Lottery preference

  • 详情 Lottery Preference for Factor Investing in China’s A-Share Market
    Using a comprehensive factor zoo, we document a notable factor MAX premium in the Chinese market. Factors with high maximum daily returns consistently outperform those with low maximum returns by 0.82% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. This premium remains robust controlling for various factor characteristics, and is not sensitive to the selection of factors. The factor MAX anomaly stands apart from lottery-type stock anomalies and contributes to elucidate most of these anomalies. The factor MAX premium concentrates in high-eigenvalue principal component factors, shedding light on the prevalent lottery preferences for factor investing in China’s A-share market. We document pronounced existence of factor MAX anomaly in the United States and other G7 countries.
  • 详情 Factor MAX and Lottery Preferences in China’s A-Share Market
    Using a comprehensive factor zoo, we document a notable factor MAX premium in the Chinese market. Factors with high maximum daily returns consistently outperform those with low maximum returns by 0.82% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. This premium remains robust controlling for various factor characteristics, and is not sensitive to the selection of factors. The factor MAX anomaly stands apart from lottery-type stock anomalies and contributes to elucidate most of these anomalies. The factor MAX premium concentrates in high-eigenvalue principal component factors, shedding light on the prevalent lottery preferences for factor investing in China’s A-share market.
  • 详情 Volatility-managed Portfolios in the Chinese Equity Market
    This study investigates the effectiveness of the volatility-timing strategy in the Chinese equity market. We find that the volatility-managed portfolio (VMP) consistently outperforms its original counterpart, both in individual factor analysis and mean-variance efficient multifactor assessment, and the results are robust in outof-sample setup. Notably, the outperformance is mostly driven by stocks with high arbitrage risk, short-selling constraints, relatively smaller size, and lottery preferences. Further, the multifactor portfolio constructed from the volatility-managed strategy outperforms other portfolios especially in turmoil periods such as high sentiment and low macroeconomic confidence periods. Our findings suggest that in the Chinese equity market with typical trading frictions, volatility timing strategies consistently gain profitable performance.
  • 详情 Dissecting the Lottery-Like Anomaly: Evidence from China
    This paper dissects the lottery-like anomaly in Chinese A-share stocks by decomposing total stock returns into overnight and intraday returns. Our findings indicate that the negative overnight returns are concentrated among lottery-like stocks, and the lottery-like anomaly is mainly driven by the overnight returns component. Considering the unique Chinese institutional features, our mechanism analysis reveals that the overnight returns induced lottery-like anomaly is more pronounced in stocks with high retail investors' gambling preference and high limits of arbitrage. Overall, our results suggest that investors optimism and trading constraints have a substantial impact on market efficiency in China.