empirical evidence

  • 详情 Multitracking within a Multitasking Tournament: Evidence and Theory from China
    This paper studies how dividing candidates in a tournament into separate tracks with differentiated performance criteria affects incentives and aggregate outcomes. We exploit China’s Major Function Oriented Zoning plan, which assigns counties to devel-opment or conservation tracks, with the latter de-emphasizing growth indicators. Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences design, we find that prefectures introducing a con-servation track achieved higher aggregate economic performance despite relaxing growth-based evaluation for part of their subordinate counties. To explain this counterintuitive ef-fect, we develop a stylized Tullock contest model that highlights two institutional features: promotion opportunities remain open to officials in both tracks, and counties within the same prefecture continue to interact across tracks. The model further predicts an inverted U-shaped relationship between the size of the conservation track and overall performance, which is supported by empirical evidence.
  • 详情 Local Decentralization, Location Endowments, and County-Level Economic Development: Evidence from China's County-to-City Reform Policy
    The relationship between economic decentralization and regional economic growth has attracted wide academic attention. However, existing literature rarely explores the validity and applicability of decentralization theory from the perspective of location endowments. This study takes China’s county-to-city reform - a decentralization policy - as a point of entry to construct a decentralization model incorporating location endowments. Using county-level panel data from 1992 to 2009 and employing a difference-in-differences (DID) approach, the study evaluates the impact of county-to-city reform under the constraint of location endowments on county-level economic development. The findings reveal that the policy effects of local decentralization are constrained by location endowments. Specifically, in regions with poorer location endowments, county-to-city reform significantly inhibits local economic development. Indeed, mechanism analysis further indicates that in such disadvantaged regions, local decentralization under the county-to-city reform generates a “political resource curse” effect, which hinders economic growth through three channels such as distorted fiscal expenditure structures, corruption, and misallocation of land resources. The conclusions of this study provide a valuable perspective for understanding the conditions under which decentralization theory holds, while also offering rigorous empirical evidence for government agencies to design more targeted decentralization policies.
  • 详情 Adverse Selection and Overnight Returns: Information-Based Pricing Distortions Under China's "T+1" Trading
    Contrary to the U.S., Chinese stock markets exhibit negative overnight returns, which further decrease with information asymmetry. We demonstrate that China’s "T+1" trading rule, which prohibits same-day selling, exacerbates adverse selection for uninformed buyers by limiting them to react to post-trade information. Prices are hence initially discounted at opening and recovered by the market close, generating negative overnight returns that are inversely related to information asymmetry risks. Consistent with adverse selection, empirical evidence reveals lower overnight returns during market declines and high-volatility periods, with robust negative associations between overnight returns and information asymmetry proxied by ffrm size, analyst coverage, and earnings announcement proximity. A model is introduced to rationalize our findings. The framework also sheds light on China’s "opening return puzzle", the phenomenon that intraday price rises concentrate predominantly in the initial 30 minutes of trading, by showing how reduced adverse selection enables rapid price recovery during opening session.
  • 详情 ESG and Corporate Resilience: An Empirical Study of China A-share Market
    Against the backdrop of recurrent global crises, economic uncertainty, and mounting environmental and social pressures, corporate resilience—defined as a firm’s capability to withstand external systemic shocks—has emerged as a critical determinant of long-term sustainability. This study empirically exames the effect of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) performance on corporate resilience in China’s A-share market, using the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment to identify causal effects. The sample comprises 651 A-share listed firms, excluding financial institutions, real estate firms, and ST/*ST companies, over the period from January 20, 2020, when the pandemic was officially announced in China, to June 30, 2024. ESG performance is measured as the average of 2018–2019 ratings issued by three major domestic agencies, thereby capturing firms’ pre-shock conditions and mitigating concerns of reverse causality. Corporate resilience is evaluated along two dimensions: resistance, measured by the severity of losses in net income, revenue, and stock price, and recovery, measured by the time required for ROA, EBIT, stock price, and Tobin’s Q to return to pre-shock levels. To ensure the robustness of the findings, this study employs linear regression models with industry-clustered robust standard errors, an instrumental-variable approach using R&D intensity and analyst coverage as instruments, and a Cox accelerated failure time model to estimate recovery duration. The empirical results indicate that stronger pre-shock ESG performance significantly enhances corporate resistance and shortens recovery time. Mechanism analyses further reveal that ESG strengthens corporate resilience by improving total factor productivity, alleviating financing constraints, and enhancing corporate reputation. These findings remain robust to multicollinearity diagnostics and a range of additional robustness tests. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence of the value of ESG in strengthening corporate resilience and offers important implications for firms, policymakers, and investors.
  • 详情 Corporate Sustainability and Sustainable Investing’s Alpha: An Empirical Study of China A-share Market
    In view of the divergence of existing research results on the relationship between ESG and investment returns, this paper constructs an S-score metric, which comprehensively measures corporate sustainability performance. It further tests the applicability of a sustainability-based investment strategy using this metric in China's A-share market. Using Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares from May 2016 to April 2024 as the research sample, the S-score is constructed across five dimensions: Profitability, Growth Opportunities, Investment Efficiency, Risk Mitigation, and ESG Performance. The S-score is calculated using Z-score standardization and entropy weighted. Strategy effectiveness was tested through univariate grouping, bivariate grouping, and Fama-Macbeth regression, further examining strategy performance under varying market conditions, holding periods, and information environments. The study finds that the S-score demonstrates significant discriminative power for cross-sectional stock returns. The hedge portfolio based on this metric achieved an annualized excess return of 7.943% after adjusting for the China three-factor (CH-3) model. Its predictive power remains robust after controlling for variables such as market capitalization and book-to-market ratio, delivering significant positive returns across bull and bear markets, extreme pandemic conditions, and holding periods of up to eight years. From a behavioral finance perspective, this paper reveals that explanations such as the gradual diffusion of information and investors' limited attention span help elucidate the profitability of the S-score strategy. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of Sustainable Investing strategies in China's A-share market, indicating that ESG-integrated factor investing can optimize resource allocation. This research contributes empirical evidence on Sustainable Investing in emerging markets, providing insights for policy formulation and practical implementation while supporting the virtuous cycle between Sustainable Investing and long-termism.
