陈赵珺

While unintentional man-made disasters constitute the majority of man-made catastrophes, empirical evidence on their economic consequences remains scarce. Utilizing a unique dataset on extremely severe accidents (ESAs) in China and a nationally representative longitudinal household survey, we find that unintentional man-made disasters reduce individuals' willingness to take risks. We further demonstrate that the severity of official penalties following ESAs is positively correlated with both fatalities and economic losses, yet these punitive measures fail to mitigate the negative impact on risk preferences. Additionally, we find that ESAs reduce demand for riskier, high-return-oriented insurance products, though they do not diminish demand for protection-oriented, non-investment productslike health insurance. Our findings address a critical gap in the literature regarding the effects of unintentional manmade disasters on risk attitudes and insurance demand.

This paper examines why tax incentives fail to stimulate participation in China's third-pillar commercial pension insurance, emphasizing the role of rational inattention. Using household survey data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) spanning 2014-2022 and a difference-in-differences-in-differences (DDD) design, we find that pilot policy generated a statistically insignificant average effect on participation, with rational inattention - proxied by financial literacy - explaining much of its ineffectiveness. We develop a dynamic consumption-portfolio model featuring costly information acquisition, and then resolve limitations of standard models through a dynamic framework with distinct savings channels and policy-focused rational inattention. The models show that rational inattention distorts perceptions of tax benefits and wage growth, raising participation costs, while multiple savings channels dilute incentives. Only households with higher financial literacy substantially respond to the policy. Our results reveal how cognitive frictions undermine pension reform and offer implications for designing behaviorally-informed retirement schemes.

Adverse selection remains a significant challenge in the insurance industry, often resulting in substantial financial losses for insurers. The primary hurdle in addressing the issue lies in accurately identifying and quantifying adverse selection. Traditional methods often fail to adequately account for the heterogeneity of insurance purchasers and the endogenous nature of their insurance decisions. This study introduces an innovative approach that integrates the Gaussian Mixture Model and the regression-based model from Dionne et al. (2001) to assess adverse selection, addressing the limitations of previous methods. Through comprehensive simulations, we demonstrate that our method yields unbiased estimates, outperforming existing approaches. Applied to China’s automobile insurance market, leveraging IoT devices to track telematics data, this method captures risk heterogeneity among the insured. The results offer robust evidence of adverse selection, in contrast to conventional methods that fail to detect this phenomenon due to their inability to capture the underlying relationship between customer risk and claim behavior. Our approach offers insurers a robust framework for identifying information asymmetries in the market, thereby enabling the development of more targeted policy interventions and risk management strategies.

Climate change is increasing the risks of weather-related disasters in many regions around the world. This has an adverse socio-economic impact on households, farmers and small businesses. Some strategies for effectively managing climate related disasters include index based insurance products, which are increasingly offered as alternatives to traditional insurance, particularly in low-income countries. However, the uptake of index insurance remains low, which can be partially attributed to the inherent problem of basis risk. This review assesses the problem of

Background: How to cope with the rapid growth of LTC (long-term care) needs for the old people without activities of daily living (ADL), which is also a serious hazard caused by public health emergencies such as COVID-2019 and SARS (2003), has become an urgent task in China, Germany, Japan, and other aging countries. As a response, the LTCI (longterm care insurance) system has been executed among European countries and piloted in 15 cities of China in 2016. Subsequently, the influence and dilemma of LTCI system have become a hot academic topic in the past 20 years.Methods: The review was carried out to reveal the effects of the LTCI system on different economic entities by reviewing relevantliterature published from January 2008 to September 2019. The quality of 25 quantitative and 24 qualitative articles was evaluated using the JBI and CASP critical evaluation checklist, respectively. Results: The review systematically examines the effects of the LTCI system on different microeconomic entities such as caretakers or their families and macroeconomic entities such as government spending. The results show that the LTCI system has a great impact on social welfare. For example, LTCI has a positive effect on the health and life quality of the disabled elderly. However, the role of LTCI in alleviating the financial burden on families with the disabled elderly may be limited. Conclusion: Implementation of LTCI system not only in reducing the physical and mental health problems of health care recipients and providers, and the economic burden of their families, but also promote the development of health care service industry and further improvement of the health care system. However, the dilemma and sustainable development of the LTCI system is the government needs to focus on in the future due to the sustainability of its funding sources.

The 16th annual China International Conference on Insurance and Risk Management (CICIRM 2026) will be held on July 8-11, 2026 at the Yunnan Lianyun Hotel in Kunming, Yunnan, China. The conference is organized by the China Center for Insurance and Risk Management, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, and co-organized by the School of Finance, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics.

The 2008 Labor Contract Law of China stipulates that all employment relationships must be covered by a written labor contract. This regulation considerably strengthened employment protection for workers. Using a unique longitudinal dataset, the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (2012, 2014, and 2016 waves), this article estimates the impact of the formal contractualization of labor relations on workers’ labor market outcomes, social insurance participation, and job satisfaction. We find that gaining a labor contract was strongly associated with an increase in salary, a decrease in working overtime hours, and greater participation in unemployment and pension insurances. In terms of job satisfaction, workers who gained a labor contract reported being less satisfied with their workplace environment and income than they had anticipated. This finding suggests that workers had higher expectations from the benefits gained through contractualization, than what they actually derived.

A strong reputation is a cornerstone of corporate finance theory, widely believed to relax financial constraints and lower capital costs. We challenge this view by identifying an ‘reputation paradox’: under modern risk-sensitive regulation, for firms with long-term liabilities, a better reputation may paradoxically increase capital strain. We argue that the improvement of firm’s reputation alters customer behavior , , which extends liability duration and amplifies measured risk. By using the life insurance industry as an ideal laboratory, we develop an innovative framework that integrates LLMs with actuarial cash flow models, which confirms that the improved reputation increases regulatory capital demands. A comparative analysis across major regulatory regimes—C-ROSS, Solvency II, and RBC—and two insurance products, we further demonstrate that improvements in reputation affect capital requirements unevenly across product types and regulatory frameworks. Our findings challenge the conventional view that reputation uniformly alleviates capital pressure, emphasizing the necessity for insurers to strategically align reputation management with solvency planning.

The aging population is intensifying, and solving the problem of elderly care is urgent. This article is based on CHFS (2019) survey data, and empirical research has found that commercial pension insurance significantly promotes households' allocation of risky financial assets. The mechanism is tested using household risk perception and investment risk preference as mediating variables. In addition, through heterogeneity testing, it was found that the positive effect of commercial pension insurance on the allocation of risky financial assets is more significant in rural households with household registration, two sets of housing, and households in the northeast.