POT

  • 详情 Pricing Liquidity Under Preference Uncertainty: The Role of Heterogeneously Informed Traders
    This study highlights asymmetries in liquidity risk pricing from the perspective of heterogeneously informed traders facing changing levels of preference uncertainty. We hypothesize that higher illiquidity premium and liquidity risk betas may arise simultaneously in circumstances where investors are asymmetrically informed about their trading counterparts’ preferences and their financial firms’ timely valuations of assets . We first test the time-varying state transition patterns of IML, a traded liquidity factor of the return premium on illiquid-minus-liquid stocks, using a Markov regime-switching framework. We then investigate how the conditional price of the systematic risk of the IML fluctuate over time subject to changing levels of preference uncertainty. Empirical results from the Chinese stock market support our hypotheses that investors’ sensitivity to the IML systematic risk conditionally increase in times of higher preference uncertainty as proxied by the stock turnover and order imbalance. Further policy impact analyses suggest that China’s market liberalization efforts, contingent upon its recent stock connect and margin trading programs, reduce the conditional price of liquidity risk for affected stocks by helping the incorporation of information into stock prices more efficiently. Tighter macroeconomic funding conditions, on the contrary, conditionally increase the price of liquidity that investors require.
  • 详情 The Transformative Role of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data in Banking
    This paper examines how the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and big data affects banking operations, emphasizing the crucial role of big data in unlocking the full potential of AI. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset of over 4.5 million loans issued by a leading commercial bank in China and exploiting a policy mandate as an exogenous shock, we document significant improvements in credit rating accuracy and loan performance, particularly for SMEs. Specifically, the adoption of AI and big data reduces the rate of unclassified credit ratings by 40.1% and decreases loan default rates by 29.6%. Analyzing the bank's phased implementation, we find that integrating big data analytics substantially enhances the effectiveness of AI models. We further identify significant heterogeneity: improvements are especially pronounced for unsecured and short-term loans, borrowers with incomplete financial records, first-time borrowers, long-distance borrowers, and firms located in economically underdeveloped or linguistically diverse regions. Our findings underscore the powerful synergy between big data and AI, demonstrating their joint capability to alleviate information frictions and enhance credit allocation efficiency.
  • 详情 FinTech Platforms and Asymmetric Network Effects: Theory and Evidence from Marketplace Lending
    We conceptually identify and empirically verify the features distinguishing FinTech platforms from non-financial platforms using marketplace lending data. Specifically, we highlight three key features: (i) Long-term contracts introducing default risk at both the individual and platform levels; (ii) Lenders’ investment diversification to mitigate individual default risk; (iii) Platform-level default risk leading to greater asymmetric user stickiness and rendering platform-level cross-side network effects (p-CNEs), a novel metric we introduce, crucial for adoption and market dynamics. We incorporate these features into a model of two-sided FinTech platform with potential failures and endogenous participation and fee structures. Our model predicts lenders’ single-homing, occasional lower fees for borrowers, asymmetric p-CNEs, and the predictive power of lenders’ p-CNEs in forecasting platform failures. Empirical evidence from China’s marketplace lending industry, characterized by frequent market entries, exits, and strong network externalities, corroborates our theoretical predictions. We find that lenders’ p-CNEs are systematically lower on declining or well-established platforms compared to those on emerging or rapidly growing platforms. Furthermore, lenders’ p-CNEs serve as an early indicator of platform survival likelihood, even at the initial stages of market development. Our findings provide novel economic insights into the functioning of multi-sided FinTech platforms, offering valuable implications for both industry practitioners and financial regulators.
  • 详情 How Does China's Household Portfolio Selection Vary with Financial Inclusion?
    Portfolio underdiversification is one of the most costly losses accumulated over a household’s life cycle. We provide new evidence on the impact of financial inclusion services on households’ portfolio choice and investment efficiency using 2015, 2017, and 2019 survey data for Chinese households. We hypothesize that higher financial inclusion penetration encourages households to participate in the financial market, leading to better portfolio diversification and investment efficiency. The results of the baseline model are consistent with our proposed hypothesis that higher accessibility to financial inclusion encourages households to invest in risky assets and increases investment efficiency. We further estimate a dynamic double machine learning model to quantitatively investigate the non-linear causal effects and track the dynamic change of those effects over time. We observe that the marginal effect increases over time, and those effects are more pronounced among low-asset, less-educated households and those located in non-rural areas, except for investment efficiency for high-asset households.