  • 详情 Do ETFs Constrain Corporate Earnings Management? Evidence from China
    This paper examines the impact of Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) ownership on corporate earnings management. We find that ETF ownership is associated with a significant reduction in earnings management, and this result remains robust across a wide range of endogeneity tests and robustness checks. Further analyses reveal that ETFs exert a pronounced mitigating effect on sales manipulation, production manipulation, and expense manipulation. Mechanism tests indicate that ETFs curb earnings management by improving stock liquidity and strengthening external monitoring. We also find that the influence of ETFs is stronger in private firms, in firms with lower information transparency, and in firms with CEO duality, suggesting that ETFs serve as a more prominent external governance force when internal governance mechanisms are relatively weak. Overall, this study enriches the literature on the economic consequences of ETFs and provides new empirical evidence that financial innovation in emerging markets can help alleviate the information risk faced by investors.
  • 详情 Why Bad Performing Mutual Funds Remain Popular?
    The flow-performance relation in China’s mutual fund market differs from that in developed markets (e.g., the U.S.). We find that investors actively allocate capital to poorly performing funds, generating a negative relation at the bottom of return distribution. These flows are driven mainly by increased purchases rather than reduced redemptions. We then examine the mechanisms behind this anomaly. First, investors act on rational expectations of performance reversals, with this pattern being more pronounced among funds with higher activeness. Second, product differentiation attracts heterogeneous investors when performance is weak. Third, marketing and fund family effects serve as simple signals that amplify inflows. Overall, our study provides new empirical evidence on fund investor behavior and its economic consequences in an emerging market context.
  • 详情 Concentration in Supply Chain Configuration and Corporate Investment Efficiency
    Purpose: High investment efficiency is a key dimension of high-quality enterprise development. As critical nodes embedded in supply chain networks, corporate investment behaviors are profoundly shaped by the structural characteristics of their supply chains. Concentrated supply chain configuration, as one of the core structural features, has not yet been systematically examined in terms of its impact on corporate investment efficiency and the underlying mechanisms, leaving an important research gap. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a sample of China’s A-share listed enterprises from 2007 to 2023, this study empirically examines the effect of concentrated supply chain configuration on corporate investment efficiency. Findings: First, concentrated supply chain configuration exerts a significant inhibitory effect on corporate investment efficiency, a conclusion that remains robust after a series of tests. Second, mechanism tests indicate that this influence operates primarily through three channels: exacerbating financing constraints, crowding out working capital, and deteriorating the information environment. Third, heterogeneity analysis shows that both supplier concentration and customer concentration inhibit investment efficiency, with the latter having a slightly stronger negative effect. The adverse impact is more pronounced in over-investing enterprises, non-state-owned enterprises, smaller firms, and those in growth or decline stages. Furthermore, regional factor market development, external market power, and internal control quality are found to effectively mitigate the negative effect of concentrated supply chain configuration on corporate investment efficiency. Originality: This study extends the research on determinants of corporate investment efficiency from a supply chain structure perspective, providing new theoretical insights and empirical evidence for understanding corporate investment behavior in China.
  • 详情 Does Auction Design Facilitate Collusion?
    This paper examines how auction design can unintentionally facilitate bidder collusion in land market. Departing from the dominant view that attributes low land concession revenues to corruption, we highlight how features of auction structure enable bidder-side collusion, suppressing sale prices. Using a dataset of land auctions from 15 Chinese cities (2006–2016), we find that two-stage (listing) auctions are significantly more susceptible to collusion than one-stage formats. Empirical evidence shows that sales concluding at the (secret) reserve price occur disproportionately in two-stage auctions, even after controlling for land and market characteristics. We argue that the transparency and sequencing of two-stage auctions, while designed to enhance fairness, inadvertently reduce monitoring costs and facilitate tacit bidder coordination. Our findings underscore the need to jointly consider auction format and reserve price policy in designing land sales to enhance market efficiency and mitigate collusion risks.
  • 详情 Unintentional Man-Made Disasters, Risk Preferences, and Insurance Demand
    While unintentional man-made disasters constitute the majority of man-made catastrophes, empirical evidence on their economic consequences remains scarce. Utilizing a unique dataset on extremely severe accidents (ESAs) in China and a nationally representative longitudinal household survey, we find that unintentional man-made disasters reduce individuals' willingness to take risks. We further demonstrate that the severity of official penalties following ESAs is positively correlated with both fatalities and economic losses, yet these punitive measures fail to mitigate the negative impact on risk preferences. Additionally, we find that ESAs reduce demand for riskier, high-return-oriented insurance products, though they do not diminish demand for protection-oriented, non-investment productslike health insurance. Our findings address a critical gap in the literature regarding the effects of unintentional manmade disasters on risk attitudes and insurance demand.