This study investigates and compares the effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)'s negative price suggestion on prices and trading activities in the crude oil futures market to discuss the cause of negative crude oil futures prices. Through event studies, our results show that the COVID-19 pandemic no longer impacts crude oil futures prices in April after controlled market risk, while the CME’s negative prices suggestion can explain the crude oil futures price changes around and around even after April 8 to some degree. Moreover, our study uncovers anomalies in prices and trading activities by analyzing returns, trading volume, open interest, and illiquidity measures using vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The results imply that CME’s allowing negative prices strengthens the price impact on trading volume and makes illiquidity risk matter. Our results coincide with the following lawsuit evidence of market manipulation.

Using Granger Causal and Cointegration Tests, we analyzed the relationship between the open interests of commercial investors, non-commercial invest institution, retail dealers and the oil price in WTI futures market from 2003 to 2012. Found the short positions of commercial investors are determined by the basis and futures price. And the long positions held by commercial investors are for the need of commercial investors and invest institution to hold short positions. The investment institutions adjust the long positions by the change of the futures price. There are the co-integration relationship between the positions hold by Commercial customers and investment institutions. And the changes of short positions hold by investment institutions are affected by the long positions hold by investment institutions. The long positions holds by the commercial investors are affected by the short positions hold by the commercial investors and investment institutions. These founding can help us to understand the relationship and internal influences mechanism between the open interests and price in futures markets.