In the digital era, the information value of online prices, characterized by weak price stickiness and high sensitivity to economic shocks, deserves more attention. This paper integrates the high-frequency online inflation rate into the dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model to explore its relationship with the term structure of interest rates. The empirical results show that the weekly online inflation can significantly predict the yield curve, particularly the slope factor, while the monthly official inflation is predicted by yield curve factors. The mechanism analyses indicate that, due to low price stickiness, online inflation is more responsive to short-term economic conditions and better reflects money market liquidity, thereby having predictive power for the yield curve. Specifically, online inflation for non-durable goods and on weekdays shows stronger predictive power for the slope factor. The heterogeneity in price stickiness across these categories explains the varying impacts on the yield curve.

Taking the prevalence of the global green development concept and China's green credit development practice as the background, this paper constructs a theoretical model analysis framework with the incentive policy of green credit as the entry point. First, the impact effect of green credit incentive policy is examined using the BVAR model. The results show that the green credit incentive policy suppresses the output level in the short run through the financing constraint channel, but has a positive contribution to output in the long run due to the adjustment of the production structure and the dynamic adjustment of green investment and R&D. Next, the paper constructs a DSGE model embedded with green credit fiscal and tax incentive policies, which explains the impact mechanisms and comparative effects of fiscal and financial policies driving green credit. The model shows that the re-guarantee policy is the most effective and consensual green credit incentive policy. In terms of the policy combination, the combination of the re-guarantee policy and the income tax policy is the current optimal policy pairing, and its policy is able to produce an amplification effect through the balance sheet channels of commercial banks and enterprises at the same time. In addition, a certain intensity of the above policy combination not only can effectively increase the scale of green credit, but also does not produce significant negative shocks to output and inflation. In summary, the findings of this paper provide a useful reference for the formulation and implementation of green credit incentive policies.

As many ESG rating agencies have flourished to meet rising interests in ESG investing, we examine the information provider role of these rating agencies. We hypothesize that new ratings can add information useful to investors about rated firms besides any changes to the average level and dispersion in ratings. We exploited the empirical setting where the introduction of various ESG ratings in China is staggered over time and across firms. We show that an increase in the number of ratings by different agencies for a given firm will induce more mutual funds’ investments towards that firm. This is unexplained by rating inflation or rating shopping channels. We further show that such effect is more pronounced when incumbent and entrant agents provide complementary information. For different types of funds, we find different sensitivities to the arrival of new agents in accordance with their explicit requirements for ESG mandate. And interestingly ESG funds that track ESG indices are not responsive to new ratings as ESG indices are sticky in choosing the reference rating. We also provide evidence that the documented effects are not due to endogenous actions taken by incumbent agencies or the firms. Our paper provides interesting and causal evidence of the incremental information from additional ESG ratings which have important implications for the market competition and regulations of ESG rating agencies.

There is mixed evidence of a positive relationship between the stock market risk and return. We reexamine this critical implication of asset pricing theory using fresh data from China's stock market, which is largely segmented from the rest of the global financial market. Using formal variable selection methods and a comprehensive set of predictor variables, we identify conditional market variance, scaled market prices, and inflation as crucial determinants of equity premiums. The estimated simple risk-return relationship exhibits downward omitted variable bias, which underlines the importance of considering multiple factors to explain the variation in equity premiums. We cannot wholly attribute the three-factor conditional equity premium model to data mining, as Guo, Sanni, and Yu (2022) select the same model for the U.S. stock market. These findings challenge existing asset pricing models and provide valuable guidance for future theoretical research.

The study reveals that the COVID-19 crisis has had a strong but one-off negative impact on the hedge fund industry. It also shows that during the new coronavirus pandemic, the main components of the hedge fund industry achieved only partially their main investment goal, i.e. they as a whole provided a hedge of the investment risk but did not produce higher than the market return in the conditions of a growing capital market. In this situation, due to the relatively stable М&A market, the Event-Driven Risk Arbitrage strategy was undoubtedly most successful, followed by the Emerging Markets, the Global Macro and the Long/Short Equity strategies. The worst performance was reported for the Fixed Income Arbitrage strategy due to the currently overvalued bond markets and to the expectations for higher inflation rates in the countries with developed capital markets.

An optimal tax and borrowing plan determines the marginal cost of servicing government debt, p', and makes the government’s debt risk-free. An option to default restricts debt capacity. Optimal debt-GDP ratio dynamics are driven by 1) a primary deficit, 2) interest payments, 3) GDP growth, and 4) hedging costs. Hedging influences debt capacity and debt transition dynamics. For plausible parameter values, we make comparative dynamic quantitative statements about debt-GDP ratio transition dynamics, debt capacity, and how long it would take our example economy to attain that calibrated equilibrium debt capacity.

This paper creates default-probability-(PD)-implied credit ratings for Chinese firms following the S&P global rating standard. The domestic credit rating agency (DCRA) ratings are higher than the PD-implied ratings by ten notches on average for the identical level of default risk, implying that the domestic ratings are significantly inflated. The PD-implied ratings outperform the DCRA ratings in detecting defaults and complement the latter in predicting yield spreads. The PD-implied ratings draw information from operating efficiency-related variables; in contrast, the DCRA ratings pay attention to scale-based firm characteristics in credit risk assessment.

Based on a DSGE model embedded with a stock market, we inspect interconnection between China's financial markets and macroeconomic cycles. We find consumption, investment and capacity utilization display significant and positive responses to stock market booms triggered by financial and confidence shocks, however, inflation responds insignificantly. We perceive a counteractive and significant reaction of China's monetary policy rule to credit-to-GDP gap at business cycle frequency. We decompose stock price into fundamental value influenced by the financial shock and speculative bubble driven by the confidence shock, and the confidence shock's contribution to stock price fluctuations is estimated to be about 14.8%. Model validation based on the DSGE-VAR framework indicates no serious structural model misspecification.

