Ambiguity

  • 详情 Ambiguous Volatility, Asymmetric Information and Irreversible investment
    We develop a signaling game model of investment to explore the effects of ambiguity aversion on corporate equilibrium strategies, investment dynamics, and financing decisions in incomplete markets with asymmetric information. Our analysis shows that volatility ambiguity aversion has a similar but more pronounced effect than asymmetric information, leading to higher financing costs, lower investment probabilities, and a greater likelihood of non-participation in investment. Importantly, volatility ambiguity aversion exhibits an amplifier effect, magnifying financing costs, adverse selection costs, and distortion in investment choices under asymmetric information. This increased ambiguity aversion raises the chances of inefficient separating and pooling equilibria, resulting in notable welfare losses. These findings highlight the significant impact of ambiguity aversion on strategic decision-making and equilibrium outcomes in investment, particularly in settings marked by information asymmetry and incomplete markets.
  • 详情 Ambiguity, Limited Market Participation, and the Cross-Sectional Stock Return
    Based on the expected utility under uncertain probability distribution, we explore whether the ambiguity of individual stocks is priced in China’s A-share market and the mechanism behind the ambiguity premium phenomenon. Theoretically, when the asset price is in a specific price range, investors with ambiguity aversion do not participate in the transaction of the asset. As the ambiguity of assets increases, investors with high ambiguity aversion withdraw from the market, and investors with low ambiguity aversion remain in the market (the limited market participation phenomenon); investors who remain in the market due to lower ambiguity aversion are also willing to accept a low ambiguity premium. Empirically, we use "the volatility of the distributions of daily stock returns within a month" to measure monthly ambiguity; and find that (1) the equal-weighted average returns of the most ambiguous portfolios (top 20%) are significantly lower 1.38% than those of the least ambiguous portfolios (bottom 20%); (2) ambiguity still significantly negatively affects the cross-sectional stock return after controlling for common firm characteristics; (3) the higher the ambiguity, the lower the future trading activity, the empirical results are consistent to the theoretical predictions. Those findings reveal the mechanism of the negative ambiguity premium in the A-share market, provide new ideas for further building a factor pricing model suitable for the A-share market, and provide a fresh perspective for preventing systemic financial risk.
  • 详情 Ambiguity, Limited Market Participation, and the Cross-Sectional Stock Return
    Based on the expected utility under uncertain probability distribution, we explore whether the ambiguity of individual stocks is priced in China’s A-share market and the mechanism behind the ambiguity premium phenomenon. Theoretically, when the asset price is in a specific price range, investors with ambiguity aversion do not participate in the transaction of the asset. As the ambiguity of assets increases, investors with high ambiguity aversion withdraw from the market, and investors with low ambiguity aversion remain in the market (the limited market participation phenomenon); investors who remain in the market due to lower ambiguity aversion are also willing to accept a low ambiguity premium. Empirically, we use "the volatility of the distributions of daily stock returns within a month" to measure monthly ambiguity; and find that (1) the equal-weighted average returns of the most ambiguous portfolios (top 20%) are significantly lower 1.38% than those of the least ambiguous portfolios (bottom 20%); (2) ambiguity still significantly negatively affects the cross-sectional stock return after controlling for common firm characteristics; (3) the higher the ambiguity, the lower the future trading activity, the empirical results are consistent to the theoretical predictions. Those findings reveal the mechanism of the negative ambiguity premium in the A-share market, provide new ideas for further building a factor pricing model suitable for the A-share market, and provide a fresh perspective for preventing systemic financial risk.
  • 详情 Reputation Effect of ESG Disclosure on Stock Liquidity: A Chinese Online Market Sample by Text Term Frequency Analysis
    The impact of corporate environment, society, and governance (ESG) disclosure on the online market remains uncertain. To address this ambiguity, this study utilizes text analysis to thematically classify research samples to examine the positive influence of corporate ESG disclosure on stock liquidity from a reputational perspective. Interestingly, the reputational effect of ESG disclosure shows asymmetry within the online market, particularly in its highly information-sensitive environment. Notably, negative media reputation insignificantly diminishes the positive impact of ESG disclosure on stock liquidity. A series of robustness tests confirm the reliability of the sample screening method and findings.
  • 详情 Ambiguity Loving, Market Participation, and Asset Pricing
    This paper investigates the trading behavior of ambiguity-loving investors and the corresponding impacts on asset price. The ambiguity-loving attitude increases investors' willingness to participate in the risky asset market. Their rising participation gradually crowds out ambiguity-averse and sophisticated investors, extending their nonparticipation region. When the market supply is small, the discontinuous and non-unique properties of ambiguity-loving investors' demand mapping can cause flat ranges in the equilibrium price. When the market supply is moderate or large, an increase in the fraction of ambiguity-loving investors or ambiguity level reduces equity premium. We find the effect of ambiguity-loving attitudes remains with short-sales constraints except for ambiguity-loving investors' positions and the equity premium. Their positions shrink, and equity premium decreases when the market supply is small. Besides, the rising fraction of ambiguity-level investors and ambiguity level increases equity premium when ambiguity-loving investors with heterogenous opinions only sell the risky asset.
  • 详情 Information Uncertainty and Expected Returns
    This study examines the role of information uncertainty (IU) in predicting cross-sectional stock returns. We define IU in terms of "value ambiguity", or the precision with which firm value can be estimated by knowledgeable investors at reasonable cost. Using several different proxies for IU, we show that: (1) On average, High IU firms earn lower future resturns (the "mean" effect), and (2) Price and earnings momentum effects are much stronger among high IU firms (the "interaction" effect). These findings are consistent with theoretical models that feature investor overconfidence (Daniel et al. (1998)) and information cascades (Bikhchandani et al. (1992)). Specifically, our evidence indicates that high IU exacerbates investor overconfidence and limits rational arbitrage.