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The commodity and financial characteristics of carbon emission allowances play a pivotal role within the Carbon Emission Trading Scheme (CETS). Evaluating the effectiveness of the scheme from the perspective of carbon price is critical, as it directly reflects the underlying value of carbon allowances. This study employs a time-varying Difference-in-Differences (DID) model, utilizing data from publicly listed enterprises in China over the period from 2010 to 2023, to examine the effects of carbon price level and stability on Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The results suggest that both an increase in carbon price level and stability contribute to improvements in TFP, particularly for heavy-polluting and non-stateowned enterprises. Mechanism analysis reveals that higher carbon prices and stability can stimulate corporate engagement in green innovation, activate the Porter effect, and subsequently enhance TFP. Furthermore, optimizing the system environment proves to be an effective means of strengthening the scheme's impact. The study also finds that allocating initial quotas via payment-based mechanisms offers a more effective design. This research highlights the importance of strengthening the financial attributes of carbon emission allowances and offers practical recommendations for increasing the activity of trading entities and improving market liquidity.

China faces significant environmental challenges, including reducing pollutants, improving environmental quality, and peaking carbon emissions. Industrial restructuring is key to achieving both emission reductions and economic transformation. This study uses the Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output model and multi-objective optimization to analyze pathways for China’s industrial transformation to synergistically reduce emissions. Our findings indicate that under a compromise scenario, China’s carbon emissions could stabilize at around 10.9 billion tonnes by 2030, with energy consumption controlled at approximately 5 billion tonnes. The Papermaking sector in Guangdong and the Chemicals sector in Shandong are expected to flourish, while the Coal Mining sector in Shanxi and the Communication Equipment sector in Jiangsu will see reductions. The synergy strength between carbon emission reduction and energy conservation is highest at 11%, followed by a 7% synergy between carbon emission and nitrogen oxide reduction. However, significant trade-offs are observed between carbon emission reduction and chemical oxygen demand, and ammonia nitrogen reduction targets at -9%. This comprehensive analysis at regional and sectoral levels provides valuable insights for advancing China’s carbon reduction and pollution control goals.

There is substantial evidence indicating that enterprises are negatively impacted by climate risk, with the most direct effects typically occurring in financial domains. This study examines A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2023, employing text analysis to develop the firm-level climate risk indicator and investigate the influence on corporate financial risk. The results show a significant positive correlation between climate risk and financial risk at the firm level. Mechanism analysis shows that the negative impact of climate risk on corporate financial condition is mainly achieved through three paths: increasing financial constraints, reducing inventory reserves, and increasing the degree of maturity mismatch. To address potential endogeneity, this study applies instrumental variable tests, propensity score matching, and a quasi-natural experiment based on the Paris Agreement. Additional tests indicate that reducing the degree of information asymmetry and improving corporate ESG performance can alleviate the negative impact of climate risk on corporate financial conditions. This relationship is more pronounced in high-carbon emission industries. In conclusion, this research deepens the understanding of the link between climate risk and corporate financial risk, providing a new micro perspective for risk management, proactive governance transformation, and the mitigation of financial challenges faced by enterprises.

We (re)evaluate the general-equilibrium effects of (environmental) policies from the perspectives of input-output networks and firm dynamics and heterogeneity. Using China’s carbon emission trading system (ETS) as an example, we find that ETS leads to more patent applications, especially the ones associated with low-carbon technologies in the targeted sectors. The effects are muted at the firm level due to selection effects, whereby only larger firms are significantly and positively affected. Meanwhile, larger firms occupy a small share in number but a large share of aggregate outcomes, contributing to the discrepancy between the effects of ETS at the individual firm and aggregate sector levels. The effects also diffuse in input-output networks, leading to more patents in upstream/downstream sectors. We build and estimate the first firm dynamics model with input-output linkages and regulatory policies in the literature and conduct policy experiments. ETS’s effects are amplified given input-output networks.

