news

  • 详情 Positive Press, Greener Progress: The Role of ESG Media Reputation in Corporate Energy Innovation
    The growing emphasis on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles, particularly in corporate sectors, shapes investment trends and operational strategies, whose shift is supported by the increasing role of media in monitoring and influencing corporate ESG performance, thereby driving the energy innovation. Therefore, based on reported events from Baidu News and patent text information of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2022, this study innovatively applied machine learning and text analysis to measure ESG news sentiment and corporate energy innovation indicators. Combing with reputation, stakeholder, and agency theories, we find that a good reputation conveyed by positive ESG textual sentiments in the media significantly promotes corporate energy innovation, and the effect is mainly realized through alleviating financing constraints and agency problems and promoting green investment. Further analysis shows that ESG news sentiment promotes corporate energy innovation mainly among private firms, non-growth-stage firms, high-energy-consuming firms, and regions with better green finance development and higher ESG governance intensity. From the perspective of ESG news content and information content, greater ESG news attention can also exert an energy innovation incentive effect, in which the incentive effect exerted by positive media sentiment in the environmental (E) and social (S) dimensions, as well as excellent attention, is more robust. This study provides new insights for promoting green and low-carbon development and understanding the external governance role of media in corporate ESG development.
  • 详情 A multifactor model using large language models and investor sentiment from photos and news: new evidence from China
    This study introduces an innovative approach for constructing multimodal investor sentiment indices and explores their varying impacts on stock market returns. We employ the RoBERTa model to quantify text-based sentiment, the Google Inception(v3) model for image-based sentiment measurement, and a multimodal semantic correlation fusion model to comprehensively consider the interplay between textual and visual sentiment features. These sentiment indices are further categorised into industry-specific investor sentiment and market-wide investor sentiment, enabling separate analyses of their effects on stock markets. Furthermore, we leverage these indices to build a multifactor stock selection model and timing strategies. Our research findings demonstrate that multimodal sentiment analysis yields superior predictive accuracy. Industry-specific investor sentiment exerts bidirectional positive influences on stock market returns, whereas market-wide investor sentiment indices exhibit unidirectional impacts. Integrating industry-specific investor sentiment into our multifactor stock selection model effectively enhances portfolio returns. Furthermore, combining market-wide investor sentiment with timing strategy optimisation further augments this advantage.
  • 详情 Modeling Investor Attention with News Hypergraphs
    We introduce a hypergraph-based approach to analyze information flow and investor attention transfers through news outlets in financial markets. Extending traditional graph models that focus on pairwise interactions, our hypergraph framework captures higher order relationships between firms that are simultaneously mentioned in the same news article. We develop a random walk based centrality framework that considers both the properties of the hyperedges (news articles) and the nodes (firms). This framework allows us to more accurately simulate investor attention flows and to incorporate different theories of investor behavior, such as category learning and investor attention theory. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our attention centrality, we apply it to the Chinese CSI500 market index from 2016 to 2021, where our centrality measures improve the prediction of future returns, with improvements ranging from 6.3% to 14.0% compared to traditional graph-based models. This improvement implies that our centrality measure can better capture investor attention transfers on the news hypergraph. In particular, we find that investors pay more attention to news that covers both a greater number of firms and firms on which the sentiments are more negative. Although we focus on financial markets in this research, our hypergraph framework holds potential for broader applications in information systems — for example, in understanding social or collaboration networks.
  • 详情 How Do Online Media Affect Cash Dividends? Evidence from China
    Using a comprehensive dataset for Chinese listed companies from 2009 to 2021, we find that online media is negatively associated with cash dividend level, and the proportion of positive news has a negative moderating effect on this relationship. Our results support the "information intermediary" effect and exclude the "external governance" and "market pressure" effects. We further propose that online media weakens the positive relationship between cash dividends and past earnings (rather than the future), indicating that cash dividends contain signals of improvement in past earnings and are replaced by online news. We also find that only firms with more positive news pay dividends that have signaling effects, and there is a synergistic effect between positive news and dividend signal. Additional results show that the effect of online media on dividend policy is more pronounced than traditional media, which has almost no influence. Our main conclusions remain valid after addressing potential endogeneity issues and conducting various robustness tests.
