详情
Vultures circling overhead: Does short selling tell the future?
This paper evidences a lead-lag relationship between securities which experience high levels of
short-selling and those that do not. This is based on evidence that short-selling increases the speed
with which information, especially negative information, is absorbed into prices. Previous literature
mainly focus on the presence of short-selling and its effect on prices. This paper focuses on the
magnitude of short-selling and finds a strong lead-lag relationship between returns of stocks that
experience heavy short-selling compared to those that experience slight amounts. The relationship
conforms to that of Chordia & Swaminthan’s (2000) speed adjustment hypothesis, in that it
facilitates the imputation of common information. The relationship is strongest in small illiquid
stocks where short-selling aids in the imputation of common information symmetrically and
asymmetrically, and reduces as stocks become larger and more liquid. However in extremely volatile
markets this relationship suffers. The relationship is robust to various factors including out of sample
tests, accounting for size, and accounting for volume. Of note is the finding that short-selling aids in
information imputation over-and-above the efficiency attributed to sophisticated investors. This
indicates that market maker and uninformed short-sales add to the lead-lag effect.