economy growth

  • 详情 Digital Economy, CO2 Emissions and China’s Environmental Sustainable Development— An analysis based on TVP-VAR model
    The growth of digital economy and sustainable development of environment are important issues related to high-quality economic development in the new era. This paper selects the yearly data of China from 2007 to 2021, constructs the China’s Environmental Performance Index, and establishes the TVP-VAR model to investigate the dynamic time-varying relationship between digital economy growth, CO2 emissions, and sustainable development of environment in short, medium and long-term. The results show that the relationships among them are time-varying at all terms. Specifically, in first, the growth of the digital economy exerts a negative impulse on CO2 emissions, and the short-term effect is greater than the long-term effect. Secondly, there exist positive impulses between the growth of the digital economy and sustainable development of environment. And CO2 emissions has a negative impact on sustainable development of environment. Thirdly, they have same influencing tendencies at certain time points, but different impact degrees. The impact of the digital economy development on environmental sustainable development has significantly increased since the COVID-19 outbreak. Therefore, the development of digital economy can effectively reduce CO2 emissions and promote the sustainable development of the environment.
  • 详情 Financial Intermediation Development and Economic Fluctuation in China: Evidence Based on Time Series
    Using annual time series data (1978-2010), the present paper examines the nexus between financial intermediation development and economic fluctuation in China. The time series properties of the data are analyzed by bounds testing approach, ARDL model and vector error-correction model. The empirical results show that, there is long-term negative equilibrium relationship between financial intermediation development and economic fluctuation margin. However, although the short-term dynamics of volatility in economy growth can make adjustments in light of the long-term equilibrium relationship, it is not enough for economic fluctuation margin to revert to the equilibrium only through the error correction mechanism. Meanwhile, using the Granger causality test based on error correction model, the present paper finds the empirical evidence to support unidirectional Granger causality from financial intermediation development to economic fluctuation margin.
  • 详情 房地产市场、银行信贷与经济增长――基于面板数据的经验研究
    内容提要: 本文针对近年来我国房地产市场价格持续攀升但市场需求不降反升、银行信贷资金迅速向房地产业集中以及房地产市场发展与经济增长的作用等问题,以全国和各省、市、自治区的面板数据,进行了实证分析。分析结果显示,我国房地产市场供给约束问题非常严重,尤其是考虑到居民收入增长因素后,房地产市场的供求矛盾十分突出;银行房地产开发贷款和个人住房贷款强有力地支撑了房地产市场的供求;房地产市场的发展也拉动了经济的增长,但这一作用没有我们想象的大。因此,目前我国针对房地产市场的宏观调控和各项监管措施,都应该从供求两方面出发,在金融等政策上要保持连续性,并加强制度建设,更好地发挥市场机制的作用。 Abstract: Recent years, with the rising price, the housing demands also rise quickly, which is strange to the common sense of economics. In addition, the relationship between banking sector and housing industry has become more and close, and the growth of housing industry pull the economic growth dramatically. Based on the panel data of the nation and provinces, we try an empirical study on the topics above. The empirical results show that at least in the nowadays China’s market, one of the most sever problem in the real estate market is the constraints of the housing supply compared to the demand if we consider the effects of the resid ents’income growth. Bank loans are maybe the most effective factor pulling the housing industry growth, both on the supply side and the demand. To our surprise, the effect of housing consumption on the economic growth is less than we have assumed, considering the cyclical changes of the economy. . So we draw the followed policy implications in the further macroeconomic managements: we must take the measures directly to both the supply and the demand sides, keep the policies’ continuity, strengthen the institutional progress and make the market mechanism more effective.