Information environment

  • 详情 Peer Md&A Risk Disclosure and Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from China
    In this study, we investigate whether and how risk disclosure in peer firms’ management discussion and analysis (MD&A) influences analyst earnings forecast accuracy. We find that peer MD&A risk disclosure significantly improves forecast accuracy, demonstrating a positive spillover effect. Moreover, the impact of peer MD&A risk disclosure on analysts’ forecast accuracy strengthens with the comparability and reliability of peer firms’ information, while weakens with the disclosure quality of the focal firm. Finally, peer MD&A risk disclosure also reduces stock price crash risk, providing further evidence that it improves information environment of the focal firm.
  • 详情 Spillover of Bad Publicity Effect of Negative ESG Coverage in Supply Chains on Firm Performance
    In an increasingly open and transparent information environment, negative media coverage of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues would detriment focal firms’ legitimacy and performance. However, we have a limited understanding of whether negative media coverage of supply chain partners would spill over to focal firms. Using a panel dataset from Chinese listed firms, we examine the research question at a dyadic (i.e., focal firm and supplier or customer) level. This study reveals that negative media coverage about supply chain partners’ ESG issues can cause a spillover effect, negatively impacting the focal firms’ financial performance. Notably, the extent of this impact is contingent on the reach of the media sources and the severity of the coverage. We also show that focal firms are more impacted by supply chain partners with stronger relationships and greater market power. Our findings underscore the importance of actively managing partners’ ESG issues to avoid potential financial losses within a multi-tier supply chain. This study has fruitful contributions to the literature on supply chain sustainability and the spillover effect in dyadic relationships.
  • 详情 Large Language Models and Return Prediction in China
    We examine whether large language models (LLMs) can extract contextualized representation of Chinese news articles and predict stock returns. The LLMs we examine include BERT, RoBERTa, FinBERT, Baichuan, ChatGLM and their ensemble model. We find that tones and return forecasts extracted by LLMs from news significantly predict future returns. The equal- and value-weighted long minus short portfolios yield annualized returns of 90% and 69% on average for the ensemble model. Given that these news articles are public information, the predictive power lasts about two days. More interestingly, the signals extracted by LLMs contain information about firm fundamentals, and can predict the aggressiveness of future trades. The predictive power is noticeably stronger for firms with less efficient information environment, such as firms with lower market cap, shorting volume, institutional and state ownership. These results suggest that LLMs are helpful in capturing under-processed information in public news, for firms with less efficient information environment, and thus contribute to overall market efficiency.
  • 详情 Capital market liberalization and corporate debt maturity structure: evidence from the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock connect
    Purpose – This paper takes the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect as a quasi-natural experimentand investigates the impact of capital market liberalization on the corporate debt maturity structure. It also aimsto provide some policy implications for corporate debt financing and further liberalization of the capital marketin China. Design/methodology/approach – Employing the exogenous event of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong StockConnect and using the data of Chinese A-share firms from 2010 to 2020, this study constructs a difference-in-differences model to examine the relationship between capital market liberalization and corporate debt maturitystructure. To validate the results, this study performed several robustness tests, including the parallel test, theplacebo test, the Heckman two-stage regression and the propensity score matching. Findings – This paper finds that capital market liberalization has significantly increased the proportion of long-term debt of target firms. Further analyses suggest that the impact of capital market liberalization on thedebt maturity structure is more pronounced for firms with lower management ownership and non-Big 4 audit.Channel tests show that capital market liberalization improves firms’ information environment and curbsself-interested management behavior. Originality/value – This research provides empirical evidence for the consequences of capital marketliberalization and enriches the literature on the determinants of corporate debt maturity structure. Further thisstudy makes a reference for regulators and financial institutions to improve corporate financing through thegovernance role of capital market liberalization.
  • 详情 Can Motivated Investors Affect ESG Rating Disagreement?
