Our findings highlight the information intermediary role of financial analysts in driving corporate sustainability.