China

  • 详情 Chinese Consumption Shocks and U.S. equity returns
    Motivated by the growing importance of the Chinese domestic economy for the global economic condition, we test whether the consumption risk of China matters for the cross-section of U.S. equity returns. We find that the two-factor international assetpricing model with both U.S. and Chinese consumption risk explains 40% of the crosssectional variation in U.S. equity returns. We also find a sizable risk premium of 7.08% per annum. This finding is robust to different estimation approaches, portfolio groups, controlling for other equity factors, and using individual equities. For economic mechanism, we find that it is the discount rate channel that is related to investors’ risk aversion, sentiment, and economic uncertainty through which Chinese consumption matters for the U.S. equity returns. Also, the result is not entirely driven by Chinese investors participating in the U.S. Overall, we present equity market-based novel evidence of the importance of Chinese macro fundamentals for the U.S.
  • 详情 Maturity Mismatch, Financialisation, and Productivity: Evidence from China
    Efficient enterprise development plays a crucial role in the achievement of economic efficiency, which is reflected in the improvement of total factor productivity (TFP). This study examines the effect of corporate maturity mismatch on TFP and explores whether financialisation influences this relationship. This study uses data from Chinese A-share listed non-financial enterprises from 2007 to 2019. We find that maturity mismatch negatively impacts TFP through performance inhibition, agency costs, and capital allocation efficiency reduction. Additionally, we find that financialisation positively moderates the negative effect of corporate maturity mismatch on TFP, and the effect is more pronounced when a firm has higher risk-bearing capacity and greater governance efficiency. We use two-stage least squares to demonstrate the robustness of our results.
  • 详情 Bargaining Power and Trade Credit: The Heterogeneous Effect of Credit Contractions
    High-bargaining-power (low-bargaining-power) customer (supplier) firms borrow (lend) more trade credit according to the literature. We study whether this bargaining power effect strengthens or weakens when the credit supply tightens. We construct a Nash bargaining model of trade credit and show that the bargaining power effect weakens if their financing costs increase more than that of the customers. We find support for our theory using a unique database of listed firms in China that discloses firms’ transaction information with important customers and suppliers. Interest-rate sensitive suppliers, proxied by a non-state ownership, a high debt rollover risk, and a high financial constraint index, reduce trade credit to their high-bargaining-power customers during credit contractions.
  • 详情 Spillover Effect or Siphon Effect? —Quasi-Experimental Research on Investment in China's Pilot Free Trade Zones
    In the international context of the surging tide of anti-globalization, China will raise the establishment of pilot free trade zone as a national strategy, and achieve the goal of promoting highquality economic growth through a series of reform measures, such as promoting investment liberalization and facilitation, improving investment promotion and protection mechanisms, and improving the level of overseas investment cooperation. To study the role of the pilot free trade zones on investment, the panel data of 46 cities from 2005 to 2018 are used to empirically test the investment growth effect and investment spillover effect of the pilot free trade zones by using the Difference-in-Differences Spatial Dubin Model. The results show that the pilot free trade zones can significantly promote investment growth and have a spillover effect on investment in surrounding areas. Through the grouping regression of the eastern, central, and western regions, it is found that the eastern pilot free trade zones have the most obvious investment spillover effect on the surrounding areas, and the central pilot free trade zones have a siphon effect on the investment in the surrounding areas. In addition, different batches of pilot free trade zones or the same batch of pilot free trade zones have different investment spillover effects on surrounding areas at different time points. Finally, policy suggestions are put forward: strengthen the strategic implementation of the pilot free trade zones, improve the spatial radiation mechanism, promote linkage development and differentiated development, and make the pilot free trade zones better promote investment growth and investment spillover.
  • 详情 ESG rating and labor income share: Firm-level evidence
    This study investigates the relationship between ESG (environmental, social, and governance) ratings and labor share at the firm level. Using data from Chinese A-share listed firms from 2011 to 2021, we find a significantly positive relationship between the two. Furthermore, we document that state-owned enterprises do not demonstrate a strong sense of political and social responsibility in their employee recruitment projects, while companies with high ESG ratings in East China could increase their labor share due to less stringent financial constraints. Finally, the employment-creation effect of ESG ratings is one of the important channels for improving labor share. Considering the increasing awareness of ESG concepts and the boom in ESG investing, our findings hold significant relevance for employees, directors, investors, and public policymakers.
