economic

  • 详情 Systematic Information Asymmetry and Equity Costs of Capital
    We examine the pricing ofsystematic information asymmetry, induced by Chinese gov-ernment intervention, in the cross-section of stock returns. Using market-wide order im-balance as a proxy for systematic information, we observe a strong correlation betweenthe standard deviation of market-wide order imbalance and economic policy uncertainty.Furthermore, we find a significant positive relationship between the sensitivity of stocks tosystematic information asymmetry (OIBeta) and their future returns. The average monthlyreturn spread between high- and low-OIBeta portfolios ranges from 1.30% to 1.77%, andthis result remains robust after controlling for traditional risk factors. Our results providesubstantial evidence that the pricing of OIBeta is driven by systematic information asym-metry rather than alternative explanatory channels.
  • 详情 The Transformative Role of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data in Banking
    This paper examines how the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and big data affects banking operations, emphasizing the crucial role of big data in unlocking the full potential of AI. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset of over 4.5 million loans issued by a leading commercial bank in China and exploiting a policy mandate as an exogenous shock, we document significant improvements in credit rating accuracy and loan performance, particularly for SMEs. Specifically, the adoption of AI and big data reduces the rate of unclassified credit ratings by 40.1% and decreases loan default rates by 29.6%. Analyzing the bank's phased implementation, we find that integrating big data analytics substantially enhances the effectiveness of AI models. We further identify significant heterogeneity: improvements are especially pronounced for unsecured and short-term loans, borrowers with incomplete financial records, first-time borrowers, long-distance borrowers, and firms located in economically underdeveloped or linguistically diverse regions. Our findings underscore the powerful synergy between big data and AI, demonstrating their joint capability to alleviate information frictions and enhance credit allocation efficiency.
  • 详情 Carbon financial system construction under the background of dual-carbon targets: current situation, problems and suggestions
    Under the guidance of the dual-carbon target, the development of the carbon financial system is of great significance to compensate for the gap between green and low-carbon investment. Considering the current state of the development of carbon financial system, China has initially formed a carbon financial system, including participants, carbon financial products and macro and micro operation structures, but the system is still in the initial development stage. Given the current restrictions on the development of carbon finance, it can be seen that there are still problems such as unreasonable economic structure, insufficient market construction, single product category, low utilization rate and urgent construction of relevant judicial guarantee system. Therefore, the system should be improved at the economic level and the legal level. The economic level includes adjusting the layout of economic development structure, strengthening the construction of market infrastructure, encouraging the diversification of carbon financial products and strengthening publicity and education promotion strategies. The legal level includes improving the top-level design, formulating judicial interpretation to promote carbon financial trading, promoting commercial law amendment, and promoting the linkage mechanism between specialized environmental justice and carbon finance and other safeguard measures. Finally, improving the carbon finance system is required to promote and protect the orderly development of carbon finance. To promote the reform of the pattern of economic development, the concept of ecological and environmental protection in the financial sector needs to be implemented to form an overall pattern of pollution reduction, carbon reduction and synergistic efficiency improvement.
  • 详情 Can Social Credit System Construction Improve Enterprise Innovation?
    Enterprise innovation is a hot topic in current academic research. Taking the demonstration city of social credit system construction implemented in China as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper investigates whether the construction of social credit system can improve enterprise innovation. The study finds that the construction of social credit system effectively enhances enterprise innovation. Mechanism test shows that the construction of social credit system escalates the scale and duration of enterprise loans, thereby fostering enterprise innovation. These findings present insights that the pivotal role of informal institutions, such as the social credit system, in facilitating the upgrading of industrial structures and augmenting the quality of economic development.
  • 详情 FinTech Platforms and Asymmetric Network Effects: Theory and Evidence from Marketplace Lending
    We conceptually identify and empirically verify the features distinguishing FinTech platforms from non-financial platforms using marketplace lending data. Specifically, we highlight three key features: (i) Long-term contracts introducing default risk at both the individual and platform levels; (ii) Lenders’ investment diversification to mitigate individual default risk; (iii) Platform-level default risk leading to greater asymmetric user stickiness and rendering platform-level cross-side network effects (p-CNEs), a novel metric we introduce, crucial for adoption and market dynamics. We incorporate these features into a model of two-sided FinTech platform with potential failures and endogenous participation and fee structures. Our model predicts lenders’ single-homing, occasional lower fees for borrowers, asymmetric p-CNEs, and the predictive power of lenders’ p-CNEs in forecasting platform failures. Empirical evidence from China’s marketplace lending industry, characterized by frequent market entries, exits, and strong network externalities, corroborates our theoretical predictions. We find that lenders’ p-CNEs are systematically lower on declining or well-established platforms compared to those on emerging or rapidly growing platforms. Furthermore, lenders’ p-CNEs serve as an early indicator of platform survival likelihood, even at the initial stages of market development. Our findings provide novel economic insights into the functioning of multi-sided FinTech platforms, offering valuable implications for both industry practitioners and financial regulators.
