lead-lag relationship

  • 详情 Vultures circling overhead: Does short selling tell the future?
    This paper evidences a lead-lag relationship between securities which experience high levels of short-selling and those that do not. This is based on evidence that short-selling increases the speed with which information, especially negative information, is absorbed into prices. Previous literature mainly focus on the presence of short-selling and its effect on prices. This paper focuses on the magnitude of short-selling and finds a strong lead-lag relationship between returns of stocks that experience heavy short-selling compared to those that experience slight amounts. The relationship conforms to that of Chordia & Swaminthan’s (2000) speed adjustment hypothesis, in that it facilitates the imputation of common information. The relationship is strongest in small illiquid stocks where short-selling aids in the imputation of common information symmetrically and asymmetrically, and reduces as stocks become larger and more liquid. However in extremely volatile markets this relationship suffers. The relationship is robust to various factors including out of sample tests, accounting for size, and accounting for volume. Of note is the finding that short-selling aids in information imputation over-and-above the efficiency attributed to sophisticated investors. This indicates that market maker and uninformed short-sales add to the lead-lag effect.
  • 详情 Information Transmission in Informationally Linked Markets: Evidence Based on Non-Synchronous Trading Information
    This paper investigates information transmission and price discovery mechanisms in informationally linked and non-synchronous trading markets within the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity framework. Using daily data for copper and soybean contracts from the Chinese futures and spot markets, as well as the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures markets, we show that there are asymmetric lead-lag relationships between any two of the three markets. We also find that the volatilities spill over from one market to another for both cases of copper and soybeans. However, the copper and soybean markets exhibit quite different patterns of information transmission. Further, we highlight the remarkable role of the Chinese futures markets in the price formation process, though the LME/CBOT futures markets are the main driving force in price discovery.