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  • 详情 Overwork Intensity and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Evidence from Satellite Nighttime Lights in China
    Overwork intensity (OI) is a salient issue that directly affects employees’ motivation and productivity. By using a novel dataset of overwork intensity constructed from daily high-resolution nightlight satellite images, we examine whether overwork intensity is a priced risk in the cross-section of stock returns. We show that a zero-investment portfolio that buys the highest OI quintile stocks and shorts the lowest OI quintile stocks earns 0.495% returns per month. This result is robust when controlling for various well-known risk factors. We argue and empirically verify that profftability, corporate governance, investor sentiment and lottery preference are the potential channels that drive the result.
  • 详情 The Externalities of Foreign Investor Disclosure
    We examine the influence of foreign equity flows on China's unique retail-dominated stock market, identifying a novel channel through which investors’ herding creates significant market externalities. We find that the daily disclosure of foreign investors' positions induces local investors to imitate these trades, resulting in observable short-term price distortions followed by reversals. Our analyses, which include inflow predictability tied to disclosure timing and path analysis decomposition, confirm that the herding effect, largely driven by retail participants, is more impactful than the direct effect based on the informational content of foreign capital. Furthermore, inflated stock prices resulting from the herding behavior cause public firms to overvalue and overinvest, leading to reduced investment efficiencies. These findings highlight potential adverse consequences stemming from specific stock market liberalization designs.
  • 详情 Finding Core Balanced Modules in Statistically Validated Stock Networks
    Traditional threshold-based stock networks suffer from subjective parameter selection and inherent limitations: they constrain relationships to binary representations, failing to capture both correlation strength and negative dependencies. To address this, we introduce statistically validated correlation networks that retain only statistically significant correlations via a rigorous t-test of Pearson coefficients. We then propose a novel structure termed the largest strong-correlation balanced module (LSCBM), defined as the maximum-size group of stocks with structural balance (i.e., positive edge-sign products for all triplets) and strong pairwise correlations. This balance condition ensures stable relationships, thus facilitating potential hedging opportunities through negative edges. Theoretically, within a random signed graph model, we establish LSCBM’s asymptotic existence, size scaling, and multiplicity under various parameter regimes. To detect LSCBM efficiently, we develop MaxBalanceCore, a heuristic algorithm that leverages network sparsity. Simulations validate its efficiency, demonstrating scalability to networks of up to 10,000 nodes within tens of seconds. Empirical analysis demonstrates that LSCBM identifies core market subsystems that dynamically reorganize in response to economic shifts and crises. In the Chinese stock market (2013–2024), LSCBM’s size surges during high-stress periods (e.g., the 2015 crash) and contracts during stable or fragmented regimes, while its composition rotates annually across dominant sectors (e.g., Industrials and Financials).
  • 详情 A Multilayer Network Approach to Identifying Investors' Echo Chambers in Chinese Stock Forums (Guba)
    This study develops a comprehensive methodological framework for identifying and quantifying investor echo chambers in online stock discussion forums. Motivated by a dynamic model of endogenous echo chamber formation, which formalizes how investors optimally allocate attention and update beliefs under cognitive and informational constraints, we construct a two-layer multiplex investor network that integrates common-attention similarity and semantic similarity to jointly capture the informational and cognitive linkages among investors. This framework enables the systematic examination of how shared information sources and convergent opinions emerge within investor communities. We compute both community-level and individual-level (node-level) echo-chamber intensity by integrating measures of social homophily, semantic reinforcement, and community insularity. At the firm level, we further aggregate these micro-level indicators using attention-weighted indices, community concentration (HHI), and semantic polarization metrics to characterize how echo-chamber dynamics manifest in firm-related discussions. In addition, we propose a general empirical panel framework to examine the relationship between investor echo-chamber intensity and firm-level outcomes. Overall, this paper provides a methodological foundation for the broader Investors’ Echo Chamber Project, offering scalable tools for network-based behavioral analysis and laying the groundwork for future research linking online social dynamics, financial market efficiency, and corporate decision-making.
  • 详情 Reversion Speed in Trading Volume as a Proxy for Informational Efficiency: A Case Study of China
    This study investigates the mean-reversion behavior of trading volume, using China’s A-share market as a representative setting characterized by dispersed retail investors, frequent public disclosures, and active policy interventions. We compare two competing interpretations:the stealth-trading hypothesis, in which persistent volume reflects order-splitting by informed investors, and the informational efficiency hypothesis, which links faster volume reversion to more effective information processing. Using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) model, we estimate reversion speeds for over 3,000 stocks and relate these to firm- and industry-level characteristics. We find that trading volume is broadly mean-reverting, with over 98% of stocks exhibiting stationarity. The OU model forecasts reversion speed with less than 7% error. Faster reversion is associated with larger firm size, greater analyst coverage, lower volatility, and higher liquidity. Notably, reversion speed increased after accounting reforms but declined following capital access liberalization, suggesting that regulatory policy can both enhance and impair informational efficiency. These findings position reversion speed as an observable proxy for market responsiveness and highlight trading volume as a central variable in empirical market microstructure research.
