China

  • 详情 How Do Developers Influence the Transaction Costs of China's Prefabricated Housing Development Process? -Investigation Through Bayesian Belief Network Approach
    The implementation of prefabricated housing (PH) has become prevalent in China recently because of its advantages in improving production efficiency and saving energy. However, the benefits of adopting PH cannot always be accrued by the stakeholders because of the arising transaction costs (TCs) in the projects’ development process. This study investigates the strategies for developers to make rational choices for minimizing the TCs of the PH project considering their own attributes and external constraints. A Bayesian Belief Network model was applied as the analytical method, based on the surveys in China. The single sensitive analysis indicated that developers influence the TCs of PH through the three most impactful factors: Prefabrication rate, PH experience, and Contract payment method. Furthermore, combined strategies were recommended for developers in various situations based on the multiple sensitivity analysis. Developers facing high prefabrication rate challenges are suggested to reduce the risks by procuring high-qualified general contractors and adopting unit-price contracts type. For developers with limited PH experience, adopting the Engineering-Procurement-Construction procurement method is the most efficient in reducing their TCs in the context of China’s PH market. This study contributes to the current body of knowledge concerning the effect of traders’ attributes and choices on TCs, expanding the application of TCs theory and fulfilling the study on the determinants of TCs in construction management.
  • 详情 The Market Value of Generative AI: Evidence from China Market
    Our study explored the rise of public companies competing to launch large language models (LLMs) in the Chinese stock market after ChatGPTs' success. We analyzed 25 companies listed on the Chinese Stock Exchange and discovered that the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) was high up to 3% before LLMs' release, indicating a positive view from insiders. However, CAR dropped to around 1.5% after their release. Early LLM releases had better market reactions, especially those focused on customer service, design, and education. Conversely, LLMs dedicated to IT and civil service received negative feedback.
  • 详情 Measurement and Evaluation of the Efficiency of Carbon Emission Trading Markets in China
    Taking the national carbon market and seven local carbon markets in China, we use DEA model to measure market efficiency, and then classify them by hierarchical cluster method. Efficiency of the national carbon market and local carbon markets of Beijing, Shenzhen, Hubei and Shanghai are leading, while Guangdong is in the middle; Chongqing and Tianjin are left behind. Room for improvement and scale returns are further analyzed, and suggestions for each carbon market are proposed finally.
  • 详情 Release of Information at Shareholder Meetings in China: Have Regulatory Changes Increased Their Information Content?
    This paper studies how regulatory changes affect investors’ reactions at shareholder meetings in China. The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to analyse the information content transmitted to the shareholders of the largest Chinese companies listed on the China Securities Index 300 when an Annual General Meeting is held. A distinction is made between ordinary and extraordinary general meetings. Second, to find out if regulatory changes related to the Company Law of China and online voting in Annual General Meetings affect the information content of those meetings. The abnormal return obtained is examined through an event study using the Fama-French five-factor model. The results of our study indicate that the release of information and involvement of minority shareholders in general meetings during the research period led to higher return volatility and traded volume.
  • 详情 How Do Online Media Affect Cash Dividends? Evidence from China
    Using a comprehensive dataset for Chinese listed companies from 2009 to 2021, we find that online media is negatively associated with cash dividend level, and the proportion of positive news has a negative moderating effect on this relationship. Our results support the "information intermediary" effect and exclude the "external governance" and "market pressure" effects. We further propose that online media weakens the positive relationship between cash dividends and past earnings (rather than the future), indicating that cash dividends contain signals of improvement in past earnings and are replaced by online news. We also find that only firms with more positive news pay dividends that have signaling effects, and there is a synergistic effect between positive news and dividend signal. Additional results show that the effect of online media on dividend policy is more pronounced than traditional media, which has almost no influence. Our main conclusions remain valid after addressing potential endogeneity issues and conducting various robustness tests.
  • 详情 Does Competition Reduce Moral Hazard in the Credit Market? Evidence from China's Rural Commercial Banks
    We examine the dynamic connection between competition and bank risk within the credit market through the lens of moral hazard affecting banks and borrowers. By combining the perspectives of “competition-fragility” and “competition-stability”, we reveal the intricate influence that competition exercises over bank risk in this financial landscape. Our research scrutinizes these theoretical constructs empirically, drawing upon a dataset comprising 236 rural commercial banks in China from 2012 to 2020. The findings indicate a curvilinear relationship between competition and bank risk, as an inverted U-shape. Furthermore, competition plays a dual role - it improves borrowers’ moral hazard dilemma while exacerbating it for banks. This highlights both riskshifting and risk-margin effects within the competitive dynamics. Ultimately, the nonlinear association between competition and bank risk emerges due to the intricate interplay between the moral hazard factors affecting borrowers and banks.