  • 详情 Land Allocation and Industrial Agglomeration: Evidence from the 2007 Reform in China
    This paper highlights the crucial role of land allocation mechanisms in promoting industrial agglomeration by examining China’s 2007 industrial land market reform. By introducing transparency into the land-selling process, the reform facilitated more buyers to compete for land (reflected by increased land sale prices), enabling local governments to allocate land to the most suitable users. Combining comprehensive data sets that include information on initial local industrial structure, new industrial establishments, and industrial land transactions, the empirical analysis finds that the reform significantly increased the entry of firms from industries aligned with local specialization, particularly in areas that implemented the reform more strictly. A back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates a 1.3% increase in the national average total factor productivity of new entrants over three years post-reform due to a better match between new entrants and local industry specialization. Supporting evidence demonstrates the reform’s positive effect on economic growth (reflected in changes in nighttime lights), potentially through increasing local firms’ TFP.
  • 详情 Can Local Fintech Development Improve Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy? Evidence from China
    This paper investigates the impact of local fintech development on analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy. We use the method of web text mining to construct the local fintech development index for empirical test and find that local fintech development significantly improves analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy by promoting firm digital transformation, improving firm information transparency, and alleviating the information asymmetry between firms and outsiders. Furthermore, this effect is more significant for analysts without equity pledge associations and those with weaker buy-side pressure. This study shows that local fintech development can optimize the capital market information environment.
  • 详情 The Impact of Factoring Business Announcements on the Stock Market Value of Listed Companies
    Factoring financing is the most widely used form of supply chain finance, which has been adopted by more and more enterprises. The existing literature focuses on the motivation of suppliers to adopt factoring financing and the factors that affect the development of factoring. However, little attention is paid to the results of factoring. This study uses the event study method, draws on the Extended Resource based theory (ERBT), discussing how the factoring business announcement affects the stock market value of listed companies from the perspective of competitive advantage and the firm's own characteristics. By manually collecting 205 factoring business announcements from 115 Chinese listed companies from October 2019 to December 2022, we found that: (1) from the perspective of competitive advantage, the announcement of factoring business by non-Combination of Industry and Finance enterprises or their holding enterprises has more positive impact on the stock price of the enterprises. There is no obvious relationship between the size of factoring quota and stock price. (2) From the perspective of the enterprise's own characteristics, the announcement of factoring business by state-owned enterprises and small-scale enterprises can have a positive impact on the stock price of the enterprise. Before and after the Civil Code came into effect, there was no significant difference in the relationship between factoring business announcements and stock prices. This study uses secondary data to fill the gap in the study of the impact of factoring announcements on stock market value. This paper discusses the relationship between factoring business announcement and stock market value from the perspective of competitive advantage for the first time, providing theoretical guidance for managers to adopt factoring business under what circumstances. In addition, this study also provides documentation for the empirical study of factoring business announcements in China.
  • 详情 Identification of High-Tech Enterprises, Supplier Relationship Management and Corporate Innovation: Evidence From China
    We examine the effect of the identification of high-tech enterprises on corporate innovation from the perspective of supplier relationship management. We use data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies in China from 2007 to 2020 as samples and a time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) method. The results show that the identification of high-tech enterprises significantly promotes corporate innovation. The potential mechanism is that there is a sharp decline in the concentration of suppliers, the occupation of suppliers’ trade credit, and the inventory cost of enterprise after getting the identification of high-tech enterprises. Further analyses show that the enterprise identified as a high-tech enterprise tends to be more innovative due to the improvement of the supplier relationship management, leading to a better operating performance. Overall, our findings indicates a positive implementation effect of the policy of identification of high-tech enterprises. This paper not only contributes to the research about the economic consequences of the identification of high-tech enterprises from the perspective of supplier relationship management, but also enriches the existing literature on the effect of the supply relationship on corporate innovation, and supplier relationship management from the perspective of identification of high-tech enterprises. In summary, this study provides a theoretical basis and policy reference for the evaluation of the implementation effect of the policy of identification of high-tech enterprises, and the strengthening of supplier relationship management .
  • 详情 Place-Based Innovation Policies and China's Patent Boom: Promotion vs. Distortion?
    The past three decades have witnessed the boom of patents and mounting place-based innovation policies (PIPs) in China. However, the PIP-innovation nexus, particularly the distortion effect and underlying mechanisms, remains poorly understood. Matching micro-level patent data and industrial firm data, we documented a promotion effect of PIPs on local firm innovation measured by both patent quantity and quality. Moreover, we observed a distortion effect on patent quality following the 2008 crisis, primarily originating from privately owned enterprises rather than stateowned ones. Drawing from theories of technological learning and the unique institutional characteristics of PIPs in China, we have further unpacked the underlying mechanisms driving these effects: Both industry-academia collaboration and foreign direct investment play significant roles in the PIP-innovation nexus, and the latter appears to be particularly influential in causing the distortion effect. Additionally, our analysis has revealed that preferential policies, such as patent subsidies and reductions in land prices, are instrumental in enabling PIPs to exert their impact.