Investing

  • 详情 Sustainable Dynamic Investing with Predictable ESG Information Flows
    This paper proposes the concepts of ESG information flows and a predictable framework of ESG flows based on AR process, and studies how ESG information flows are incorporated into and affect a dynamic portfolio with transaction costs. Two methods, called the ESG factor model and the ESG preference model, are considered to embed ESG information flows into a dynamic mean-variance model. The dynamic optimal portfolio can be expressed as a traditional optimal portfolio without ESG information and a dynamic ESG preference portfolio, and the impact of ESG information on optimal trading is explicitly analyzed. The rich numerical results show that ESG information can improve the out-of-sample performance, and ESG preference portfolio has the best out-of-sample performance including the net returns, Sharpe ratio and cumulative return of portfolios, and contribute to reducing risk and transaction costs. Our dynamic trading strategy provides valuable insights for sustainable investment both in theory and practice.
  • 详情 Lottery Preference for Factor Investing in China’s A-Share Market
    Using a comprehensive factor zoo, we document a notable factor MAX premium in the Chinese market. Factors with high maximum daily returns consistently outperform those with low maximum returns by 0.82% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. This premium remains robust controlling for various factor characteristics, and is not sensitive to the selection of factors. The factor MAX anomaly stands apart from lottery-type stock anomalies and contributes to elucidate most of these anomalies. The factor MAX premium concentrates in high-eigenvalue principal component factors, shedding light on the prevalent lottery preferences for factor investing in China’s A-share market. We document pronounced existence of factor MAX anomaly in the United States and other G7 countries.
  • 详情 Factor MAX and Lottery Preferences in China’s A-Share Market
    Using a comprehensive factor zoo, we document a notable factor MAX premium in the Chinese market. Factors with high maximum daily returns consistently outperform those with low maximum returns by 0.82% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. This premium remains robust controlling for various factor characteristics, and is not sensitive to the selection of factors. The factor MAX anomaly stands apart from lottery-type stock anomalies and contributes to elucidate most of these anomalies. The factor MAX premium concentrates in high-eigenvalue principal component factors, shedding light on the prevalent lottery preferences for factor investing in China’s A-share market.
  • 详情 Decoding GPT Mania: Unraveling the Enigma of Investor-Firm Collusion in Stock Market Gaming
    This study investigates the impact of investor attention on stock market reactions to ChatGPT using dialogues on the Chinese interactive investor platforms (IIPs). We measure investor attention by the number of investors’ questions toward ChatGPT on the IIPs and categorize the firms’ answers as Investing, Speculative, and Absent. The research reveals positive and statistically significant market reactions surrounding the initial questions that occur before firm responses. Positive abnormal returns are also observed around the initial answer dates, with Investing firms evoking the highest market response, followed by Speculative firms, and Absent firms exhibiting the lowest reactions. Furthermore, positive market reactions persist even as firms modify their ChatGPT involvement statements or face stock exchanges inquiries, suggesting that the stock price upswing may primarily be fueled by ChatGPT-related mania. Our findings imply the potential of ChatGPT fervor: collusion caused by investor attention to ChatGPT and firm’s responses catering to investors.
  • 详情 ESG rating and labor income share: Firm-level evidence
    This study investigates the relationship between ESG (environmental, social, and governance) ratings and labor share at the firm level. Using data from Chinese A-share listed firms from 2011 to 2021, we find a significantly positive relationship between the two. Furthermore, we document that state-owned enterprises do not demonstrate a strong sense of political and social responsibility in their employee recruitment projects, while companies with high ESG ratings in East China could increase their labor share due to less stringent financial constraints. Finally, the employment-creation effect of ESG ratings is one of the important channels for improving labor share. Considering the increasing awareness of ESG concepts and the boom in ESG investing, our findings hold significant relevance for employees, directors, investors, and public policymakers.
