This paper employs a proprietary data set on commodity producers’ profit margins (PPMG) and establishes a robust positive relationship between commodity producers’ profitability growth and future returns of commodity futures. The spread portfolio that longs top-PPMG futures contracts and shorts bottom-PPMG futures contracts delivers a statistically significant average weekly return of 36 basis points. We further demonstrate that profitability is a strong SDF factor in commodity futures market. We theoretically justify our empirical findings by developing an investment-based pricing model, in which producers optimally adjust their production process by maximizing profits subject to aggregate profitability shocks. The model reproduces key empirical results through calibration and simulation.

This study reconsiders the timing of the equity risk factors by using the flexible neural networks specified for image recognition to determine the timing weights. The performance of each factor is visualized to be standardized price and volatility charts and `learned' by flexible image recognition methods with timing weights as outputs. The performance of all groups of factors can be significantly improved by using these ``deep learning--based'' timing weights. In addition, visualizing the volatility of factors and using deep learning methods to predict volatility can significantly improve the performance of the volatility-managed portfolio for most categories of factors. Our further investigation reveals that the timing success of our method hinges on its ability in identifying ex ante regime switches such as jumps and crashes of the factors and its predictability on future macroeconomic risk.

We construct firm-level indicators to capture the engagement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, henceforth) via textual analysis. We find that higher firm engagement in BRI predicts higher stock returns in the subsequent 12 months. The top 10% high-BRI firms have 12.42% higher annual returns than bottom 10% low-BRI firms in China A-Share market. Additionally, two fundamental channels of increased earnings and reduced liabilities explain the higher expected returns of high-BRI firms. Furthermore, we reveal that the phenomenon is more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises. For large-cap firms, BR Report is a more effective indicator for predicting future stock returns, while BR Beta performs better for small-cap firms. These findings contribute to the measurement of firm engagement in BRI and its impact on the stock market.

Individual institutions marginal contributions to the systemic risk contain predictive power for its potential future exposure and provide early warning signals to regulators and the public. We use higher-order co-skewness and co-kurtosis to construct systemic risk contribution measures, which allow us to identify and characterize the co-movement driving the asymmetry and tail behavior of the joint distribution of asset returns. We illustrate the usefulness of higher-order moment augmented approach by using 4868 stocks living in the Chinese market from June 2002 to March 2022. The empirical results show that these higher-order moment measures convey useful information for systemic risk contribution measurement and portfolio selection, complementary to the information extracted from a standard principal components analysis.

With the increasing executive-employee pay disparity in recent years, research on executive compensation has grown exponentially. This paper reviews all articles on executive compensation published between 2000 and 2022 in the six accounting journals with the highest impact index in South Korea and China (five journals in China), and evaluates and analyzes the research in both countries. The analysis results are organized as follows: First, the research on executive compensation started earlier in South Korea than in China; second, the focus of the research on executive compensation differs between the two countries; then, the study on the determinants of executive compensation varies between the two countries; forth, the proxies for firm performance are mostly the same in the two countries; and finally, most of the studies in the two countries assert that executive compensation has a positive impact on firm performance. Based on the above research, this paper confirms that the agency theory, which has been widely validated in Western countries, is also valid in Asian countries. In addition, it provides an essential reference for future research on executive compensation in Asian countries.

We examine ESG pricing in the Chinese stock market. The results show that holding stocks with high ESG scores does not provide investors with higher future excess returns. On the contrary, stocks with low ESG scores perform better. However, this negative ESG premium feature is robust only in small-cap stocks. As size increases, the negative ESG premium fades away and is characterized by a positive premium in larger stock subgroups. We further examine the source of the negative ESG premium in small-cap stocks. The results show that this negative premium can not be explained by firm characteristics, short-term reversal effects, and lottery characteristics of stocks, but is associated with ESG investors. Specifically, the higher the ESG score with more ESG investors in small-cap stocks, the lower the expected excess return of the stock. This result implies that firms may benefit from ESG performance and disclosure, while investors may suffer from ESG strategies. Based on the results, we remind investors that they should be cautious in using ESG indicators to guide their investment decisions.

This paper improves the expected return variable and the corresponding trend factor documented by Han, Zhou, and Zhu (2016) and reveals the incremental predictability of this novel expected return measure on stock returns in the Chinese stock market. Portfolio analyses and firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate a significantly positive relation between the improved expected return and future returns. These results are robust to the short-, intermediate-, and long-term price trends and other derived expected returns. Our improved trend factor also outperforms all trend factors constructed by other expected returns. Additionally, we observe that lottery demand, capital states, return synchronicity, investor sentiment and information uncertainty can help explain the superior performance of the improved expected return measure in the Chinese stock market.

This paper examines the consequences of Chinese regulators deviating from a long-standing full bailout policy in addressing the distress of a city-level commercial bank. This policy shift led to a persistent widening of credit spreads and a significant decline in funding ratios for negotiable certificates of deposit issued by small banks relative to large ones. Our empirical analysis reveals a novel contagion mechanism driven by reduced confidence in future bailouts (implicit non-guarantee), contributing to the subsequent collapse of other small banks. However, in the longer term, this policy shift improved price efficiency, credit allocation, and discouraged risk-taking among small banks.

Prior literature shows that implied volatility spreads between call and put options are positively related to future underlying stock returns. In this paper, however, we demon- strate that the volatility spreads are negatively related to future out-of-the-money call option returns. Using unique data on option volumes, we reconcile the two pieces of evidence by showing that option demand by sophisticated, firm investors drives the posi- tive stock return predictability based on volatility spreads, while demand by less sophis- ticated, customer investors drives the negative call option return predictability. Overall, our evidence suggests that volatility spreads contain information about both firm funda- mentals and option mispricing.

We find that the level of short interest in a firm's stock significantly predicts future seasoned equity offers (SEOs). The probability of an SEO announcement increases by 34% (decreases by 49%) for firms in the top (bottom) quintile of short interest. We identify a causal impact of short interest on SEO issuance using a novel instrument for short interest based on future litigation filings in close geographical proximity to hedge fund centers. Our findings suggest that corporate decisions can be triggered by the aggregate trading activity of sophisticated outside investors.