  • 详情 The Impacts of Green Credit Policy on Green Innovation and Financial Assets Reallocation of Enterprises in China
    This study assesses the impact of China’s Green Credit Guidelines (GCG) 2012 on the quality of firms’ green innovation and their financial asset allocations. While examining patent applications and grants, our findings reveal that, although the GCG 2012 led to a significant increase in green patent applications, its influence on granted patents, especially in the invention category, was minimal. This highlights a discrepancy between innovation intent and quality, suggesting that highpolluting enterprises (HPEs) prioritize rapid policy compliance rather than substantial environmental improvements. However, HPEs seem to prioritize liquidity over long-term financialization, potentially indicating enhanced credit allocation efficiency.
  • 详情 Standing Up or Standing By: Abnormally Hot Temperature and Corporate Environmental Engagement
    This study investigates how abnormally hot temperatures affect firms’ environmental behavior in China. We find that firms exposed to abnormally hot temperatures participate in more environmental engagement. We also find that this improvement effect is driven mainly by environmental concerns, including public concerns, CEOs, and governments. Our results remain intact after an array of robustness tests. Further analysis shows that the effect of abnormally hot temperatures on corporate environmental engagement is more pronounced in SOEs, heavily polluting firms, and firms located closer to local environmental protection agencies. Moreover, the positive impact of environmental engagement on firm value is stronger when firms are exposed to abnormally hot temperatures. Overall, this study sheds light on the potential stimulation of firms’ environmental actions by global warming, which is yet to be fully understood.
  • 详情 The Safety Shield: How Classified Boards Benefit Rank-and-File Employees
    This study examines how classified boards affect workplace safety, an important dimension of employee welfare. Using comprehensive establishment-level injury data from the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration and a novel classified board database, we document that firms with classified boards experience 12-13% lower workplace injury rates. To establish causality, we employ instrumental variable and difference-in-differences approaches exploiting staggered board declassifications. The safety benefits of classified boards operate through increased safety expenditures, reduced employee workloads, and enhanced external monitoring through analyst coverage. These effects are strongest in financially constrained firms and those with weaker monitoring mechanisms. Our findings support the bonding hypothesis that anti-takeover provisions facilitate long-term value creation by protecting stakeholder relationships and provide novel evidence that classified boards benefit rank-and-file employees, not just executives and major customers. The results reveal an important mechanism through which governance structures impact employee welfare and challenge the conventional view that classified boards primarily serve managerial entrenchment.
  • 详情 The Unintended Real Effects of Regulator-Led Minority Shareholder Activism: Evidence from Corporate Innovation
    We investigate the unintended real effects of regulator-led minority shareholder activism on corporate innovation. We use manually collected data from the China Securities Investor Services Center (CSISC), a novel regulatory investor protection institution controlled by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) that holds 100 shares of every listed firm. We find that by exercising its shareholder rights, the CSISC substantially curtails the innovation output of targeted firms. This effect is amplified in cases involving a high level of myopic pressure and few innovation incentives. We further observe variation in the real effects of different intervention methods. Textual analysis reveals that CSISC intervention with a myopic topic and negative tone contributes to a decrease in innovation. The results of a mechanism analysis support the hypothesis that regulator-led minority shareholder activism induces managerial myopia and financial constraints, impeding corporate innovation. Furthermore, CSISC intervention not only diminishes innovation output but also undermines innovation efficiency. In summary, our findings suggest that regulator-led minority shareholder activism exacerbates managerial myopia to cater to investors and financial constraints, ultimately stifling corporate innovation.
  • 详情 Measuring Systemic Risk Contribution: A Higher-Order Moment Augmented Approach
    Individual institutions marginal contributions to the systemic risk contain predictive power for its potential future exposure and provide early warning signals to regulators and the public. We use higher-order co-skewness and co-kurtosis to construct systemic risk contribution measures, which allow us to identify and characterize the co-movement driving the asymmetry and tail behavior of the joint distribution of asset returns. We illustrate the usefulness of higher-order moment augmented approach by using 4868 stocks living in the Chinese market from June 2002 to March 2022. The empirical results show that these higher-order moment measures convey useful information for systemic risk contribution measurement and portfolio selection, complementary to the information extracted from a standard principal components analysis.
  • 详情 Unleashing Fintech's Potential: A Catalyst for Green Bonds Issuance
    Financial technology, also known as Fintech, is transforming our daily life and revolutionizing the financial industry. Yet at present, consensus regarding the effect of Fintech on green bonds market is lacking. With novel data from China, this study documents robust evidence showing that Fintech development can significantly boost green bonds issuance. Further analysis suggests that this promotion effect occurs by empowering intermediary institutions and increasing social environmental awareness. Additionally, we investigate the heterogeneous effect and find that the positive relation is more pronounced for bonds without high ratings and in cities connected with High-Speed Railways network. The results call for the attention from policymakers and security managers to take further notice of Fintech utilization in green finance products.