COVID

  • 详情 Memory-induced Trading: Evidence from COVID-19 Quarantines
    This study investigates the role of contextual cues in memory-based decision-making within high-stakes trading environments. Using trade records from a large Chinese brokerage firm and a novel dataset on COVID-19 quarantines, we find that quarantine periods trigger the recall of previously traded stocks, increasing the likelihood of subsequent orders for those stocks. The observed patterns align more closely with similarity-based recall than with alternative channels. Welfare analysis reveals that these memory-induced trades lead to an annualized loss of approximately 70 percentage points for the representative investor's portfolio. We also find evidence at the market level: when the geographical distribution of quarantine risks is recalled, the probability of recalling the cross-sectional stock return-volume distribution from the same day increases by 1.6 percentage points. This study provides causal evidence from a real-world setting for memory-based theories, particularly similarity-based recall, and highlights a novel channel through which COVID-19 policies affect financial markets.
  • 详情 Effect Evaluation of the Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) System on the Health Care of the Elderly: A Review
    Background: How to cope with the rapid growth of LTC (long-term care) needs for the old people without activities of daily living (ADL), which is also a serious hazard caused by public health emergencies such as COVID-2019 and SARS (2003), has become an urgent task in China, Germany, Japan, and other aging countries. As a response, the LTCI (longterm care insurance) system has been executed among European countries and piloted in 15 cities of China in 2016. Subsequently, the influence and dilemma of LTCI system have become a hot academic topic in the past 20 years.Methods: The review was carried out to reveal the effects of the LTCI system on different economic entities by reviewing relevantliterature published from January 2008 to September 2019. The quality of 25 quantitative and 24 qualitative articles was evaluated using the JBI and CASP critical evaluation checklist, respectively. Results: The review systematically examines the effects of the LTCI system on different microeconomic entities such as caretakers or their families and macroeconomic entities such as government spending. The results show that the LTCI system has a great impact on social welfare. For example, LTCI has a positive effect on the health and life quality of the disabled elderly. However, the role of LTCI in alleviating the financial burden on families with the disabled elderly may be limited. Conclusion: Implementation of LTCI system not only in reducing the physical and mental health problems of health care recipients and providers, and the economic burden of their families, but also promote the development of health care service industry and further improvement of the health care system. However, the dilemma and sustainable development of the LTCI system is the government needs to focus on in the future due to the sustainability of its funding sources.
  • 详情 Does Uncertainty Matter in Stock Liquidity? Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic
    This paper utilizes the COVID-19 pandemic as an exogenous shock to investor uncertainty and examines the effect of uncertainty on stock liquidity. Analyzing data from Chinese listed firms, we find that stock liquidity dries up significantly in response to an increase in uncertainty resulting from regional pandemic exposure. The underlying reason for the decline in stock liquidity during the pandemic is a combination of earnings and information uncertainty. Funding constraints, market panic, risk aversion, inattention rationales, and macroeconomics factors are considered in our study. Our findings corroborate the substantial impact of uncertainty on market efficiency, and also add to the discussions on the pandemic effect on financial markets.
  • 详情 Local Travel Dynamics Surrounding the Zero-Covid Policy and Reopening in China
    As China’s Zero-COVID policy has come to an end and travel restrictions have been removed, the country’s mobility patterns are very likely to become more heterogeneous than during the pandemic. Human mobility is a key mechanism through which economic activities emerge and viruses spread. It can bring both advantages and challenges to cities with different characteristics. This paper investigates intra-city mobility trajectories of 368 Chinese cities within a non-linear time-varying latent factor framework to uncover the evolution of heterogeneity in local travel behavior amidst that China has been approaching the turning point of the post-pandemic new normal. To this end, we compiled a novel panel on a weekly basis, using the latest Baidu Mobility Data and the risk-level data released by the State Council of the People’s Republic of China. We further examine the effects of exposure to high COVID-19 risk in the city on commuting behavior between May 17, 2021 and June 26, 2022. Our results provide stylized facts on stratified local travel across China: first, the 368 cities can be categorized into six clusters based on their mobility dynamics, and second, the gaps in intra-city mobility tend to narrow within each cluster but widen between different clusters. Moreover, exposure to high COVID-19 risk has a stronger impact on home-workplace commuting rates than on dining-, leisure, and recreational travel rates, persistently dampening commuting behavior. In addition, divisions in intra-city travel strength and commuting behavior between western regions and the rest of China are evident. In sum, this paper suggests that the daily life and economic activities which depend heavily on human mobility are recovering at different rates across China.
