Hyman Minsky (1919–1996), a prominent post-Keynesian economist, argued that capitalist financial systems are inherently unstable. During prolonged prosperity, firms and financial institutions increase leverage and adopt more fragile forms of financing, shifting from hedge to speculative and Ponzi finance. This gradual buildup of financial fragility can eventually trigger a sudden collapse of asset values—later termed a “Minsky moment.” After the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, Minsky’s ideas gained renewed attention, and current financial developments once again bring his insights to the forefront.

This study examines the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the stock price crash risk of Chinese commercial banks. In addition, it explores how Governance and Digital Transparency curtail the effect of EPU on stock price crash risk. Using a sample of 50 Chinese A-share-listed banks from 2012 to 2024, the study reveals that EPU significantly increased the banks’ stock price crash risk. The findings are robust to alternative measures of EPU and stock price crash risk. Further, governance and FinTech adoption mitigate the positive effect. The mitigating effect persists across high- and low-risk bank subsamples. In addition, we perform a battery of analyses to support our main findings. These findings have important theoretical and practical implications.

This paper examines the use of finance leases in China’s local government debt. Using a unique dataset of government finance lease transactions, we document that local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) rapidly adopted finance leases, with the outstanding amount growing from virtually nothing in 2013 to a cumulative total of 1.02 trillion RMB by 2018. Our difference-in-differences (DID) analysis reveals that the central government’s restrictive financial policies account for a substantial portion of this surge. Because these restrictive policies confined LGFVs’access to conventional borrowing channels, finance leases emerged as a key alternative, particularly through bank-affiliated leasing firms. While LGFVs' use of finance leases offers low-cost financing for local governments, the low quality of the underlying assets poses significant risks to the leasing firms.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission is allowing firms to use externally financed funds for share repurchases, a recent measure to enable listed companies address valuation pressures and protect investors; however, its implications for corporate marketing decisions remain unclear. Using an event sample of Chinese listed firms that conducted open-market repurchases between 2009 and 2024, this study empirically examines how this market activity financed by different sources influence marketing decisions and explores the underlying mechanisms. The findings show that compared with firms using internal cash for repurchases, those relying on debt financing are inclined to resist myopic marketing decisions, and this negative relationship is pronounced under high analyst coverage and when privately owned listed firms are controlled by family entrepreneurs. These results remain robust after replacing the dependent variables and applying propensity score matching. Overall, this study shows that debt financing to support share repurchases has a long-term beneficial governance impact as it improves earnings quality and protects investor interests, and offers a new perspective on the relationship between financing-based repurchases and marketing myopia, and provides useful policy insights for evaluating the effectiveness of China’s refinancing regulations related to share repurchases, while guiding further refinement.

Whether risk aversion is time varying and countercyclical is central to modern asset pricing, yet evidence remains limited and is based mainly on experimental, survey, or aggregate stock market data. We provide individual-level evidence from 10 million Chinese auto insurance contracts from 2011 to 2017, estimating policyholders’ risk aversion from deductible choices. We find that risk aversion is time varying and countercyclical. The estimates are negatively related to lottery and stock trading, positively related to insurance sales and bond trading, and vary with psychological factors, including seasonal mood, “zodiac year,” and calendar events.

This paper constructs a call pressure index (CP) from China's SSE 50 ETF option market and finds a robust U-shaped nonlinear predictability for directional option returns as measured by log returns. The effect reflects that extreme call pressures—whether unusually low (reversal) or high (momentum)—contain information, while moderate levels are dominated by noise trading. Robustness checks using delta-hedged returns confirm that predictability stems primarily from directional exposure rather than volatility dynamics. The predictability is stronger in high-volatility and down-market states and survives controlling for implied skewness, variance risk premium, and other common predictors. A simple timing strategy based on rolling-window forecasts achieves a Sharpe ratio of 0.97, which further increases to 2.43 after applying a prediction threshold. A parsimonious volume-based indicator captures unique predictive information beyond complex proxies, offering a feasible path for emerging markets lacking proprietary order flow data.

This paper studies whether financial technology (FinTech) changes loan contract design by reducing banks’ reliance on collateral in corporate lending. Using loan-level data on Chinese listed firms from 2007 to 2023 and exploiting the People’s Bank of China’s 2019 FinTech Development Plan as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that banks with stronger pre-policy FinTech capability significantly reduce secured lending after the policy shock. In the benchmark specification, the probability that a loan is secured falls by 1.64 percentage points, or about 2.7% relative to the baseline secured-loan share. The result is robust to alternative loan classifications, matching procedures, alternative measures of FinTech adoption, aggregated lending outcomes, and alternative inference procedures. The pattern is more pronounced among small and medium-sized enterprises, lower-tier branches, and branches located outside bank headquarters’ cities, where borrower information is likely to be more limited. Supplementary analyses are consistent with FinTech reducing banks’ information-production costs and suggest that technological proximity to FinTech-active peers may amplify the collateral-reducing effect. Overall, the evidence indicates that FinTech can enhance banks’ screening capacity and shift lending decisions away from reliance on asset-based guarantees toward information-based credit assessment.

This paper identifies the marginal investors in China’s stock market and examines their impact on stock pricing. To clearly distinguish between the equity constraint channel and the debt constraint channel, we construct the capital ratio factor and the debt constraint factor for banks and securities companies, the two most critical financial intermediaries in China’s stock market. Our results demonstrate that banks indeed serve as marginal investors and influence stock market efficiency primarily through the equity capital constraint channel. Furthermore, we find that the bank capital ratio factor significantly explains stock mispricing in China, with the single-factor model based on bank equity capital producing substantially smaller pricing errors compared to traditional multi-factor models.

The Full Guaranteed Purchase System began to replace the subsidy system as the core policy for promoting renewable energy integration, designating grid companies as the sole entity responsible for the physical integration of renewable energy. Meanwhile, the Tradable Green Certificates system provides environmental benefits for renewable power generators through market mechanisms. Therefore, exploring the strategic choices of various entities under the dual policy interventions, and uncovering the mechanisms for realizing electricity energy value and green value under different integration models, is of great significance for advancing China’s renewable energy integration. Based on China’s actual conditions, this study integrates the features of both policies and constructs a three-party evolutionary game model involving government, power generators, and grid enterprises to simulate their interactions and identify key factors influencing strategic choices. The results show that active government regulation effectively encourages positive strategies from both generators and grid companies, and that active power integration by grid companies further promotes green power generation. A “stepwise complementary” relationship exists among reputation gains, reputation losses, and regulatory costs: higher reputation gains can offset decision-making resistance arising from increased regulatory costs. Green power generation costs and innovation costs have significant negative effects on strategic choices, while the guaranteed purchase price has a significant positive effect on generators’ active strategies. The penalty parameter plays a key positive role in grid companies’ active strategies, and the guaranteed purchase price significantly influences their active integration behavior. This paper provides recommendations for motivating all entities actively participate in the consumption process.

This paper examines the spillover effects of China’s Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme (CETS) on non-regulated firms’ bank loans. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms and a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that suppliers experience a significant decline in bank loans when their customers are included in the CETS. This effect is driven by reductions in firms’ cash flow and customer concentration. The negative effect of downstream CETS on suppliers’ bank loans is attenuated for suppliers with better environmental performance, more comprehensive carbon disclosure, and closer geographic proximity to customers. We also find that, in response to reduced bank credit, firms rely more heavily on trade credit. Overall, this study sheds new light on the unintended financial consequences of CETS policy on non-regulated firms.