Instrumental variable

  • 详情 The Impact of China's Digital Financial Inclusion on Multidimensional Poverty of Households
    Does digital financial inclusion alleviate poverty? This study investigates this question by integrating the Digital Financial Inclusion Index of Peking University with microdata from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to examine how the expansion of digital financial inclusion affects household multidimensional poverty in China. Anchored in Amartya Sen ’ s capability approach and operationalized through the Alkire–Foster (A–F) framework, the study identifies multidimensional poverty across five key dimensions: income, health, education, insurance, and living standards. Probit models are employed to estimate how digital financial inclusion influences both the likelihood and structure of multidimensional poverty, while instrumental variable techniques are used to address potential endogeneity. Beyond the average effects, the study further explores the mechanisms through which digital financial inclusion contributes to poverty alleviation, focusing on three channels—promoting household consumption, increasing financial investment, and enhancing access to credit. The results reveal that digital financial inclusion significantly mitigates multidimensional poverty, particularly by improving income, living standards, and health outcomes, though its effects on education and insurance are limited. These findings underscore the transformative role of digital finance in fostering inclusive growth, suggesting that policies expanding digital financial infrastructure and literacy can amplify its poverty-reducing effects and advance equitable development.
  • 详情 How Does Artificial Intelligence Affect Total Factor Productivity of Manufacturing Firms? Evidence from the Operational Efficiency Mechanism
    This paper examines how artificial intelligence (AI) adoption influences the total factor productivity (TFP) of Chinese A-share manufacturing firms from 2010 to 2023. Results show that AI significantly raises TFP, robust across multiple specifications and instrumental variable tests. AI also boosts operational efficiency by accelerating accounts receivable and inventory turnover, revealing a “technology–operation–productivity” pathway. The positive effect is stronger in regions with better digital infrastructure and in firms with stronger governance. The findings provide fresh evidence on AI’s productivity effects and offer policy implications for intelligent transformation and high-quality manufacturing development.
  • 详情 Can Artificial Intelligence Reduce Corporate Stock Price Crash Risk in China?
    This study examines the effect of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on stock price crash risk using panel data from Chinese A-share listed firms from 2001 to 2022. We find that higher levels of AI application significantly reduce crash risk, primarily by enhancing information transparency, easing financial constraints, and promoting innovation. Notably, AI improves transparency within supply chains by reducing information asymmetry between upstream and downstream firms, thereby enhancing information flow and reducing market frictions. Among AI types, machine learning proves most effective in lowering crash risk due to its data-processing and forecasting capabilities, while natural language processing and computer vision show weaker effects. The impact of AI is particularly pronounced in non-government-regulated industries and high-tech firms. Moreover, its risk-mitigating effect becomes increasingly significant over time. These results are robust to instrumental variable estimation and staggered difference-in-differences (DID) designs. These findings highlight the strategic role of AI in risk management and offer practical implications for firms and policymakers aiming to enhance transparency, financial resilience, and long-term value creation.
  • 详情 Smoggy Spending: The Impact of Air Pollution on Offline Cashless Spending
    This paper studies how air pollution shapes offline cashless spending in China. Using monthly transactions from 118,698 merchants in 332 cities from 2019 to 2023, we find that higher pollution raises cashless spending. Instrumental variable and regression discontinuity designs confirm a causal effect. The increase comes mainly from more frequent but smaller purchases and greater participation by new customers. Spending also rebalances from postponable durables toward high-frequency, proximity-based categories, while durables respond little. These results uncover a behavioral channel whereby poor air quality shifts the margins and the composition of offline cashless commerce.
  • 详情 Shill Bidding in Online Housing Auctions
    Shill bidding, the use of non-genuine bids to inflate prices, undermines auction market integrity. Exploiting China’s online judicial housing auctions as a laboratory, we identify 2% of participants as suspected shill bidders, affecting 8% of auctions. They raise price premium by 14.3%, causing an annual deadweight loss of ¥570 million for homebuyers. Mechanism analysis reveals they create bidding momentum and intensify competition. We establish causality using a difference-in-differences analysis leveraging a 2017 regulatory intervention and an instrumental variable approach using dishonest judgment debtors. These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers and auction platforms to combat fraud in online high-stake auctions.
  • 详情 Does Pollution Affect Exports? Evidence from China
    The literature has extensively explored the relationship between trade and envi-ronment, with most studies focusing on how trade affects the environment. However, our research takes a different approach by examining how air pollution affects firms’ exports. We use Chinese export and pollution data from 2000 to 2007 at the firm and county levels. By using fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations as a proxy for air pollution and employing thermal inversion as an instrumental variable, we ffnd that a 1% increase in PM2.5 leads to a 0.89% reduction in firms’ exports. We also observe this negative effect of air pollution on entry and exit (i.e., extensive margins). Our mechanism analysis identiffes two channels through which air pollution affects exports. First, air pollution decreases exports by reducing firm productivity. Second, air pollution induces stringent environmental regulations, which reduces exports as firms need to increase abatement costs or reduce production to meet the environment standards.