Under the guidance of the dual-carbon target, the development of the carbon financial system is of great significance to compensate for the gap between green and low-carbon investment. Considering the current state of the development of carbon financial system, China has initially formed a carbon financial system, including participants, carbon financial products and macro and micro operation structures, but the system is still in the initial development stage. Given the current restrictions on the development of carbon finance, it can be seen that there are still problems such as unreasonable economic structure, insufficient market construction, single product category, low utilization rate and urgent construction of relevant judicial guarantee system. Therefore, the system should be improved at the economic level and the legal level. The economic level includes adjusting the layout of economic development structure, strengthening the construction of market infrastructure, encouraging the diversification of carbon financial products and strengthening publicity and education promotion strategies. The legal level includes improving the top-level design, formulating judicial interpretation to promote carbon financial trading, promoting commercial law amendment, and promoting the linkage mechanism between specialized environmental justice and carbon finance and other safeguard measures. Finally, improving the carbon finance system is required to promote and protect the orderly development of carbon finance. To promote the reform of the pattern of economic development, the concept of ecological and environmental protection in the financial sector needs to be implemented to form an overall pattern of pollution reduction, carbon reduction and synergistic efficiency improvement.

This paper reconciles the debates on carbon return estimation by introducing the concept of equity duration. Our findings reveal that equity duration effectively captures the multifaceted effects of carbon transition risks. Regardless of whether carbon transition risks are measured by emission level or emission intensity, brown firms earn lower returns than green firms when the equity duration is long due to discount rate channel. This relationship reverses for short-duration firms conditional on the near-term cash flow. Our analysis underscores the pivotal role of carbon transitions' multifaceted effects on cash flow structures in understanding the pricing of carbon emissions.

Comprehensive evaluation and identification of the critical regulatory determinants of carbon emission efficiency (CEE) are very important for China’s low-carbon transition. Accordingly, this paper first employs an undesirable global super-hybrid measure approach to calculate the CEE of China’s iron and steel industry (ISI). We then further use spatial error and threshold regression models to examine the spatial and non-linear effects of heterogeneous environmental regulations on CEE, respectively. Our empirical results show that (1) CEE varies significantly across China’s regions, with the eastern region having the highest CEE score, followed by the western and central regions, with the northeast region ranking the lowest; (2) command-and-control and market-incentive regulations both promote CEE, whereas the public participation approach does not significantly contribute to performance gains; (3) all three types of environmental regulations exhibit a non-linear threshold effect on CEE; (4) openness level, technological progress, and industrial concentration enhance efficiency gains, while urbanization level exerts a negative impact on CEE. Our findings have important implications for the design of environmental regulations.

We (re)evaluate the general-equilibrium effects of (environmental) policies from the perspectives of input-output networks and firm dynamics and heterogeneity. Using China’s carbon emission trading system (ETS) as an example, we find that ETS leads to more patent applications, especially the ones associated with low-carbon technologies in the targeted sectors. The effects are muted at the firm level due to selection effects, whereby only larger firms are significantly and positively affected. Meanwhile, larger firms occupy a small share in number but a large share of aggregate outcomes, contributing to the discrepancy between the effects of ETS at the individual firm and aggregate sector levels. The effects also diffuse in input-output networks, leading to more patents in upstream/downstream sectors. We build and estimate the first firm dynamics model with input-output linkages and regulatory policies in the literature and conduct policy experiments. ETS’s effects are amplified given input-output networks.

This paper reconciles the debates on carbon return estimation by introducing the concept of equity duration. We demonstrate that emission level and emission intensity yield divergent results for green firms, driven by inherent data problems. Our findings reveal that equity duration effectively captures the multifaceted effects of carbon transition risks. Regardless of whether carbon transition risks are measured by emission level or emission intensity, brown firms earn lower returns than green firms when the equity duration is long. This relationship reverses for short-duration firms. Our analysis underscores the pivotal role of carbon transitions’ multifaceted effects on cash flow structures in understanding the pricing of carbon emissions.