  • 详情 Unraveling the Impact of Social Media Curation Algorithms through Agent-based Simulation Approach: Insights from Stock Market Dynamics
    This paper investigates the impact of curation algorithms through the lens of stock market dynamics. By innovatively incorporating the dynamic interactions between social media platforms, investors, and stock markets, we construct the Social-Media-augmented Artificial Stock marKet (SMASK) model under the agent-based computational framework. Our findings reveal that curation algorithms, by promoting polarized and emotionally charged content, exacerbate behavioral biases among retail investors, leading to worsened stock market quality and investor wealth levels. Moreover, through our experiment on the debated topic of algorithmic regulation, we find limiting the intensity of these algorithms may reduce unnecessary trading behaviors, mitigates investor biases, and enhances overall market quality. This study provides new insights into the dual role of curation algorithms in both business ethics and public interest, offering a quantitative approach to understanding their broader social and economic impact.
  • 详情 Riding on the green bandwagon: Supply chain network centrality and corporate greenwashing behavior
    This study empirically investigates the impact of supply chain network centrality on corporate greenwashing behavior. By constructing supply chain networks of Chinese A-share listed companies, we find a strong positive correlation between supply chain network centrality and corporate greenwashing behavior, with an increase of approximately 6.20%. The paper identifies the underlying mechanism as the contagion of the green bandwagon effect within the supply chain, which is observed specifically in the downstream network, particularly among corporate-customers. Additionally, we observe that the positive effects are more pronounced in companies with lower information asymmetry, as well as in labor- and capital-intensive industries and regions with disadvantaged economic conditions. These findings offer important insights for improving corporate environmental responsibility and curbing greenwashing practices.
  • 详情 Risk Spillovers between Industries - New Evidence from Two Periods of High and Low Volatility
    This paper develops a network to analyze inter-industry risk spillovers during high and low volatility periods. Our findings indicate that China's Industrials and Consumer Discretionary exhibit the greatest levels of spillovers in both high and low volatility states. Notably, our results demonstrate the "event-driven" character of structural changes to the network during periods of pronounced risk events. At the same time, the economic and financial network exhibits clear "small world" characteristics. Additionally, in the high volatility stage, the inter-industry risk contagion network becomes more complex, featuring greater connectivity and direct contagion paths. Furthermore, concerning the spillover connection between finance and the real sector, the real economy serves as a net exporter of risk. The study's findings can assist government agencies in preventing risk contagion between the financial market and the real economy. The empirical evidence and policy lessons provide valuable insights for effective risk management.
  • 详情 An Option Pricing Model Based on a Green Bond Price Index
    In the face of severe climate change, researchers have looked for assistance from financial instruments. They have examined how to hedge the risks of these instruments created by market fluctuations through various green financial derivatives, including green bonds (i.e., fixed-income financial instruments designed to support an environmental goal). In this study, we designed a green bond index option contract. First, we combined an autoregressive moving-average model (AMRA) with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model (GARCH) to predict the green bond index. Next, we established a fractional Brownian motion option pricing model with temporally variable volatility. We used this approach to predict the closing price of the China Bond–Green Bond Index from 3 January 2017 to 30 December 2021 as an empirical analysis. The trend of the index predicted by the ARMA–GARCH model was consistent with the actual trend and predictions of actual prices were highly accurate. The modified fractional Brownian motion option pricing model improved the pricing accuracy. Our results provide a policy reference for the development of a green financial derivatives market, and can accelerate the transformation of markets towards a more sustainable economic development model.
  • 详情 Centralized customers hurting employees? Customer concentration and enterprise employment
    Based on the sample data of Chinese listed companies, this paper finds that the increase in customer concentration significantly reduces the level of enterprise employment. The research results are robust to a series of tests. Further analysis shows that the increase of financing constraints, the increase of enterprise risk and the decrease of profitability are the mechanism of customer concentration affecting enterprise employment. In addition, the negative correlation between customer concentration and enterprise employment is stronger for enterprises with small size, fierce industry competition, and increasing economic policy uncertainty.