  • 详情 Investment Style Convergence and Window Dressing Behavior of Fund Managers
    This study constructs a three-dimensional space model based on fund investment styles, using a sample of open-end equity and mixed funds from 2005 to 2021 to measure the degree of style convergence. The research explores how style convergence impacts fund managers’ window dressing behavior. The results indicate that, after accounting for the effects of fund performance, style convergence exacerbates window dressing behavior among fund managers. Specifically, this is reflected in fund managers increasing their holdings in winning stocks and selling off losing stocks, which indirectly highlights the intense competition within China’s open-end fund industry. The findings remain robust after a series of endogeneity and robustness tests. Further analysis reveals that style convergence contributes to the risk of client attrition, thereby intensifying the agency problem within the fund industry. The window dressing effect due to style convergence is particularly pronounced in funds managed by individuals with lower educational backgrounds, lower investment skills, smaller family sizes, and lower institutional investor ownership. The paper offers valuable insights into the agency problems arising from investment style convergence and provides guidance for mitigating fund managers' self-interested behavior.
  • 详情 How Institutional Investors Impact Stocks? Evidence from Chinese Mutual Funds
    This study investigates how mutual funds impact the stock market by ana-lyzing the relationship between mutual fund investment behaviours (holding and trading) and stock returns and realized volatility in the Chinese market. It is found that stocks widely held or bought by mutual funds can earn higher excess returns, and more importantly, the trading measures out-perform the holding measures, which is evident by the portfolio analysis and Fama-MacBeth regressions. Moreover, the proportional holding, pro-portional trading and shares trading measures positively and significantly predict future realized volatility. Meanwhile, a weak asymmetric effect in the share-trade measure is found.
  • 详情 Digital mergers and acquisitions, digital resource empowerment and corporate market value: Evidence from China
    Digital mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are increasingly becoming a critical strategic approach for enterprises to advance digital transformation. This study conceptualizes digital M&As as positive shock events for corporate digital transformation. Using a dataset of digital M&As by Chinese listed companies from 2005 to 2024, this study applies the propensity score matching combined with difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) method to empirically examine the impact of digital M&As on the market value of acquiring firms. The results show that digital M&As significantly enhance acquirers’ market value. Mechanism tests reveal that this effect is driven by digital resource empowerment, operating through increased digital factor inputs and strengthened digital innovation capabilities. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that the market value enhancement effect of digital M&As is predominantly significant in non-digital firms, non-state-owned enterprises, and firms located in eastern China. This study expands the research scope of the micro-level effects of the digital economy and offers useful references for the Chinese government in refining its digital economy strategies, as well as practical guidance for firms in formulating their own digital investment decisions.
  • 详情 The Impact of China's Digital Financial Inclusion on Multidimensional Poverty of Households
    Does digital financial inclusion alleviate poverty? This study investigates this question by integrating the Digital Financial Inclusion Index of Peking University with microdata from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to examine how the expansion of digital financial inclusion affects household multidimensional poverty in China. Anchored in Amartya Sen ’ s capability approach and operationalized through the Alkire–Foster (A–F) framework, the study identifies multidimensional poverty across five key dimensions: income, health, education, insurance, and living standards. Probit models are employed to estimate how digital financial inclusion influences both the likelihood and structure of multidimensional poverty, while instrumental variable techniques are used to address potential endogeneity. Beyond the average effects, the study further explores the mechanisms through which digital financial inclusion contributes to poverty alleviation, focusing on three channels—promoting household consumption, increasing financial investment, and enhancing access to credit. The results reveal that digital financial inclusion significantly mitigates multidimensional poverty, particularly by improving income, living standards, and health outcomes, though its effects on education and insurance are limited. These findings underscore the transformative role of digital finance in fostering inclusive growth, suggesting that policies expanding digital financial infrastructure and literacy can amplify its poverty-reducing effects and advance equitable development.
  • 详情 Financial literacy and technology acceptance drive intention to use robo-advisors
    Robo-advisors have been hailed as financial innovations that combine Artificial Intelligence (AI) and low-cost advisory services, with the potential to democratize stock market participation and improve financial inclusion, especially in less developed countries. However, to date their adoption has been slower than expected and existing research that has attempted to understand this puzzle focuses exclusively on existing users of robo-advisors. In this paper, we study the intention to adopt robo-advisors as an antecedent of actual adoption. Using data from a survey of 1,277 Chinese adults, a country with one of the highest saving rates in the world but also very low stock market participation rate, we find that financial literacy and technology acceptance strongly influence the intention to adopt robo-advisors. A one-unit increase in financial literacy (technology acceptance) is associated with a 5.69% (4.74%) increase in the probability of adopting robo-advisors. Importantly, financial confidence partially mediates the literacy-adoption link, highlighting a key psychological mechanism in improving stock market participation rates. Our results shed light on the underlying drivers that facilitate financial inclusion.