  • 详情 Large Language Models and Return Prediction in China
    We examine whether large language models (LLMs) can extract contextualized representation of Chinese news articles and predict stock returns. The LLMs we examine include BERT, RoBERTa, FinBERT, Baichuan, ChatGLM and their ensemble model. We find that tones and return forecasts extracted by LLMs from news significantly predict future returns. The equal- and value-weighted long minus short portfolios yield annualized returns of 90% and 69% on average for the ensemble model. Given that these news articles are public information, the predictive power lasts about two days. More interestingly, the signals extracted by LLMs contain information about firm fundamentals, and can predict the aggressiveness of future trades. The predictive power is noticeably stronger for firms with less efficient information environment, such as firms with lower market cap, shorting volume, institutional and state ownership. These results suggest that LLMs are helpful in capturing under-processed information in public news, for firms with less efficient information environment, and thus contribute to overall market efficiency.
  • 详情 ESG news and firm value: Evidence from China’s automation of pollution monitoring
    We study how financial markets integrate news about pollution abatement costs into firm values. Using China’s automation of pollution monitoring, we find that firms with factories in bad-news cities---cities that used to report much lower pollution than the automated reading---see significant declines in stock prices. This is consistent with the view that investors expect firms in high-pollution cities to pay significant adjustment and abatement costs to become “greener.” However, the efficiency with which such information is incorporated into prices varies widely---while the market reaction is quick in the Hong Kong stock market, it is considerably delayed in the mainland ones, resulting in a drift. The equity markets expect most of these abatement costs to be paid by private firms and not by state-owned enterprises, and by brown firms and not by green firms.
  • 详情 Attentive Market Timing
    This paper provides evidence that some seasoned equity offerings are motivated by public information. We test this channel in the supply chain setting, where supplier managers are more attentive than outside investors to customer news. We find that supplier firms are more likely to issue seasoned equity when their customer firms have negative earnings surprises. The results are mitigated when there is common scrutiny on the customer-supplier firm pairs by outside investors and analysts. Furthermore, long-run stock market performance appears to be worse for firms that issue seasoned equity following the negative earnings surprise of their customer firms.
  • 详情 How Does Media Environment Affect Firm Innovation? Evidence from a Market-Oriented Media Reform in China
    Exploiting a unique market-oriented media reform initiated in 1996 in China, we investigate the role of media environment in affecting firm behaviour. We find robust evidence that market-oriented media environment is conductive to firm innovation, with the reform promoting patent quantity and quality substantially. The effect is more pronounced for firms with higher information asymmetry. Matching firm data with 1.3 million news reports, we find the market-oriented media reform significantly improves the criticalness and unbiasedness of news coverage and shapes an innovation-friendly environment. Our findings highlight economic outcomes of relaxing media control and underline substantial gains from deepening the reform.
  • 详情 Dissecting Momentum in China
    Why is price momentum absent in China? Since momentum is commonly considered arising from investors’ under-reaction to fundamental news, we decompose monthly stock returns into news- and non-news-driven components and document a news day return continuation along with an offsetting non-news day reversal in China. The non-news day reversal is particularly strong for stocks with high retail ownership, relatively less recent positive news articles, and limits to arbitrage. Evidence on order imbalance suggests that stock returns overshoot on news days due to retail investors' excessive attention-driven buying demands, and mispricing gets corrected by institutional investors on subsequent non-news days. To avoid this tug-of-war in stock price, we use a signal that directly captures the recent news performance and re-document a momentum-like underreaction to fundamental news in China.
  • 详情 Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index: A Generative AI Approach and An Application to Monetary Policy Transmission
    We construct a daily Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index by applying GPT-4o to Chinese news articles. Our method outperforms traditional models in several validation tests, including a test based on a suite of machine learning models. Applying this index to household-level data, we find that after monetary easing, an important group of homebuyers (who have a college degree and are aged between 30 and 50) in cities with more optimistic housing sentiment have lower responses in non-housing consumption, whereas for homebuyers in other age-education groups, such a pattern does not exist. This suggests that current monetary easing might be more effective in boosting non-housing consumption than in the past for China due to weaker crowding-out effects from pessimistic housing sentiment. The paper also highlights the need for complementary structural reforms to enhance monetary policy transmission in China, a lesson relevant for other similar countries. Methodologically, it offers a tool for monitoring housing sentiment and lays out some principles for applying generative AI models, adaptable to other studies globally.