The commodity and financial characteristics of carbon emission allowances play a pivotal role within the Carbon Emission Trading Scheme (CETS). Evaluating the effectiveness of the scheme from the perspective of carbon price is critical, as it directly reflects the underlying value of carbon allowances. This study employs a time-varying Difference-in-Differences (DID) model, utilizing data from publicly listed enterprises in China over the period from 2010 to 2023, to examine the effects of carbon price level and stability on Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The results suggest that both an increase in carbon price level and stability contribute to improvements in TFP, particularly for heavy-polluting and non-stateowned enterprises. Mechanism analysis reveals that higher carbon prices and stability can stimulate corporate engagement in green innovation, activate the Porter effect, and subsequently enhance TFP. Furthermore, optimizing the system environment proves to be an effective means of strengthening the scheme's impact. The study also finds that allocating initial quotas via payment-based mechanisms offers a more effective design. This research highlights the importance of strengthening the financial attributes of carbon emission allowances and offers practical recommendations for increasing the activity of trading entities and improving market liquidity.

The pilot carbon emission trading schemes (ETSs) of China were created to combat climate change in a cost-effective and economically efficient manner, and their potential impact on regulated firms has drawn increasing attention. This study is conducted to provide empirical evidence on the effect of China’s pilot ETSs on firm-level financial performance during the period from 2008 to 2017. The empirical results show that the ETS pilots have a positive impact on firms’ profitability and value, and a negative impact on operational costs. We also find that the ETS pilots improve total factor productivity (TFP) but that changes in technology have an indirect suppressing effect on the relation between the ETS and short-term financial performance, providing support for the weak version of the Porter Hypothesis. Further, we show that the carbon emission price has a negative impact on firms’accounting-based performance but increases firms’ market value. Finally, we find evidence that, in contrast to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), non-SOEs do not experience significant improvements in their financial performance, led by the ETS pilots. Our findings have policy implications for firms’sustainable development and the transition to a low-carbon economy.