利率工具作为央行货币政策的重要组成部分，也是实施货币政策的主要手段之一。中央银行根据货币政策实施的需要，适时地运用利率工具，对利率水平和结构进行调整，以此影响社会资金供求状况，调节微观经济主体的具体经济行为，进而实现既定的货币政策目标。 自2008年经济危机以来，中国人民银行多次利用存款准备金率和利率工具对国家宏观经济进行调节，特别是2010年以来为了应对由之前过度宽松货币政策导致的严重通胀形势，央行5次提高存贷款基准利率，12次提高存款准备金率至21.5%的历史高位。尽管如此，但是国内利率水平依然处在低位，实际利率持续为负。存准率过度提高导致货币供给大幅减少，利率水平维持低位使货币需求上升，这样扭曲的货币政策导致了我国宏观经济在各方面的失衡，并且遭到了来自各界的非议。究竟利率工具的宏观经济调控效果如何呢，为何央行不愿意使用价格型货币政策工具——利率进行调控呢？虽然目前存准率工具的使用次数要远多于利率工具，但是随着今后利率市场化改革的深入推进和我国金融体制的开放改革，今后利率调控工具将会成为央行调节宏观经济运行节奏的主要手段。因此，研究利率政策调控对宏观经济的影响将有助于我们明确利率调控的效果、认清宏观经济变化的原因，在利率市场化的背景下也能够为央行制定科学的货币政策提供决策依据。 本文是按照“回顾改革以来利率政策的调整历史→实际利率变动对主要宏观经济目标的实证检验→影响利率政策效果的原因分析→增强利率调控效果的政策建议”的基本思路，展开全文的分析讨论。在对改革开放三十年以来的利率政策历史回顾分析的基础上，采用定性和定量分析相结合的方法，对利率变动与经济增长率、通货膨胀率以及城镇登记失业率进行实证检验，得出不同阶段实际利率的变化对不同宏观经济目标的影响。在此基础上得出全文结论，实际利率与经济增长率的关系从正相关逐渐发展为负相关，与通胀率则是显著的负相关，而实际利率与城镇登记失业率则呈现很弱的相关性。然后具体分析影响我国利率政策调控宏观经济效果的原因，主要包括利率管制政策、金融市场发展建设及经济主体行为三个方面。最后在前文讨论的基础上提出增强利率调控效果的政策建议，主要包括放松利率管制、继续推进利率市场化改革、完善货币市场发展建设、加强央行宏观调控能力等方面。 Interest rate policy is an important component of monetary policy，also the one main instruments of monetary policy implementation．According to the People’s Bank of China monetary policy needs in a timely manner，use of interest rate tools，include the level of interest rates and interest rate structure in order to affect the supply and demand of funds，micro-economic regulation of the main acts，and to achieve monetary policy objectives． After 2008 world economic crisis, the interest rate and deposit-reserve ratio has been changed more times to adjust China’s macroeconomic. Especially since 2010 to cope with the serious inflation caused by the prior overly lax monetary policy, the central bank raised the benchmark deposit and lending interest rates 5 times and 12 times to raise the deposit reserve ratio to 21.5% highs. In spite of this, but the domestic interest rate level is still low, the real interest rate is negative for longtime. Money supply is greatly reduced by the excessive increase of deposit reserve ratio, and monetary demand rises because the level of interest rates remains low. Such distortion of the monetary policy in our country makes our macro economy imbalance in all aspects, and has received criticism from all walks of life. How about the interest rate tool of macroeconomic regulation and control effect, why the central bank is not willing to use price monetary policy tools -- interest rate regulation? Although the deposit-reserve ratio has been changed more than the interest rate, but with the market-oriented reform of interest rate and financial system, interest rate regulation will be the main method of macroeconomic adjusting control. So studying on macroeconomic effects of real interest rate would help us to be more clearly knowing the results of the interest rate policy and understanding the reasons for changes in the economy. Furthermore，in our country, the interest rate is not fully market-oriented, the study is also helpful for authorities to make the correct monetary and interest rate policy. “Review the history of interest rate policy adjustment from Reform and Opening up→the empirical test of real interest rate on the main macroeconomic goals→the reasons analysis which have influence on the effects of interest rate policy→the policy recommendations which make interest rate regulation more effective" This is the main train of thought of this paper, around which expand the analysis and discussion. Based on the review of the history of interest rate policy after Reform and Opening-up from 1980, used the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, through analyzed the effects of real interest rates which impacted on the three macroeconomic objectives, include the GDP growth rate、the inflation rate and the urban registered unemployment rate, we get the result that in different stages, the interest rate policy have different impacts on economic objectives. At the last, we get the whole conclusion and analyzed the reasons which caused interest rate policy to be ineffective on the macro economy. Finally, according to China’s financial market, this paper gave some reform suggestions which can make interest rate policy to be more effective on macro economic adjusting control.

China’s financial prices are informative enough for the PBC to introduce a monetary policy framework centered around interest rates. While bond yields are not fully efficient—reflecting regulation, liquidity, and segmentation—we find they contain considerable information about the state of the economy as well as evidence of an emerging transmission channel: changes in PBC rates influence the structure of Treasury, financial, and corporate bond yield curves, which are then associated with changes in growth and inflation. Coporate spreads are also a leading indicator of growth and inflation. While further liberalization will strengthen both efficiency and transmission, several necessary elements to move towards indirect monetary policy are already in place.