  • 详情 Climate Risk and Corporate Financial Risk: Empirical Evidence from China
    There is substantial evidence indicating that enterprises are negatively impacted by climate risk, with the most direct effects typically occurring in financial domains. This study examines A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2023, employing text analysis to develop the firm-level climate risk indicator and investigate the influence on corporate financial risk. The results show a significant positive correlation between climate risk and financial risk at the firm level. Mechanism analysis shows that the negative impact of climate risk on corporate financial condition is mainly achieved through three paths: increasing financial constraints, reducing inventory reserves, and increasing the degree of maturity mismatch. To address potential endogeneity, this study applies instrumental variable tests, propensity score matching, and a quasi-natural experiment based on the Paris Agreement. Additional tests indicate that reducing the degree of information asymmetry and improving corporate ESG performance can alleviate the negative impact of climate risk on corporate financial conditions. This relationship is more pronounced in high-carbon emission industries. In conclusion, this research deepens the understanding of the link between climate risk and corporate financial risk, providing a new micro perspective for risk management, proactive governance transformation, and the mitigation of financial challenges faced by enterprises.
  • 详情 Do the Expired Independent Directors Affect Corporate Social Responsibility? Evidence from China
    Why do firms appoint expired independent directors? How do expired independent directors affect corporate governance and thus impact investment decisions? By taking advantage of the sharp increase in expired independent directors’ re-employment in China caused by exogenous regulatory shocks, Rule No. 18 and Regulation 11, this paper adopts a PSM-DID design to test the impact of expired independent directors on CSR performance. We find that firms experience a significant decrease in CSR performance after re-hiring expired independent directors and the effect is stronger for CSR components mostly related to internal governance. The results of robustness tests show that the main results are robust to alternative measures of CSR performance, an extended sample period, alternative control groups, year-by-year PSM method, and a staggered DID model regarding Rule No. 18 as a staggered quasi-natural experiment. We address the endogeneity concern that chance drives our DID results by using exogenous regulatory shock, an instrumental variable (the index of regional guanxi culture), and placebo tests. We also find that the negative relation between the re-employment of expired independent directors and CSR performance is more significant for independent directors who have more relations with CEOs and raise less objection to managers’ decisions, and for firms that rely more on expired independent directors’ monitoring roles (e.g., a lower proportion of independent directors, CEO duality, high growth opportunities, and above-median FCF). The mediating-effect test shows that the re-employment of expired independent directors increases CEOs’ myopia and thus reduces CSR performance. In addition, we exclude the alternative explanation that the negative relation is caused by the protective effect brought by expired independent directors’ political backgrounds. Our study shows that managers may build reciprocal relationships with expired independent directors in the Chinese guanxi culture and gain personal interest.
  • 详情 The Safety Shield: How Classified Boards Benefit Rank-and-File Employees
    This study examines how classified boards affect workplace safety, an important dimension of employee welfare. Using comprehensive establishment-level injury data from the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration and a novel classified board database, we document that firms with classified boards experience 12-13% lower workplace injury rates. To establish causality, we employ instrumental variable and difference-in-differences approaches exploiting staggered board declassifications. The safety benefits of classified boards operate through increased safety expenditures, reduced employee workloads, and enhanced external monitoring through analyst coverage. These effects are strongest in financially constrained firms and those with weaker monitoring mechanisms. Our findings support the bonding hypothesis that anti-takeover provisions facilitate long-term value creation by protecting stakeholder relationships and provide novel evidence that classified boards benefit rank-and-file employees, not just executives and major customers. The results reveal an important mechanism through which governance structures impact employee welfare and challenge the conventional view that classified boards primarily serve managerial entrenchment.
  • 详情 The Impact of Digital Financial Inclusion on Relative Poverty Among Rural Migrant Population
    With the elimination of absolute poverty and the improvement of the urbanization rate in China's rural areas, the phenomenon of “urbanization of poverty” has become increasingly prominent. Restricted by the influence of the household registration system, sources of livelihood, social capital, etc., the rural migrants are facing higher social exclusion and a stronger sense of relative deprivation, which makes the rural migrant population become the focus and difficulty of relative poverty governance. Based on the data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this paper discusses the impact of digital financial inclusion on the relative poverty of the rural migrant population. It is found that the development of digital financial inclusion can significantly reduce the incidence of relative poverty among the rural migrant population. Considering different model settings, relative poverty standards, dimensions of digital financial inclusion and the introduction of the number of banks in 1937 as an instrumental variable, the endogeneity test does not change the conclusion of this paper. Further results showed that digital financial inclusion has a greater relative poverty alleviation effect for traditionally disadvantaged groups such as those with low education levels and the older generation, which is in line with the original intention of the development of digital financial inclusion. Therefore, the paper emphasizes that the improvement of the inclusive financial system can restore power and enhance the financial capacity of the rural migrant population, drive the governance of urban relative poverty with the dual wheels of “financial empowerment and ability enhancement”, stimulate the endogenous motivation of common prosperity, and ultimately achieve “people-oriented urbanization” and common prosperity of the people.