Openness

  • 详情 Openness and Growth: A Comparison of the Experiences of China and Mexico
    In the late 1980s, Mexico opened itself to international trade and foreign investment, followed in the early 1990s by China. China and Mexico are still the two countries characterized as middle-income by the World Bank with the highest levels of merchandise exports. Although their measures of openness have been comparable, these two countries have had sharply different economic performances: China has achieved spectacular growth, whereas Mexico’s growth has been disappointingly modest. In this article, we extend the analysis of Kehoe and Ruhl (2010) to account for the differences in these experiences. We show that China opened its economy while it was still achieving rapid growth from shifting employment out of agriculture and into manufacturing while Mexico opened long after its comparable phase of structural transformation. China is only now catching up with Mexico in terms of GDP per working-age person, and it still lags behind in terms of the fraction of its population engaged in agriculture. Furthermore, we argue that China has been able to move up a ladder of quality and technological sophistication in the composition of its exports and production, while Mexico seems to be stuck exporting a fixed set of products to its North American neighbors.
  • 详情 Capital Market Liberalization and the Optimization of Firms' Domestic and International "Dual Circulation" Layout: Empirical Evidence from China's A-share Listed Companies
    This paper, based on data from Chinese A-share listed companies between 2009 and 2019, employs the implementation of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" as a landmark event of capital market liberalization, utilizing a difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the impact of market openness on firms' cross-region investment behavior and its underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that: (1) the launch of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" has significantly promoted the establishment of cross-provincial and cross-border subsidiaries by the companies involved; (2) capital market liberalization influences firms' cross-region investment through three dimensions: finance, governance, and stakeholders. In terms of finance, the openness alleviated financing constraints and improved stock liquidity; in governance, it pressured companies to adopt more digitalized and transparent governance structures to accommodate cross-regional expansion; in the stakeholder dimension, it attracted the attention of external investors, accelerating their understanding of firms and alleviating the trust issues associated with cross-region expansion. (3) The effect of capital market liberalization on promoting cross-border investments by private enterprises is particularly pronounced, and this effect is further strengthened as the quality of corporate information disclosure improves. Firms with higher levels of product diversification benefit more from market liberalization, accelerating their overseas expansion. (4) Capital market liberalization has elevated the level of cross-region investment, thereby significantly fostering innovation and improving investment efficiency. The conclusions of this study provide fresh empirical evidence for understanding the microeconomic effects of China's capital market liberalization, the intrinsic mechanisms of corporate cross-region investments, and their economic consequences.
  • 详情 How Does Environmental Regulation Impact Low-carbon Transition? Evidence From China’s Iron and Steel Industry
    Comprehensive evaluation and identification of the critical regulatory determinants of carbon emission efficiency (CEE) are very important for China’s low-carbon transition. Accordingly, this paper first employs an undesirable global super-hybrid measure approach to calculate the CEE of China’s iron and steel industry (ISI). We then further use spatial error and threshold regression models to examine the spatial and non-linear effects of heterogeneous environmental regulations on CEE, respectively. Our empirical results show that (1) CEE varies significantly across China’s regions, with the eastern region having the highest CEE score, followed by the western and central regions, with the northeast region ranking the lowest; (2) command-and-control and market-incentive regulations both promote CEE, whereas the public participation approach does not significantly contribute to performance gains; (3) all three types of environmental regulations exhibit a non-linear threshold effect on CEE; (4) openness level, technological progress, and industrial concentration enhance efficiency gains, while urbanization level exerts a negative impact on CEE. Our findings have important implications for the design of environmental regulations.
  • 详情 ​How Federal Reserve Shapes International Stock Markets: Insights from China
    We examine how Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings influence international stock returns, highlighting that the standard Fed news channel creates an even-week pattern in the United States and other highly integrated developed markets. By analyzing the Chinese market, we demonstrate that the news channel contributes to higher returns, operating in non-US countries even without international equity flows. Additionally, we identify an uncertainty channel that produces a contrasting odd-week pattern. Placebo tests indicate that the effectiveness of the uncertainty channel may depend on the financial market’s openness. Overall, our research enriches and extends the existing view on how the Federal Reserve, as the leader of central banks, shapes international stock market returns throughout the entire FOMC cycle.
  • 详情 Investigating the conditional effects of public, private, and foreign investments on the green finance-environment nexus
    The use of green finance to slow down global warming in support of sustainable development remains widely discussed. This study examines whether investment structure moderates the impact of green finance on the environment in China, one of the top carbon-emitting nations and the second-largest economy in the world. We primarily used the moments-quantile regression approach with fixed-effect models on panel data from 1992Q1 to 2020Q4. First, the results confirmed that green finance and public and private investments worked synergistically to lower CO2 emissions, especially in Central and Western China. However, there was no proof that green finance and foreign direct investment were complementary in reducing CO2 emissions in China, unlike the Central region. Second, green finance marginally lowered CO2 emissions in all provinces, mainly in Eastern and Western China; this reduction was largely dependent on private investment in the Western region’s most polluting areas and foreign direct investment in Eastern and Western China’s least polluting provinces. Third, the beneficial effect of green finance occurred at varying optimal thresholds and investment-related conditions across Chinese regions at different quantiles. Lastly, we showed that in contrast to the variable impacts of urbanization, oil prices, and economic growth across Chinese regions at different quantiles, renewable energy, and trade openness reduced CO2 emissions. In conclusion, the study makes some policy recommendations for China’s sustainable economic development, an important model from which other countries can tailor their investment strategies and environmentally friendly policies.
