Climate change presents a global threat, prompting nations to adopt low-carbon development pathways to mitigate its potential impacts. However, current research lacks a comprehensive framework capable of integrating multiple variables and providing dynamic optimization capabilities. This article focuses on designing pathways for developing a low-carbon economy to tackle climate challenges. Specifically, we construct a low-carbon economy model that incorporates economic, environmental, social, energy, and policy factors to analyze the drivers of economic growth and carbon emissions. We utilize economic model predictive control and tracking model predictive control to optimize development pathways aligned with various low-carbon targets, creating and validating a comprehensive framework for low-carbon policy design using historical data from China. This study highlights significant advantages in analyzing low-carbon pathways through advanced techniques like hierarchical regression and model predictive control, providing a robust framework that enhances our understanding of causal relationships within the LCE system, captures system feedback, dynamically optimizes pathways, and accommodates diverse policies within a comprehensive low-carbon economy system.

The pilot carbon emission trading schemes (ETSs) of China were created to combat climate change in a cost-effective and economically efficient manner, and their potential impact on regulated firms has drawn increasing attention. This study is conducted to provide empirical evidence on the effect of China’s pilot ETSs on firm-level financial performance during the period from 2008 to 2017. The empirical results show that the ETS pilots have a positive impact on firms’ profitability and value, and a negative impact on operational costs. We also find that the ETS pilots improve total factor productivity (TFP) but that changes in technology have an indirect suppressing effect on the relation between the ETS and short-term financial performance, providing support for the weak version of the Porter Hypothesis. Further, we show that the carbon emission price has a negative impact on firms’accounting-based performance but increases firms’ market value. Finally, we find evidence that, in contrast to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), non-SOEs do not experience significant improvements in their financial performance, led by the ETS pilots. Our findings have policy implications for firms’sustainable development and the transition to a low-carbon economy.