    Based on institutions' general role and the specialty of motivated investors' relatively larger stake, we examine whether ownership by motivated investors is associated with the focal firm's ESG rating disagreement in China. Our results suggest that ownership by motivated investors can decrease the focal firm's ESG rating disagreement. That relationship is strengthened by a better internal or external information environment. What's more, ownership by motivated investors can increase the quality of ESG disclosure and the level of consensus ESG rating. ESG rating disagreement increases stock return volatility and price synchronicity, while motivated investors can mitigate those negative effects. Our results confirm that motivated investors have greater incentive and capability to discipline managers and influence corporate policies and actions even in an emerging market with weak investor protection and the popularity of exploration by ultimate controllers. That would shed valuable insights into the high-quality development of other emerging markets, especially those in south-east Asian.
  • 详情 Retail and Institutional Investor Trading Behaviors: Evidence from China
    With China being a large developing economy, the trading in China’s stock market is dominated by retail investors, and its government actively participates in this market. These features are quite different from those of typical developed markets, and This review focuses on two important questions: how do retail and institutional investors trade in China and why? We have three main findings after reviewing 100+ previous studies. First, small retail investors have low financial literacy, exhibit behavioral biases, and not surprisingly, negatively predict future returns; whereas large retail investors and institutions are capable of process information, and they positively predict future returns. Second, the macro- and firm-level information environment in China is slowly but gradually improving. Finally, the Chinese government actively adjusts their regulations of the stock market to serve the dual goals of growth and stability, with many of them being effective, while some may not generate intended consequences.
  • 详情 Can Local Fintech Development Improve Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy? Evidence from China
    This paper investigates the impact of local fintech development on analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy. We use the method of web text mining to construct the local fintech development index for empirical test and find that local fintech development significantly improves analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy by promoting firm digital transformation, improving firm information transparency, and alleviating the information asymmetry between firms and outsiders. Furthermore, this effect is more significant for analysts without equity pledge associations and those with weaker buy-side pressure. This study shows that local fintech development can optimize the capital market information environment.
  • 详情 Embedded CPC Governance and Disclosure Quality: Evidence from Chinese Private Firms
    Chinese companies have a distinctive feature by embedding Communist Party of China (CPC) into governance structure. In this study, we examine the impact of embedded CPC governance on disclosure quality in Chinese private firms. We find that embedded CPC governance improves disclosure quality. We also document that internal control mediates the relationship between embedded CPC governance and disclosure quality. Further analyses show that our results are pronounced for private firms with greater peer pressure, stronger industry competition, and poorer information environments. Overall, our findings aid our understanding of the role of embedded CPC in influencing disclosure practices in private enterprises.
  • 详情 The Unintended Consequences of Anti-Corruption Campaigns Against Securities Regulators: Evidence from Private Equity Placements
    This study investigates whether and how the central discipline inspection of the securities regulators affects the information environment and investor valuation in the Chinese capital market. Based on the private equity placement (PEP) events, we find that the self-interested media outlets provide more negative coverage of the passed PEP firms during the inspection period than those passed outside the inspection period, resulting in poorer stock returns. Additionally, we find that the negative effect of the inspection on the PEPs’ market reactions is attenuated in media-connected firms and firms with higher advertising expenditure. However, we do not find significant long-term market performance differences between the passed PEP firms during the inspection period and those passed outside the inspection period. Additional results show that during the inspection period, the securities regulators tend to approve the PEP applicants with better initial announcement returns. Moreover, sophisticated investors pay a higher price for the shares of these passed PEP firms during the inspection period. Collectively, our findings suggest that anti-corruption campaigns have unintended effects that hinder retail investors’ access to objective information.
  • 详情 Controlling Shareholder Equity Pledge and Pricing of New Issue of Debt Financing Instruments
    This paper examines the relationship between controlling shareholder equity pledges and their pricing using data on new debt financing instruments issued by Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010-2021. The findings suggest that controlling shareholder equity pledges lead to higher credit spreads on new debt financing instruments issued. Further findings suggest that this significant relationship only exists in groups where listed companies are on the eastern seaboard, where there is a higher risk of the share price collapse, and where management is more competent. It was also found that this relationship was not heterogeneous in the quality of the firm's information environment group and was only significant in the low hollowing out-group, thus ruling the hollowing out hypothesis and the information hypothesis and validating the uniqueness of the control transfer risk hypothesis in this paper.