  • 详情 Does Corporate Social Responsibility Affect Stock Liquidity? Evidence from China
    This study investigates whether and how corporate social responsibility (CSR) affects stock liquidity. Utilizing panel data from 3,366 Chinese enterprises spanning 2010 to 2021, empirical findings suggest that CSR endeavors facilitate an uplift in stock liquidity. Specifically, a 1% increase in CSR score will improve stock liquidity by 0.128%. The research further reveals that media coverage and corporate operations are crucial channels for CSR to affect stock liquidity, with the former playing a more dominant role. Notably, the bolstering effect of CSR on stock liquidity is amplified during periods of increasing economic policy uncertainty. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the influence of CSR on stock liquidity is particularly salient in state-owned enterprises. Additionally, different CSR subcategories (shareholder responsibility, employee responsibility, and social responsibility) vary in their effect on stock liquidity. Shareholder and employee responsibilities both enhance stock liquidity, with the impact of shareholder liability being particularly pronounced.
  • 详情 Can social credit system construction improve enterprise innovation? Evidence from China
    The progression of the social credit system is crucial for fostering enterprise innovation and elevating the quality of economic development. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of establishing demonstration cities for the social credit system, this study delves into whether the construction of a social credit system can indeed foster enterprise innovation. Our findings indicate that the establishment of demonstration cities for social credit system promotes enterprise innovation and improves the quality of innovation. Furthermore, mechanism test shows that it alleviates financing constraints faced by enterprises, leading to an increase in the scale and maturity of corporate loans, ultimately fostering corporate innovation. Further analysis of heterogeneity highlights that this positive impact is particularly evident in non-state-owned enterprises and those facing severe financing constraints. These findings present insights that the pivotal role of informal institutions, such as the social credit system, in facilitating the upgrading of industrial structures and augmenting the quality of economic development.
  • 详情 Are Trend Factor in China? Evidence from Investment Horizon Information
    This paper improves the expected return variable and the corresponding trend factor documented by Han, Zhou, and Zhu (2016) and reveals the incremental predictability of this novel expected return measure on stock returns in the Chinese stock market. Portfolio analyses and ffrm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate a signiffcantly positive relation between the improved expected return and future returns. These results are robust to the short-, intermediate-, and long-term price trends and other derived expected returns. Our improved trend factor also outperforms all trend factors constructed by other expected returns. Additionally, we observe that lottery demand, capital states, return synchronicity, investor sentiment and information uncertainty can help explain the superior performance of the improved expected return measure in the Chinese stock market.
  • 详情 From Credit Information to Credit Data Regulation: Building an Inclusive Sustainable Financial System in China
    A lack of sufficient information about potential borrowers is a major obstacle to access to financing from the traditional financial sector. In response to the need for better information to prevent fraud, to increase access to finance and to support balanced sustainable development, countries around the world have moved over the past several decades to develop credit information reporting requirements and systems to improve the coverage and quality of credit information. Until recently, such requirements mainly covered only banks. However, with the process of digital transformation in China and around the world, a range of new credit providers have emerged, in the context of financial technology (FinTech, TechFin and BigTech). Application of advanced data and analytics technologies provides major opportunities for both market participants – both traditional and otherwise – as well as for credit information agencies: by utilizing advanced technologies, participants and credit reporting agencies can collect massive amounts of information from various online and other activities (‘Big Data’), which contributes to the analysis of borrowing behavior and improves the accuracy of creditworthiness assessments, thereby enhancing availability of finance and supporting growth and development while also moderating prudential, behavioral and conduct related concerns at the heart of financial regulation. Reflecting international experience, China has over the past three decades developed a regulatory regime for credit information reporting and business. However, even in the context of traditional banking and credit, it has not come without problems. With the rapid growth and development of FinTech, TechFin and BigTech lenders, however, have come both real opportunities to leverage credit information and data but also real challenges around its regulation. For example, due to fragmented sources of borrower information and the involvement of many players of different types, there are difficulties in clarifying the business scope of credit reporting and also serious problems in relation to customer protection. Moreover, inadequate incentives for credit information and data sharing pose a challenge for regulators to promote competition and innovation in the credit market. Drawing upon the experiences of other jurisdictions, including the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, Singapore and Hong Kong, this paper argues that China should establish a sophisticated licensing regime and setout differentiated requirements for credit reporting agencies in line with the scope and nature of their business, thus addressing potential for regulatory arbitrage. Further, there is a need to formulate specific rules governing the provision of customer information to credit reporting agencies and the resolution of disputes arising from the accuracy and completeness of credit data. An effective information and data sharing scheme should be in place to help lenders make appropriate credit decisions and facilitate access to finance where necessary. The lessons from China’s experience in turn hold key lessons for other jurisdictions as they move from credit information to credit data regulation in their own financial systems.