将实体能源状态转化为货币触发条件，是央行数字货币（CBDC，Central Bank Digital Currency）从支付工具升级为政策工具的关键一跃。本文基于数字人民币2.0的“账户体系+币串+智能合约”技术架构，系统论证了数字人民币嵌入绿电与碳信用验证的可行性。研究表明，境内环境下该路径具备三重独特优势：技术层面的可编程性与实时结算能力、数据层面的主权部门背书与闭环验证、制度层面的结构性货币政策工具与双层运营激励兼容。中国人民银行2021年推出的碳减排支持工具，为数字人民币嵌入气候目标提供了制度先例与数据基础设施。若将碳减排支持工具的资金投放与数字人民币智能合约结合，可实现“资金投放—项目建成—碳减排核验—利息优惠兑现”的全链条自动化。本文进一步明确了“可验证法币支付”与“不可发行替代代币”的制度边界，这不是远景设想，而是技术条件与制度环境共同作用下的渐进实践方向。

Using proprietary data from China’s interbank bond-pledged repo market, we show that the interest-rate risk and credit risk of the pledged bond are key determinants of repo pricing. From a bond-option perspective, we develop arbitrage-free models that anchor the repo yield curve to the pledged-bond yield curve. The fair repo haircut is interpreted as the per-unit price of a call option on the pledged bond. We extend this framework to incorporate bail-in or bail-out potential, which enhances the model’s empirical performance and provides a novel explanation for systematic repo cheapness and existence of negative haircuts.

We conduct a field experiment in China, o↵ering small business owners a conditional social media advertising subsidy. Beyond boosting business revenue and employment, the inter-vention significantly increases access to fintech credit: treated firms are more likely to open online stores and obtain online loans, while bank credit remains una↵ected. Our findings reveal a “fintech accelerator” mechanism—digital marketing drives sales growth that directly improves firms’ eligibility for fintech lending—demonstrating how targeted digital interven-tions can enhance financial inclusion and reshape credit allocation for small businesses.

Serving on the official unsecured creditors' committee (UCC) of a bankrupt firm provides hedge funds with access to material nonpublic information (MNPI), which can facilitate their informed trading across firms and asset markets. We find that hedge funds increase equity turnover and execute more large trades in the quarters following UCC membership. In contrast, hedge funds do not exhibit such trading behavior after accessing public information about bankrupt firms or holding the bankrupt firm's debt without committee involvement. Importantly, these large trades often target firms with close economic ties to the bankrupt entity. Returns from these MNPI-driven trades are substantial.

We exploit a unique financial regulatory tool with data-governance functions as a quasi-natural experiment to explore the determinants of bank risk-taking. The paper finds that Examination Analysis System Technology (EAST) reduces bank risk-taking. This result is more pronounced in banks with higher capital adequacy ratios and higher liquidity levels. We also find that the inhibitory effect of EAST on bank risk is more significant for banks in eastern regions and listed banks. Our findings highlight the positive impact of data regulation on promoting financial stability.

This study develops a novel deep learning framework for bank distress prediction, designed to overcome the limitations of static network analysis and to enhance model interpretability. We propose a Spatio-Temporal Attention Network that uniquely captures the time-varying nature of systemic risk. Methodologically, it introduces two key innovations: (1) a dynamic interbank network whose connection weights are adjusted by the volatility of the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR), reflecting real-time market liquidity changes; and (2) a dual spatio-temporal attention mechanism that identifies critical time steps and pivotal contagion pathways leading to a distress event. Empirical results demonstrate that the model significantly outperforms traditional benchmarks across key metrics including accuracy and F1-score. Most critically, the architecture proves exceptionally effective at reducing Type II errors, substantially minimizing the failure to identify at-risk banks. The model also offers high interpretability, with attention weights visualizing intuitive risk evolution patterns. We conclude that incorporating dynamic, liquidity-adjusted networks is crucial for superior predictive performance in systemic risk modeling.

We compile a Chinese counterpart to the TRACE dataset and provide the first trade-level analysis of China’s wholesale corporate bond market—the second largest in the world. In contrast to the dealer-dominated, core–periphery networks typical of over-the-counter markets in developed economies, China’s corporate bond market shows limited dealer intermediation. Designated dealers are reluctant to intermediate trades,and non-dealers supply the majority of liquidity, leading to wide price dispersion and low trading activity. This weak dealer participation is not driven by information asymmetry but stems from balance sheet constraints among smaller dealers and large state-owned banks’ privileged access to profitable lending opportunities.

We construct the most comprehensive bankruptcy database of Chinese firms to date and document significant real effects arising from the establishment of specialized bankruptcy courts. Specifically, the recovery rate for unsecured creditors increases by 38.6 percentage points after the reform. This improvement is not driven by shorter case durations or lower direct bankruptcy costs, as intuition might suggest. Instead, it results primarily from greater efficiency in the discovery and disposal of assets during bankruptcy proceedings. The reform also increases the likelihood of reorganization and promotes capital infusion in such cases. Higher recovery rates generate broader spillovers: reductions in non-performing loans, expansion of unsecured lending by local banks, relaxation of firms’ financial constraints, shifts in capital structure and investment, and greater public willingness to file for bankruptcy when distressed.

This paper studies the economic impact of introducing a personal bankruptcy regime, using China’s recent pilot reforms as a natural experiment. We exploit the staggered rollout of personal bankruptcy frameworks across Chinese cities and construct a novel dataset of bankruptcy case filings, combined with survey-based measures of credit access and official firm registration records. Our difference-in-differences estimates show that the reforms significantly improve small business credit access - business loan take-up increases by 1.3 % (21% relative to pre-reform mean), with no offsetting rise in interest rates. Effects are concentrated among non-corporate firms, firms with less employees and female entrepreneurs. Moreover, the reform is also associated with a 9.7% increase in new firm registrations. To interpret these findings, we develop a simple but novel theoretical model in which personal bankruptcy reduces the downside risk of entrepreneurial failure while preserving creditor recoveries. These findings underscore how debtor protection policies, when designed to reduce enforcement costs without expanding exemption rights, can enhance credit supply and entrepreneurial activity.

This study examines how firm-specific characteristics and monetary tightening influence the composition and dynamics of trade credit received by Chinese listed firms. Using panel data, the analysis distinguishes among three sources of trade credit: related parties, non-related parties, and controlling shareholders. The findings reveal a clear asymmetry in firms’ financing responses to monetary tightening: while trade credit from non-related parties declines, credit from related parties—especially controlling shareholders—increases. This underscores the strategic role of intra-group financing in buffering firms against external financial shocks during periods of constrained liquidity. Moreover, firm-specific factors such as size, profitability, market power, and ownership have differing effects depending on the source of trade credit. These effects are most pronounced when the credit is extended from controlling shareholders, reflecting the influence of intra-group trust and reduced information asymmetries. The results also highlight a substitute relationship between bank credit and trade credit, which weakens when trade credit is sourced from related parties and disappears entirely in the case of controlling shareholders. By shedding light on the distinct mechanisms of intra-group trade credit in China’s underdeveloped financial system, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of corporate financing strategies of Chinese firms.