With the rapid development of the global shipping industry, maritime traffic continues to grow, and maritime traffic risks are becoming increasingly prominent, posing serious threats to economic development, the ecological environment, and public safety. In this context, this study develops an environmental data-driven dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model to simulate the dynamic evolution process of maritime traffic risks from the massive data of complex shipping systems. Firstly, based on the systems theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP) accident causation analysis framework, risk influencing factors (RIFs) are identified through the analysis of maritime accident report systems. Secondly, addressing the dynamic nature of maritime risks, a novel transition probability matrix (TPM) learning mechanism integrating environmental data is proposed, constructing a DBN model capable of characterizing temporal risk performance. Finally, a case study of typical routes along the Chinese coast reveals that risk performance evolution exhibits significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity across sea areas, with the East Sea and South China Sea regions being the most prominent. Their fluctuations are highly correlated with seasonal meteorological and hydrological changes, and the distribution of accident risks is also closely associated with extreme weather events such as typhoons. Sensitivity analysis validates the model's reliability. This study provides a quantitative tool for the dynamic risk management of intelligent shipping systems and offers policy insights for intelligent maritime transportation safety regulation.

Why do fertility subsidies consistently fail in China? Why do consumptionand fertility collapse globally despite intact household book wealth? This paper proposes the Family Long Cycle Hypothesis (FLCH), extending thedecision-making unit of the life cycle hypothesis from an individual to an intergenerational family network, and expanding the budget constraint from a singlelifetime resource constraint to a dual constraint of “total resources + liquiditystructure”. The core mechanism is: intergenerational “blood-transfusion” homepurchase locks in network liquidity without changing household net assets, completing a balance sheet morph of “book wealth unharmed, decision-making paralyzed” at the moment of purchase. This liquidity depletion spikes effective riskaversion, forming a multiplier effect with income uncertainty, causing fertility—the irreversible commitment with the longest duration—to enter the corner solution region first. Within this region, the elasticity of fertility decisions to costsubsidies is strictly zero, but they remain highly sensitive to liquidity repairand uncertainty reduction. Consequently, this paper proves the fundamentalmechanism difference between consumption subsidies (cash rewards, childcarefee waivers) and capital transfers (mortgage principal write-down, unconditionalcash transfers), and proposes three effective policy directions: reducing incomeuncertainty, repairing family liquidity, and raising the reference income of thebottom 90% of the population. The model nests the standard life cycle hypothesis as a special case and is distinguishable from the competitive saving hypothesis on six pairs of opposing predictions. The theory also explains theasymmetric “fast-falling, slow-rising” adjustment of housing prices: the drop isdriven by defensive behavior (business cycle scale), while the recovery is constrained by intergenerational liquidity reconstruction (intergenerational scale of10–20 years).

This paper quantifies the impact of rural–urban migration on agricultural fires, a major source of air pollution in China. Using satellite records and census data, we exploit an exogenous trade shock that raised manufacturing labor demand in destination prefec-tures, drawing workers from origin counties through established migration networks. A one-percentage-point increase in rural labor emigration in 2010 led to a 5% rise in agricultural fires from 2011 to 2017. The effect stems from reduced agricultural labor, which incentivizes fire use as a labor-saving clearing method. Consistent with this mech-anism, we find no effect from non-agricultural emigration or from migration to nearby areas where return farming remains feasible, with the strongest impact during harvest seasons. Institutional reforms, particularly land titling programs, significantly mitigate the problem by enhancing tenure security, enabling farmland reallocation, and reducing reliance on fire—proving more effective than nationwide administrative bans.

We interpret industry discount rates as proxies for value investment, grounded in Q theory, while capturing gambling preferences through salience theory. Integrating these perspectives, we propose a novel asset pricing model (ST-ICAPM) that unifies value investment and salience factors, evaluating its pricing efficacy across Chinese industries from 2004 to 2023. Empirical results show that investment factors tend to negatively predict future returns, while growth factors command risk premia. However, profitability factors exhibit limited explanatory power. Investor expectations are primarily driven by profit growth, emphasizing the need to enhance profit stability for a value-oriented market. Salience intensity, especially when measured via eigenvector centrality within industry networks, serves as a strong negative predictor of returns, emphasizing the importance of conceptual connections over purely economic linkages in shaping investor behavior. Robust tests confirm that the ST-ICAPM outperforms benchmark models (FF3, CARHART4, FF5, ICAPM, and STCAPM) in terms of pricing power. Our findings emphasize the need to promote value investing and restrain gambling behavior as essential strategies to cultivate a resilient capital market in China.

As China's bond market expands rapidly, the complexity of financial guarantee networks and their implications for credit risk have become critical issues in both academic research and financial practice. Utilizing micro-level data from China's credit bond market spanning 2014 to 2024, this study constructs a multi-layer network incorporating bonds, guarantors, and issuing firms to empirically examine the impact of guarantor network centrality on bond credit spreads. The results reveal a significant U-shaped relationship: moderate centrality reduces spreads by bolstering market confidence, whereas excessive centrality increases them due to heightened systemic risk. Mechanism analyses identify systemic risk and information asymmetry as key mediating channels through which centrality affects credit risk premiums. Heterogeneity tests indicate that this U-shaped pattern is more pronounced among state-owned guarantors, real estate firms, and high-risk clusters within the network. Furthermore, both cross-layer connectivity within the multi-layer structure and regional financial development levels significantly moderate the centrality-spread relationship. These findings offer a structural perspective on credit risk pricing in emerging markets and provide valuable policy insights for credit rating system design, guarantee regulation, and systemic risk prevention. International investors could also leverage these findings to better assess systemic risk in interconnected financial markets across emerging economies.

