POT

  • 详情 Farmland transfer market transformation: Plot-Level evidence from land consolidation in China
    Farmland transfer in developing countries is characterized by informal contracts. Rich research typically attributes this phenomenon to the lack of property rights and rarely emphasizes the influence of land characteristics themselves. Utilizing plot-level data from 2017-2019 collected in Yangshan County, China, we evaluate the impact of land consolidation on the farmland transfer market transformation. We find that land consolidation has a positive impact on the transformation of farmland transfer markets, instead of its scale expansion. After land consolidation, the scope of transaction partners extends from relationship-based households to anonymous new agricultural operating entities; the transfer rent shifts from being free of charge to being paid; and the transfer duration shifts from short-term to long-term. Mechanism analysis reveals that land consolidation increases land value and reduces transaction costs by improving the endowment of farmland resources, thus driving the farmland transfer market transformation. Further exploration warns that market transformation caused by land consolidation may trigger non-grain farming, leading to a 15.2% reduction in the rice planting area and posing potential risks to food security. These findings enrich the existing studies that only focus on the impact of land rights reform, both theoretically and empirically. In practice, it has important policy implications for countries facing similar difficulties in the farmland transfer market as China.
  • 详情 From Culture to Equity: Unraveling the Relationship between Cultural Tightness and Board Gender Diversity
    Cultural tightness measures the extent to which individuals behave according to the broader values shared by other members in society. While cultural tightness has been studied extensively in the context of individuals’ behavior and (cross) country-level outcomes, much less is known about the explanatory power it holds in the setting of organizational structures. Motivated by the ambiguous relationship between cultural tightness and population-level gender equality documented by prior literature, we investigate whether cultural tightness helps explain board gender diversity levels in China. Rooting our hypotheses in institutional theory and the contextual governmental reforms of China, we leverage a large sample of Chinese A-share listed firms and document that firms located in culturally tight provinces have higher levels of board gender diversity. Further analyses reveal that cultural tightness in China partially offsets the impact of more traditional Confucian values, and the relationship becomes more pronounced in settings where firms can realize higher legitimacy gains from adopting women on their boards. Finally, we counter potential critiques of window dressing, by demonstrating that in culturally tighter areas women are more likely to be higher educated, have more experience abroad, hold more board positions, and are less likely to be independent directors.
  • 详情 Do Political Connections Reduce Customer Complaints? Evidence from China's Online Complaint Platform
    Research Question/Issue: This study investigates whether and how political connections affect customer complaints in the Chinese market, using a comprehensive dataset from the country’s largest online complaint platform. Research Findings/Insights: Analyzing 22,644 firm-year observations from 2018 to 2023, we find that politically connected firms experience significantly fewer customer complaints. A one-unit increase in political connection strength is associated with a 9% reduction in complaints relative to the sample mean. This effect operates through two primary mechanisms: a reputation-motivation channel and a financial resource channel. The mitigating effect is more pronounced for firms in highly marketized regions, those with higher advertising expenditures, companies facing greater earnings pressure, and those with lower tangible asset ratios. Theoretical/Academic Implications: Our study contributes to the literature on political connections and corporate governance by demonstrating how political capital translates into tangible consumer experience advantages. It also advances research on the determinants of customer complaints by highlighting the role of internal governance mechanisms, particularly managerial political ties. Our findings support the Corporate Reputation and Financial Resource Hypotheses while challenging alternative explanations based on regulatory shielding or managerial complacency. Practitioner/Policy Implications: For corporate leaders, our results underscore the importance of reputation management and quality investment, particularly when political connections are absent. Policymakers should consider strengthening public monitoring institutions to reinforce reputational incentives across markets. Investors may use customer complaints as an indicator of product quality and operational stability in their investment decisions.
  • 详情 Pricing Bond-Pledged Repos
    Using proprietary data from China’s interbank bond-pledged repo market, we show that the interest-rate risk and credit risk of the pledged bond are key determinants of repo pricing. From a bond-option perspective, we develop arbitrage-free models that anchor the repo yield curve to the pledged-bond yield curve. The fair repo haircut is interpreted as the per-unit price of a call option on the pledged bond. We extend this framework to incorporate bail-in or bail-out potential, which enhances the model’s empirical performance and provides a novel explanation for systematic repo cheapness and existence of negative haircuts.
  • 详情 Mean Reversion in Trading Volume and Informational Efficiency: Evidence from China's Stock Market
    This study examines the mean-reversion behavior of trading volume in China’s A-share market, with a focus on the speed at which abnormal surges dissipate. We compare two competing hypotheses: the stealth-trading hypothesis, where persistent volume reflects order-splitting by informed traders, and the informational-efficiency hypothesis, which interprets faster reversion as a sign of efficient information absorption. Using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) model, we estimate the reversion speed for over 3,000 stocks and link it to firm- and industry-level characteristics. We find that trading volume is strongly mean-reverting, with over 98% of stocks classified as stationary. The OU model forecasts reversion speed with less than 7% error. Faster reversion is associated with larger size, higher analyst coverage, lower volatility, and greater liquidity. Notably, reversion speed increased after the 2006 IFRS reform but declined following Stock Connect, suggesting that stock market policies can influence informational efficiency. Our OU-based methodology offers a simple, observable proxy for monitoring how quickly markets process information. These results position trading volume as a core variable in market microstructure research and policy evaluation.