  • 详情 FinTech and Consumption Resilience to Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Digital Wealth Management in China
    Developing countries are taking advantage of FinTech tools to provide more people with convenient access to financial market investment through digital wealth management. Using COVID-19 as an uncertainty shock, we examine whether and how digital wealth management affects the resilience of consumption to shocks based on a unique micro dataset provided by a leading Big Tech platform, Alipay in China. We find that digital wealth management mitigates the response of consumption to uncertainty shocks: residents who participate in digital wealth management, especially in risky asset investments, have a lower reduction in consumption. Importantly, digital wealth management helps improve financial inclusion, with a more pronounced mitigation effect among residents with lower-level wealth, living in less developed areas, and those with lower-level conventional finance accessibility. The mitigation effect works through the wealth channel: those who allocate a larger proportion of risky assets in their portfolio and obtain a higher realized return show more resilience of consumption to negative shocks. We also find that digital wealth management substitutes for conventional bank credit but serves as a complement to FinTech credit in smoothing consumption during uncertainty shocks. Digital wealth management provides a crucial way to improve financial inclusion and the resilience of consumption to shocks.
  • 详情 Creditor protection and asset-debt maturity mismatch: a quasi-natural experiment in China
    Recently, the Chinese Government has strengthened the enforcement of bankruptcy laws to protect creditors’ rights. This study shed light on the effect of creditor protection on asset-debt maturity mismatch by employing a quasi-natural experiment in China. The results show that creditor protection mitigates maturity mismatch, and the effect is more pronounced among financially constrained firms. Results remain robust after the dynamic effects test, placebo test, propensity score matching approach, entropy balancing method, and controlling for COVID-19 shocks. Mechanism tests show that creditor protection decreases the cost of debt and reduces over-investment. The effect of creditor protection is pronounced in private companies, financially independent companies, and companies with secured loans. Creditor rights can alleviate maturity mismatch in firms with medium ownership concentration and managerial ownership levels. Economic consequences studies suggest that creditor protection reduces corporate default risk. This study reveals the mechanism and effect of creditor protection on asset-debt maturity mismatch in emerging markets, providing recommendations to policymakers for assessing and improving bankruptcy law regimes.
  • 详情 COVID-19 exposure, financial flexibility, and corporate leverage adjustment
    This study examines how firm-level exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic affects the speed of leverage adjustment among 3260 US-listed firms from 2019q1 to 2022q1. Using a novel measure of COVID-19 exposure, we find that higher exposure significantly reduces the speed at which firms adjust their leverage towards target levels. This effect is more pronounced for financially constrained firms and those operating in competitive markets. We further show that COVID-19 exposure adversely impacts corporate liquidity, default risk, and financial flexibility. Our findings highlight the role of exogenous shocks in shaping corporate financing decisions.
  • 详情 Does Uncertainty Matter in Stock Liquidity? Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic
    This paper utilizes the COVID-19 pandemic as an exogenous shock to investor uncertainty and examines the effect of uncertainty on stock liquidity. Analyzing data from Chinese listed firms, we find that stock liquidity dries up significantly in response to an increase in uncertainty resulting from regional pandemic exposure. The underlying reason for the decline in stock liquidity during the pandemic is a combination of earnings and information uncertainty. Funding constraints, market panic, risk aversion, inattention rationales, and macroeconomics factors are considered in our study. Our findings corroborate the substantial impact of uncertainty on market efficiency, and also add to the discussions on the pandemic effect on financial markets.
  • 详情 The Temporal and Spillover Effects of Covid-19 on Stock Returns: Evidence from China's Provincial Data
    Based on 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in mainland China, this paper explores the temporal and spillover effects of the provincial COVID19 pandemic on stock returns. The results show that stock returns are significantly and negatively correlated both with the pandemic in the firm’s headquartered province (referred to as, local province), and the pandemics in other provinces (referred to as, non-local provinces). By multiple time dimensions analysis, we find that at the weekly (monthly) level, the impact of the pandemic in local province on stock returns is larger (weaker) than the pandemics in non-local provinces, showing the temporal (spillover) effects. Mechanism analysis shows that COVID-19 can quickly reduce investors’ attention to stock market. The heterogeneity analysis shows that firms owned by state, with bad CSR, or a higher proportion of shares held by the largest shareholder are more affected by COVID-19. After replacing samples and time intervals, the results remain robust.
  • 详情 Covid-19 and Preferences for Subway Proximity: Evidence from the Chinese Housing Market
    This paper investigates the impact of Covid-19 outbreak on households’ preferences for subway proximity, using housing transaction data from eight major cities with the highest metro commuting volumes. Contrary to what we expect from remote working which has been popular since Covid-19 outbreak, we find no evidence of a smaller housing price premium for subway proximity after the outbreak, based on a difference-in-difference empirical strategy.