  • 详情 Accounting for the Evolution of China’s Production and Trade Patterns
    This paper studies the evolution of China's production and trade patterns during its integration into the global economy. We document and explain new facts concerning changes in production and exports at the industry and firm levels using microdata and a quantitative Ricardian and Heckscher–Ohlin model with heterogeneous firms. Counterfactual simulations reveal that capital deepening made China's production and exports more capital-intensive, although labor-biased productivity growth acted as a counterforce. Consistent with the data, our model demonstrates that China's trade openness peaked around the mid-2000s and fell until the 2020s, while the world's exposure to Chinese exports rose continuously.
  • 详情 Research on the Mechanism Involved in Urban Inclusiveness and Resident Entrepreneurship: Evidence from China
    Based on three key principles, "equity, openness, and sharing," this paper assesses the relationship, and the internal mechanism driving the relationship, between urban inclusiveness and resident entrepreneurship. This includes constructing an urban inclusiveness index, and analyzing data from the 2018 China General Social Survey (CGSS). The key results indicate that multi-perspective urban inclusiveness has a significant positive effect on resident entrepreneurship. The mechanism analysis shows that urban inclusiveness can improve the probability of residents being entrepreneurial, by improving risk attitude, promoting class mobility, and expanding social networks. A heterogeneity analysis shows that urban inclusiveness has a significant impact on the entrepreneurial choice of local residents, and low-class and high-class residents; urban inclusiveness has no significant impact on the entrepreneurial choice of transient residents and middle-class residents. In addition, urban inclusiveness plays a more significant role in promoting residents’ choice of survival entrepreneurship, compared with opportunistic entrepreneurship. The research conclusions have important policy implications for constructing inclusive cities and for promoting innovation and entrepreneurship vitality.
  • 详情 Does Excessive Green Financing Benefit the Development of Renewable Energy Capacities and Environmental Quality? Evidence From Chinese Provinces
    Fighting global warming has become a vital requirement for environmental sustainability. Green finance has gained popularity as a promising mechanism for transitioning to a lowcarbon economy. Thus, this paper investigates whether excess green financing increases renewable energy capacities and enhances environmental quality from 1992Q1 to 2020Q4 in China, one of the major CO2 emitters. We primarily used the method of moments-quantile regression with fixed-effect models. First, we found nonlinear U-shaped impacts of green finance on wind power capacities in all Chinese regions, thermal power capacities in the Western and Central areas, and hydropower capacities in Eastern China, respectively. Second, we confirmed an inverted U-shaped impact of green finance on CO2 emissions in the Eastern region but U-shaped effects in the Western and Central regions. The impacts of green finance were asymmetrical due to the heterogeneous distributions of renewable energy sources and environmental quality within and between regions. Green finance mostly improved environmental quality when certain conditions and thresholds were met. Third, green finance had substantial marginal effects on environmental quality in the least polluted provinces (Q.20) in Western China and the most polluted provinces (Q.80) in Eastern China. Finally, there were heterogeneous effects of oil prices, urbanization, foreign direct investments, and trade openness on renewable energy consumption and environmental quality across Chinese provinces. Accordingly, this study provides some policy recommendations for China’s sustainable development, a key example from which the international community can adjust its green policies.
  • 详情 The China-U.S. Equity Valuation Gap
    The Chinese earnings yield differential relative to the U.S. switches from negative to positive around 2009, with the aggregate variation masking substantial cross-sector variation. Changes in sectoral composition and (changing) growth expectations are not important determinants of the variation in China-U.S. valuation differentials. Instead, changes in ownership structure, and most importantly cross-sectional and temporal variation in financial openness, are the key contributors. In addition, we show that IPOs in the banking sector and its internationalization played a critical role in the (relative) valuation change.
  • 详情 Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?
    We investigate the role of evidence-based information in shaping individuals’preferences for trade policies through a series of survey experiments that contain randomized information treatments. Each treatment provides a concise statement of economics research findings on how openness to trade has affected labor market outcomes or goods prices. Across annual surveys from 2018-2022, each administered to a representative sample of the U.S. general population, we find that information influences trade policy preferences in complex ways. Information highlighting the link between trade and manufacturing job losses significantly raises expressed preferences for more limits on trade. Strikingly, information on the price benefits of trade (or the cost of tariffs) also induces protectionist policy choices, indicating that these preferences do not respond symmetrically to information on the gains versus losses from trade. We find evidence that these expressed preferences are driven in part by how the received information interacts with one's political identity, resulting in prior-biased belief updating, as well as by pre-existingconcerns over the impact on American jobs and over trade with China. Information that solely communicates the benefits of trade is thus unlikely to succeed unless it addresses these prior beliefs and concerns.