  • 详情 Post Earnings Announcement Drift: Earnings Surprise Measuring, the Medium Effect of Investor Attention and Investing Strategy
    Drifting in the direction of earnings surprises for a prolonged period is a decades-puzzling financial anomaly, i.e., the “post-earnings-announcement drift” (PEAD). This paper provided a new simple measure of earnings surprise called ORJ. Based on ORJ, not only is the medium effect of investors’ attention on the relationship between earnings surprises and PEAD analyzed, but a tractable and profitable investing strategy is provided. Through comprehensive empirical analysis of the Chinese stock market, we found that i) both earnings surprises and investor attention can increase the degree of PEAD; ii) “good” (bad) earnings surprises strengthen (weaken) the degree of drift by attracting (decreasing) investor attention; it is asymmetric that the positive effects of “good” earnings surprises are stronger than that of “bad” earnings surprises on PEAD; and iii) the strategy obtains an average 6.78% return per quarter in excess of the market and only longs dozens of stocks . iv) Typical pricing factors such as the Fama-French three factors, illiquidity and company characteristics have little explanatory power for the returns of the strategy. This paper strongly shows the importance of monitoring overnight returns of earnings announcements to digging the unexpected information, reveals one mechanism of earnings surprises on PEAD and demonstrates the potential profitability of PEAD in the Chinese market.
  • 详情 Do new ratings add information? Evidence from the staggered introduction of ESG rating agencies in China
    As many ESG rating agencies have flourished to meet rising interests in ESG investing, we examine the information provider role of these rating agencies. We hypothesize that new ratings can add information useful to investors about rated firms besides any changes to the average level and dispersion in ratings. We exploited the empirical setting where the introduction of various ESG ratings in China is staggered over time and across firms. We show that an increase in the number of ratings by different agencies for a given firm will induce more mutual funds’ investments towards that firm. This is unexplained by rating inflation or rating shopping channels. We further show that such effect is more pronounced when incumbent and entrant agents provide complementary information. For different types of funds, we find different sensitivities to the arrival of new agents in accordance with their explicit requirements for ESG mandate. And interestingly ESG funds that track ESG indices are not responsive to new ratings as ESG indices are sticky in choosing the reference rating. We also provide evidence that the documented effects are not due to endogenous actions taken by incumbent agencies or the firms. Our paper provides interesting and causal evidence of the incremental information from additional ESG ratings which have important implications for the market competition and regulations of ESG rating agencies.
  • 详情 Learning by Investing: Entrepreneurial Spillovers from Venture Capital
    This paper studies how investing in venture capital (VC) affects the entrepreneurial outcomes of individual limited partners (LPs). Using comprehensive administrative data on entrepreneurial activities and VC fundraising and investments in China, we first document that individual LPs, on average, contribute about 50% of the capital of each fund in which they participate, and over 50% of them are entrepreneurs. We then exploit an identification strategy by comparing the entrepreneurial outcomes of individual LPs in funds that eventually launched with those in funds that failed to launch. The fraction of committed capital from corporate LPs in industries that subsequently encounter poor returns is used as an instrument for funds' launch failures. We find that after investing in a successfully launched VC fund, individual LPs create significantly more ventures than do LPs in funds which failed to launch. These new ventures tend to be high-tech firms and file more patents than do the LPs' prior ventures. We find evidence consistent with venture investments being a channel through which individual LPs learn.
  • 详情 Can Investor Sentiment Predict Value Premium in China?
    We explore the value premium in the Chinese stock market and how to exploit it using a new investor sentiment index. We extensively discuss the performance of BM, CFP, EP and SP factors in China. Consistent with the experience of other countries, BM generates more of a value premium in small cap performance, while EP generates more of a value premium in large cap stocks in the Chinese stock market. First, we construct a novel value factor based on BM, EP and SP. We obtain the loading weights of each value indicator in each market value by partial least squares. The novel value factor outperformed all other value factors. Second, we explore the relationship between value premium and investor sentiment. Different from evidence from most developed countries, the value stocks perform better than growth stocks in the bull market in China. Our evidence suggests investing in value stocks can get more profit when market sentiment is low.
  • 详情 ESG or Profitability? What ESG Mutual Funds Really Care About Most
    As “sin” stocks and “brown” stocks generally earn higher returns than “green” stocks, fund managers face a trade-off between profitability and sustainability preferences when investing in environmental, social and governance (ESG). We explore the investment styles of ESG funds in the Chinese A-share market and analyze the behavior of ESG funds in terms of asset allocation and portfolio adjustment. We find that ESG funds prefer stocks with high return performance over stocks with high ESG performance. Textual analyses of prospectuses reveal a degree of “greenwashing” behavior by ESG funds. Overall, we show that ESG funds not purely ESG-driven.