Dynamic efficiency is an essential issue in macroeconomics and finance, central to the analyses of economic growth, asset pricing, and fiscal policies for both academia and policymakers. We offer an integrated analysis of metrics from the perspective of interest rates and capital returns, examining the relationship between varying rates of return r and growthg in China. We compare the risk-free rate rf, the returns on assets re, and the returns on capital rk with the growth rate g. Our findings indicate that, in general, rf < g, g < re, and g < rk. As the economy slows, the gap between rf and g continues to shrink, while the signs suggest that returns to capital are falling slightly slower than the rate of economic growth. Furthermore, we use a state-space model to estimate China’s natural rate of interest r∗ and potential output growth rate g∗. We find that r∗ < g∗ and the gap between themhas gradually narrowed over the past two decades.

This paper investigates the dynamic and long-run relationships between monetary policy and asset prices in China using monthly data from June 2005 to September 2010. Johansen’s cointegration approach based on vector autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality test are used to identify the long-run relationships and directions of causality between asset prices and monetary variables. Empirical results show that monetary policies have little immediate effect on asset prices, suggesting that Chinese investors may be ‘irrational’ and ‘speculative’. Instead of running away from the market, investors rush to buy houses or shares whenever tightening monetary actions are taken. Such seemingly irrational and speculative behavior can be explained by various social and economic factors, including lack of investment channels, market imperfections, cultural traditions, urbanization and demographic changes. The results have two important policy implications. First, China’s central bank has not used and should not use interest rate alone to maintain macro-economic stability. Second, both monetary and non-monetary policies should be deployed when asset bubbles loom large to avoid devastating consequences when they burst.

This paper investigates the dynamic and long-run relationships between monetary policy and asset prices in China using monthly data from June 2005 to September 2010. Johansen’s cointegration approach based on vector autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality test are used to identify the long-run relationships and directions of causality between asset prices and monetary variables. Empirical results show that monetary policies have little immediate effect on asset prices, suggesting that Chinese investors may be ‘irrational’ and ‘speculative’. Instead of running away from the market, investors rush to buy houses or shares whenever tightening monetary actions are taken. Such seemingly irrational and speculative behavior can be explained by various social and economic factors, including lack of investment channels, market imperfections, cultural traditions, urbanization and demographic changes. The results have two important policy implications. First, China’s central bank has not used and should not use interest rate alone to maintain macro-economic stability. Second, both monetary and non-monetary policies should be deployed when asset bubbles loom large to avoid devastating consequences when they burst.

This paper investigates the dynamic and long-run relationships between monetary policy and asset prices in China using monthly data from June 2005 to September 2010. Johansen’s cointegration approach based on vector autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality test are used to identify the long-run relationships and directions of causality between asset prices and monetary variables. Empirical results show that monetary policies have little immediate effect on asset prices, suggesting that Chinese investors may be ‘irrational’ and ‘speculative’. Instead of running away from the market, investors rush to buy houses or shares whenever tightening monetary actions are taken. Such seemingly irrational and speculative behavior can be explained by various social and economic factors, including lack of investment channels, market imperfections, cultural traditions, urbanization and demographic changes. The results have two important policy implications. First, China’s central bank has not used and should not use interest rate alone to maintain macro-economic stability. Second, both monetary and non-monetary policies should be deployed when asset bubbles loom large to avoid devastating consequences when they burst.

This paper investigates the dynamic and long-run relationships between monetary policy and asset prices in China using monthly data from June 2005 to September 2010. Johansen?s cointegration approach based on vector autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality test are used to identify the long-run relationships and directions of causality between asset prices and monetary variables. Empirical results show that monetary policies have little immediate effect on asset prices, suggesting that Chinese investors may be ?irrational? and ?speculative?. Instead of running away from the market, investors rush to buy houses or shares whenever tightening monetary actions are taken. Such seemingly irrational and speculative behavior can be explained by various social and economic factors, including lack of investment channels, market imperfections, cultural traditions, urbanization and demographic changes. The results have two important policy implications. First, China?s central bank has not used and should not use interest rate alone to maintain macro-economic stability. Second, both monetary and non-monetary policies should be deployed when asset bubbles loom large to avoid devastating consequences when they burst.

This paper firstly discusses alignment of SWFs with macroeconomic policy. We believe that SWFs can become an effective tool for fiscal policy; SWF investments should be made in alignment with the monetary authority, and help stabilize the exchange rate. SWFs also contribute to stability of the national balance sheet. Asset allocation of SWFs has significant impacts on the current and capital accounts of both domestic and international balance sheets. Secondly, this paper explores the impacts of SWFs on the global financial market and its stability, including those on asset bubbles, equity risk premium and financial market stability. We argue that the potential negative impact of SWFs on the global financial market is very limited, and that they are important stabilizing forces in the global financial market. We believe that SWFs contribute to the coordination of macroeconomic policy from a domestic point of view and to the stability of global financial market from an international point of view.