Chinese New Year

  • 详情 Gambling Preference and the New Year Effect of Assets with Lottery Features
    This paper shows that a New Year’s gambling preference of individual investors impacts prices and returns of assets with lottery features. January call options, especially the out-of-the-money calls, have higher retail demand and are the most expensive and actively traded. Lottery-type stocks outperform their counterparts in January but tend to underperform in other months. Retail sentiment is more bullish in lottery-type stocks in January than in other months. Furthermore, lottery-type Chinese stocks outperform in the Chinese New Year’s Month but not in January. This New Year effect pro- vides new insights into the broad phenomena related to the January effect.
  • 详情 The February anomaly in China: The Case of Chinese New Year
    This paper finds that Chinese stocks rise in February instead of January. Further analysis shows that the February premium is attributed to the Chinese New Year. We propose an alternative explanation for this premium based on liquidity preference, i.e., investors prefer holding liquid assets before the holiday and illiquid assets after the holiday. We find a substantial decrease in monetary base and increase in market activity after the Chinese New Year. The empirical fact that the Chinese New Year effect is particularly strong for stocks with low institutional holdings also supports this hypothesis.