Crime Rates

  • 详情 Winners and Losers: Firm, Labor, and Crime Responses to China's Coal Capacity Reduction Policy
    This paper examines the effects of China's 2016 coal capacity reduction policy on firms, local labor markets, and crime. We find that the policy substantially reduced the asset size and employment of coal firms in treated cities while simultaneously increasing their profitability and lowering debt. Policy-induced layoffs generated adverse spillovers in local labor markets, reducing residents' incomes, worsening public perceptions of job opportunities, and increasing divorce rates. These labor market effects were most pronounced among older and less-educated individuals. Employment also shifted away from the mining sector toward wholesale and retail trade and real estate-related industries. In addition, the policy led to an increase in crime, driven primarily by property offenses committed by individual offenders, while violent crime remained largely unchanged. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the increase in coal firms' profits exceeded the fiscal resources required for worker resettlement.
  • 详情 Mobile Payment Use and Crime Reduction
    This study investigates the influence of mobile payment application use on crime rates. Using a unique database of verdicts from criminal courts in China and an index measuring the extent of mobile payment usage, we find that a one standard deviation increase in mobile payment adoption and usage leads to an 11% decrease in the theft rate. Furthermore, the effect of widespread mobile payment adoption on theft rates is more pronounced in areas characterized by a higher prevalence of cash transactions. These findings suggest that the decrease in cash circulation in society due to mobile payment use can reduce incentives for theft. However, we do not find evidence linking mobile payment usage to other types of criminal activity, including robbery, arson, brawling, homicide, and serious injury by vehicle.
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