Traditional threshold-based stock networks suffer from subjective parameter selection and inherent limitations: they constrain relationships to binary representations, failing to capture both correlation strength and negative dependencies. To address this, we introduce statistically validated correlation networks that retain only statistically significant correlations via a rigorous t-test of Pearson coefficients. We then propose a novel structure termed the largest strong-correlation balanced module (LSCBM), defined as the maximum-size group of stocks with structural balance (i.e., positive edge-sign products for all triplets) and strong pairwise correlations. This balance condition ensures stable relationships, thus facilitating potential hedging opportunities through negative edges. Theoretically, within a random signed graph model, we establish LSCBM’s asymptotic existence, size scaling, and multiplicity under various parameter regimes. To detect LSCBM efficiently, we develop MaxBalanceCore, a heuristic algorithm that leverages network sparsity. Simulations validate its efficiency, demonstrating scalability to networks of up to 10,000 nodes within tens of seconds. Empirical analysis demonstrates that LSCBM identifies core market subsystems that dynamically reorganize in response to economic shifts and crises. In the Chinese stock market (2013–2024), LSCBM’s size surges during high-stress periods (e.g., the 2015 crash) and contracts during stable or fragmented regimes, while its composition rotates annually across dominant sectors (e.g., Industrials and Financials).

This study develops a comprehensive methodological framework for identifying and quantifying investor echo chambers in online stock discussion forums. Motivated by a dynamic model of endogenous echo chamber formation, which formalizes how investors optimally allocate attention and update beliefs under cognitive and informational constraints, we construct a two-layer multiplex investor network that integrates common-attention similarity and semantic similarity to jointly capture the informational and cognitive linkages among investors. This framework enables the systematic examination of how shared information sources and convergent opinions emerge within investor communities. We compute both community-level and individual-level (node-level) echo-chamber intensity by integrating measures of social homophily, semantic reinforcement, and community insularity. At the firm level, we further aggregate these micro-level indicators using attention-weighted indices, community concentration (HHI), and semantic polarization metrics to characterize how echo-chamber dynamics manifest in firm-related discussions. In addition, we propose a general empirical panel framework to examine the relationship between investor echo-chamber intensity and firm-level outcomes. Overall, this paper provides a methodological foundation for the broader Investors’ Echo Chamber Project, offering scalable tools for network-based behavioral analysis and laying the groundwork for future research linking online social dynamics, financial market efficiency, and corporate decision-making.

Cross-firm momentum effects via shared analyst coverage are well-documented in de-veloped markets, but their robustness remains unclear in emerging markets, where information diffusion is asymmetric and analyst coverage is highly concentrated. Our work revisits this effect in an environment of extreme informational frictions — the Chinese market. We reconstruct the information transmission channel within the an-alyst coverage network by introducing a novel weighting scheme based on strength centrality (SC). This measure identiffes inffuential leader firms that command dis-proportionate attention from both analysts and the market. Our results demonstrate that SC-weighted connected-firm returns robustly predict cross-sectional stock returns, yielding significant and persistent profits even under a rigorous stock filter. This per-formance cannot be subsumed by strategies based on alternative weighting schemes or by explanations such as intra-industry cross-firm momentum and information discreteness. Further analysis reveals that the superiority of the SC-based approach stems from its ability to effectively identify firms with stronger cross-period fundamental linkages. In addition, high-SC stocks are characterized by higher investor attention, more efficient information processing, lower arbitrage costs, and greater internationa exposures. With this evidence, we further confirm a directional spillover: cross-firm momentum effects flow exclusively from these high-SC leaders to low-SC laggards, and there is no reverse spillover. Our findings suggest that cross-firm momentum may be systematically underestimated in many international markets due to methodological limitations rather than economic irrelevance. The SC-based framework therefore of-fers a portable tool for global investors and researchers operating in environments with asymmetric information.

We propose a time-varying framework for tail risk contagion based on conditional higher co-moments (Co-HCM), derived from a DCC-GARCH-MGH model that provides closed-form expressions for dynamic co-moments. Applying this CoHCM approach, we construct tail contagion networks across Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) stock markets. Our ffndings indicate that covariance-based metrics underestimate the ex-tent of epidemic transmission, while the CoHCM metrics reveal China’s pivotal role in spreading outbreaks and identify a distinct cluster of core transmission hubs, particularly during the 2015 Chinese stock market crisis. Dynamic contagion further exhibits cross-country heterogeneity that the Southeast Asian markets synchronize tightly with China during crises, while smaller and resource-driven markets display more inter-mittent contagion patterns. These ffndings highlight the importance of higher co-moment dependence for monitoring systemic risk in interconnected emerging markets.

随着汽车金融下沉市场的拓展与多源异构数据的爆发，传统信用评分模型在兼顾预测精度与特定场景泛化能力时遭遇瓶颈。本文提出一种基于多模态混合专家模型（Multimodal Mixture of Experts, MMoE）的深度风控框架。该框架依托企业级AI中台，通过动态门控网络（Gating Network）将借款人的结构化征信、非结构化文本语义及动态行为特征智能路由至专属专家网络。基于 LendingClub 公开数据集的实证研究（有效映射汽车金融多模态场景）表明，MMoE 模型在 AUC 与 KS 指标上显著优于 LightGBM 等主流基准模型，且其期望校准误差（ECE）降至 0.015。研究证实，门控路由机制不仅提升了长尾人群的逾期预测准度，更为深度学习在金融领域的应用提供了宏观可解释性视角。本研究为金融机构构建高并发、易扩展的下一代智能风控底座提供了系统性的工程路径与理论支撑。