  • 详情 Overwork Intensity and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Evidence from Satellite Nighttime Lights in China
    Overwork intensity (OI) is a salient issue that directly affects employees’ motivation and productivity. By using a novel dataset of overwork intensity constructed from daily high-resolution nightlight satellite images, we examine whether overwork intensity is a priced risk in the cross-section of stock returns. We show that a zero-investment portfolio that buys the highest OI quintile stocks and shorts the lowest OI quintile stocks earns 0.495% returns per month. This result is robust when controlling for various well-known risk factors. We argue and empirically verify that profftability, corporate governance, investor sentiment and lottery preference are the potential channels that drive the result.
  • 详情 The Externalities of Foreign Investor Disclosure
    We examine the influence of foreign equity flows on China's unique retail-dominated stock market, identifying a novel channel through which investors’ herding creates significant market externalities. We find that the daily disclosure of foreign investors' positions induces local investors to imitate these trades, resulting in observable short-term price distortions followed by reversals. Our analyses, which include inflow predictability tied to disclosure timing and path analysis decomposition, confirm that the herding effect, largely driven by retail participants, is more impactful than the direct effect based on the informational content of foreign capital. Furthermore, inflated stock prices resulting from the herding behavior cause public firms to overvalue and overinvest, leading to reduced investment efficiencies. These findings highlight potential adverse consequences stemming from specific stock market liberalization designs.
  • 详情 Finding Core Balanced Modules in Statistically Validated Stock Networks
    Traditional threshold-based stock networks suffer from subjective parameter selection and inherent limitations: they constrain relationships to binary representations, failing to capture both correlation strength and negative dependencies. To address this, we introduce statistically validated correlation networks that retain only statistically significant correlations via a rigorous t-test of Pearson coefficients. We then propose a novel structure termed the largest strong-correlation balanced module (LSCBM), defined as the maximum-size group of stocks with structural balance (i.e., positive edge-sign products for all triplets) and strong pairwise correlations. This balance condition ensures stable relationships, thus facilitating potential hedging opportunities through negative edges. Theoretically, within a random signed graph model, we establish LSCBM’s asymptotic existence, size scaling, and multiplicity under various parameter regimes. To detect LSCBM efficiently, we develop MaxBalanceCore, a heuristic algorithm that leverages network sparsity. Simulations validate its efficiency, demonstrating scalability to networks of up to 10,000 nodes within tens of seconds. Empirical analysis demonstrates that LSCBM identifies core market subsystems that dynamically reorganize in response to economic shifts and crises. In the Chinese stock market (2013–2024), LSCBM’s size surges during high-stress periods (e.g., the 2015 crash) and contracts during stable or fragmented regimes, while its composition rotates annually across dominant sectors (e.g., Industrials and Financials).
  • 详情 Reversion Speed in Trading Volume as a Proxy for Informational Efficiency: A Case Study of China
    This study investigates the mean-reversion behavior of trading volume, using China’s A-share market as a representative setting characterized by dispersed retail investors, frequent public disclosures, and active policy interventions. We compare two competing interpretations:the stealth-trading hypothesis, in which persistent volume reflects order-splitting by informed investors, and the informational efficiency hypothesis, which links faster volume reversion to more effective information processing. Using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) model, we estimate reversion speeds for over 3,000 stocks and relate these to firm- and industry-level characteristics. We find that trading volume is broadly mean-reverting, with over 98% of stocks exhibiting stationarity. The OU model forecasts reversion speed with less than 7% error. Faster reversion is associated with larger firm size, greater analyst coverage, lower volatility, and higher liquidity. Notably, reversion speed increased after accounting reforms but declined following capital access liberalization, suggesting that regulatory policy can both enhance and impair informational efficiency. These findings position reversion speed as an observable proxy for market responsiveness and highlight trading volume as a central variable in empirical market microstructure research.
  • 详情 The Impact of China's Digital Financial Inclusion on Multidimensional Poverty of Households
    Does digital financial inclusion alleviate poverty? This study investigates this question by integrating the Digital Financial Inclusion Index of Peking University with microdata from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to examine how the expansion of digital financial inclusion affects household multidimensional poverty in China. Anchored in Amartya Sen ’ s capability approach and operationalized through the Alkire–Foster (A–F) framework, the study identifies multidimensional poverty across five key dimensions: income, health, education, insurance, and living standards. Probit models are employed to estimate how digital financial inclusion influences both the likelihood and structure of multidimensional poverty, while instrumental variable techniques are used to address potential endogeneity. Beyond the average effects, the study further explores the mechanisms through which digital financial inclusion contributes to poverty alleviation, focusing on three channels—promoting household consumption, increasing financial investment, and enhancing access to credit. The results reveal that digital financial inclusion significantly mitigates multidimensional poverty, particularly by improving income, living standards, and health outcomes, though its effects on education and insurance are limited. These findings underscore the transformative role of digital finance in fostering inclusive growth, suggesting that policies expanding digital financial infrastructure and literacy can amplify its poverty-reducing effects and advance equitable development.